An extended semiparametric model for short-term and long-term hazard ratios

In survival analysis, one way to deal with non-proportional hazards is to model short-term and long-term hazard ratios. The existing model of this nature has no control over how fast the hazard ratio is changing over time. We add a parameter to the existing model to allow the hazard ratio to change over time at different speed. A nonparametric maximum likelihood approach is used to estimate the model parameters. The existing model is a special case of the extended model when the speed parameter is 0, which leads naturally to a way of testing the adequacy of the existing model. Simulation results show that there can be substantial bias in the estimation of the short-term and long-term hazard ratio if the speed parameter is fixed incorrectly at 0 rather than estimated. The extended model is fitted to three real data sets to shed new insights, including the observation that converging hazards does not necessarily imply the odds are proportional.     

Some implications of common consequences in lotteries

This work studies the implications of some aspects of preferences toward risk in the choice between two binary lotteries exhibiting a common consequence. The results obtained are then applied to two different problems: the choice between two risky challenges characterized by different rewards in the case of success and different probabilities of success and the choice between self-protection and self-insurance in the presence of the risk of incurring financial loss.

     

Second generation Caribbean black male youths discuss obstacles to educational and employment opportunities: a critical race counter-narrative analysis

This study explores obstacles to navigating the high school-to-labor market transition experienced by Second Generation Caribbean Black Male Youth (CBMY) living in Canada's Greater Toronto Area (GTA). Drawing upon interviews with ten CBMY between the ages of 18–27, the article uses a qualitative phenomenological methodology to understand barriers to education and employment from their perspectives. Studies show that 45% of CBMY drop out of high school while 52% are precariously employed in the GTA [Allahar, A. L. 2010. “The Political Economy of ‘Race’ and Class in Canada’s Caribbean Diaspora.” American Review of Political Economy 8 (2): 54; James, C. E. 2012. Students “at Risk” Stereotypes and the Schooling of Black Boys. Urban Education 47 (2), 464–494.; Lewchuk, W., and M. Lafleche. 2014. Precarious Employment and Social Outcomes. Just Labour: A Canadian Journal of Work and Society, 22, 45–50.; Block and Galabuzi 2011. Canada’s Color Coded Labor market: The Gap for Racialized workers. Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives?=?Centre Canadien de Politiques alternatives]. The ten interview subjects provide retrospective and introspective counter-narratives that expose the race, class and gender-based barriers that frustrate their efforts to secure stable employment. The study utilizes Critical Race Theory (CRT) and the concept of White Supremacy to challenge the view that educational and employment success is based on color-blindness, merit and hard work. The CBMY counter-narratives examined in this study offer profound insight into dominant ideologies and practices that perpetuate racial biases, and present many valuable suggestions, explicit and implied, regarding how to improve the opportunities, inclusion and well-being of CBMY.     

Wealth and inheritance in Britain from 1896 to the present

Personal wealth has grown since the 1970s twice as fast in real terms as national income. Has this rise in the wealth-income ratio led to a corresponding increase in the wealth being passed on from one generation to the next? Are we returning to the levels of inheritance found in the 19th century? The aim of this paper is to construct UK evidence on the extent of the transmission of wealth in the form of estates and gifts inter vivos. It takes a long-run view of inheritance, starting from 1896, when the modern Estate Duty was introduced, and exploits the extensive estate data published over the years. Construction of a long-run time series for more than a century is challenging, and there are important limitations. The resulting time-series demonstrates the major importance of inheritance in the UK before the First World War, when the total transmitted wealth represented some 20 per cent of net national income. In the inter-war period, the total was around 15 per cent, falling to some 10 per cent after the Second World War, and then falling further to below 5 per cent in the late 1970s. Since then, there has indeed been an upturn: a rise from 4.8 per cent in 1977 to 8.2 per cent in 2006. This increase was more or less in line with the increase in personal wealth, and has to be interpreted in the light of the changing net worth of the corporate and public sectors of the economy.     

