A new confidence interval in measurement error model with the reliability ratio known

For the slope parameter of the measurement error model with the reliability ratio known, this article constructs a fiducial generalized confidence interval (FGCI) which is proved to have correct asymptotic coverage. Simulation results demonstrate that the FGCI often outperforms the existing intervals in terms of empirical coverage probability, average interval length, and false parameter coverage rate. Two examples are also provided to illustrate our approach.     

Parallel and interacting stochastic approximation annealing algorithms for global optimisation

We present the parallel and interacting stochastic approximation annealing (PISAA) algorithm, a stochastic simulation procedure for global optimisation, that extends and improves the stochastic approximation annealing (SAA) by using population Monte Carlo ideas. The efficiency of standard SAA algorithm crucially depends on its self-adjusting mechanism which presents stability issues in high dimensional or rugged optimisation problems. The proposed algorithm involves simulating a population of SAA chains that interact each other in a manner that significantly improves the stability of the self-adjusting mechanism and the search for the global optimum in the sampling space, as well as it inherits SAA desired convergence properties when a square-root cooling schedule is used. It can be implemented in parallel computing environments in order to mitigate the computational overhead. As a result, PISAA can address complex optimisation problems that it would be difficult for SAA to satisfactory address. We demonstrate the good performance of the proposed algorithm on challenging applications including Bayesian network learning and protein folding. Our numerical comparisons suggest that PISAA outperforms the simulated annealing, stochastic approximation annealing, and annealing evolutionary stochastic approximation Monte Carlo.     

基于贝叶斯学习的惩罚因子的选择

文章基于贝叶斯学习,将正则化方法从贝叶斯分析的角度展开,在响应变量服从正态分布、回归系数服从指数型先验分布族的条件下,用贝叶斯准则给出了惩罚因子的取值与响应变量、系数的方差之间的关系,并将这一结果应用到岭回归和lasso回归中惩罚因子的选择.实例检验结果表明,当响应变量和系数服从正态分布,惩罚因子的值取二者方差商的方法比岭迹法和广义交叉验证法(GCV)拟合效果更优.     

Can the minimum living standard guarantee scheme enable the poor to escape the poverty trap in rural China?

The rural Minimum Living Standard Guarantee (Dibao) Scheme is the most important social assistance programme in rural China. However, how the rural Dibao programme affects household expenditures and whether it can enable the poor to escape the poverty trap are questions that remain largely unexplored. This study used data from the 2012 Rural Household Survey in China to investigate the impact of the rural Dibao programme on household expenditures. We found that the programme significantly improved the well‐being of low‐income households. Particularly, the programme significantly increased household expenditures on housing, education and health; furthermore, the impact was greater for households with educated household heads. However, the programme did not significantly affect household expenditures on food, transportation or farming inputs. The results imply that participation in the rural Dibao programme induces household investment in human capital, which could help to break the inter‐generational transmission of poverty and raise long‐run welfare.     

The impact of age,BMI and sex hormone on aging males’ symptoms and the international index of erectile function scores

Objective: To analyze the impact of age, BMI and sex hormone on aging males’ symptoms (AMS) and the 5-item version of the international index of erectile function (IIEF-5) scores in middle-aged and elderly Chinese men.

Methods: A population-based cross-sectional study was conducted in Jiashan County. A total of 969 men, aged between 40 and 80 years old, were admitted. Physical examination and the sex hormones were measured, and AMS and IIEF-5 scores were assessed.

Results: The oneway ANOVA analysis indicated older age groups had higher AMS total-scores, somatic and sexual sub-scores, and lower IIEF5 scores (all p?r_pairwise) analyses showed the significant associations between AMS and age or sex hormone (cFT, Bio-T, SHBG, and LH) levels, and similar for IIEF5. However, when age was adjusted, the correlation coefficients (r_partial) weakened, and correlation significance disappeared, except LH (for AMS: r_partial?=?0.096, p?=?.009; for IIEF-5: r_partial?= ?0.140, p?=?.001). Multiple linear regressions confirmed the influence of increased age and LH on the AMS and IIEF5 scores.

Conclusion: CFT, Bio-T and SHBG failed to yield any additional predicting information when age was adjusted. To improve the male reproductive health, future research should pay more attention on aging-related comorbidities and how to improve general wellness.     

Variable selection for semiparametric proportional hazards model under progressive Type-II censoring

Variable selection is an effective methodology for dealing with models with numerous covariates. We consider the methods of variable selection for semiparametric Cox proportional hazards model under the progressive Type-II censoring scheme. The Cox proportional hazards model is used to model the influence coefficients of the environmental covariates. By applying Breslow’s “least information” idea, we obtain a profile likelihood function to estimate the coefficients. Lasso-type penalized profile likelihood estimation as well as stepwise variable selection method are explored as means to find the important covariates. Numerical simulations are conducted and Veteran’s Administration Lung Cancer data are exploited to evaluate the performance of the proposed method.     

t-Type corrected-loss estimation for error-in-variable model

In this article, we consider a linear model in which the covariates are measured with errors. We propose a t-type corrected-loss estimation of the covariate effect, when the measurement error follows the Laplace distribution. The proposed estimator is asymptotically normal. In practical studies, some outliers that diminish the robustness of the estimation occur. Simulation studies show that the estimators are resistant to vertical outliers and an application of 6-minute walk test is presented to show that the proposed method performs well.     

The reproductive health indices and sex hormone levels in middle-aged and elderly Chinese men

Objective: The aim of this study was to analyze the age-related recession trajectory of reproductive health indices in middle-aged and elderly Chinese men.

Methods: A population-based cross-sectional study was conducted in Jiashan County, Zhejiang in 2012. Healthy men between 40 and 80 years of age were considered eligible for the study. Physical examination and the sex hormones were measured. The subjects were assessed based on the 5-item version of the International Index of Erectile Function (IIEF-5) for Erectile Dysfunction (ED), and Aging Males’ Symptoms (AMS) scale for Symptomatic Late-Onset Hypogonadism (SLOH).

Results: TG showed a decrease at age 60 years. Testis volume and TT did not show significant difference among the four age groups; cFT began to decrease at age 50 years and Bio-T decreased faster at age 50 years. SHBG and LH increased faster at age 50 and 70 years, respectively. IIEF5 score decrease faster at age 60 years. AMS scores increased faster at age 70 years. With the increase in age, the symptoms of ED and SLOH became severer.

Conclusion: Different indices on reproductive health of men showed turning points at different ages. At first, androgenic sex hormones decreased faster, and then erectile dysfunction got severer, and the last overall male syndromes declined.     

供给侧结构性改革与上海发展——“供给侧改革与持续性增长”研讨会综述

推进供给侧结构性改革,目前首先要加强需求侧管理,要实施积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策等扩张性政策,在稳定和扩大需求的前提下,实现中长期供给侧结构性改革.对上海等一些经济较为发达的区域而言,推进供给侧结构性改革,要把握好“三去一降一补”的顺序,应该从补短板开始,再降成本,然后去产能、去库存、去杠杆.     

Effects of Social Supports on the Career Choice Consideration of Chinese Farmers: A Social Cognitive Perspective

Drawing from social cognitive career theory ( Lent, Brown, & Hackett, 1994 ), this study explored social supports’ influence on the career choice consideration of farmers during China's current process of urbanization. A questionnaire was designed based on interviews with 140 people and a pretest with a sample of 419 participants. A total of 628 participants were involved in the formal questionnaire survey. Results indicated that social supports had a dual effect: Positive supports were indirectly related to career choice consideration through the mediation of career self‐efficacy, whereas negative supports were related to career choice consideration directly. Implications for future research and the development of a career guidance and social support system for Chinese farmers are discussed.