From classes to copulas: wages,capital, and top incomes

Public debates about the rise in top income shares often focus on the growing dispersion in earnings, and the soaring pay for top executives and financial-sector employees. But can the change in the marginal distribution of earnings on its own explain the rise in top income shares? Are top executives replacing capital owners in the group of top-income earners, or are we rather witnessing a fusion of top capital and top earnings? This paper proposes an extension of the copula framework and uses it for exploring the changing composition of top incomes. It illustrates that changes in top income shares can easily be decomposed into respective changes in the marginal distributions of labour and capital income and the changing association between the two types of income. An application using tax record data from Norway shows that the association between top labour and capital incomes grew stronger between 1995 and 2005 in the top half of the wage and capital income distribution, though it declined for the top 1% of capital income receivers. A gender decomposition demonstrates that the association of wage and capital incomes at the top is particularly striking for men, whilst women are largely under-represented in the top halves of the two marginal distributions.     

Inferences About Sexual Orientation: The Roles of Stereotypes,Faces, and The Gaydar Myth

In the present work, we investigated the pop cultural idea that people have a sixth sense, called “gaydar,” to detect who is gay. We propose that “gaydar” is an alternate label for using stereotypes to infer orientation (e.g., inferring that fashionable men are gay). Another account, however, argues that people possess a facial perception process that enables them to identify sexual orientation from facial structure. We report five experiments testing these accounts. Participants made gay-or-straight judgments about fictional targets that were constructed using experimentally manipulated stereotypic cues and real gay/straight people's face cues. These studies revealed that orientation is not visible from the face—purportedly “face-based” gaydar arises from a third-variable confound. People do, however, readily infer orientation from stereotypic attributes (e.g., fashion, career). Furthermore, the folk concept of gaydar serves as a legitimizing myth: Compared to a control group, people stereotyped more often when led to believe in gaydar, whereas people stereotyped less when told gaydar is an alternate label for stereotyping. Discussion focuses on the implications of the gaydar myth and why, contrary to some prior claims, stereotyping is highly unlikely to result in accurate judgments about orientation.     

The Role of Household Social Organization in the Structure of Rural Economies: Comparing Forest Resource Dependent and Agriculturally Dependent Regions in Russia

Sociologists have examined how structural economic change affects household social organization and generation of household income from different sources. The introduction of elements of a market economy into rural Russia in the early 1990s provides a unique opportunity to examine these relationships. Much of the work on this topic, however, has been conducted in black earth zone, agriculturally dependent regions. Less attention has been given to non‐black‐earth zone, forest resource dependent regions. This article addresses this limitation by comparing the relationships between household income generation strategies and household social organization in a 2009 survey of villages in three forest resource dependent regions in northwest Russia with findings from a 2006 survey of households in nine agricultural regions of Russia. Income generated from enterprises based on household social organization—household labor and social helping networks—is substantially greater in agriculturally dependent than in forest resource dependent regions. We discuss the implications of these findings for understanding intranational regional differences in the relationship between economic systems, household social organization, and rural household economies as well as the obstacles facing policymakers and environmentalists who attempt to shift household income generation strategies away from an environmentally harmful lumber industry to income generation activities that are less harmful to the environment.     

Identifying Mental Disorder from the Faces of Women with Borderline Personality Disorder

Although appearance-based cues can help to diagnose physical illness, visual manifestations of mental disorder may be more elusive. Here, we investigated whether individuals could distinguish women with a serious mental disorder (borderline personality disorder) from demographically- and IQ-matched non-psychiatric controls. Participants rated mentally ill targets as more likely to have a mental disorder from photos more accurately than chance, despite not believing that such judgments were possible. The configuration of facial cues played an important role in these judgments, as interfering with the spatial relationships between facial features reduced participants’ accuracy to chance guessing. Further investigation showed similar results when participants rated the targets for specific mental disorders (borderline personality disorder, major depressive disorder) and rated the mentally ill targets as more depressed, angry, anxious, disgusted, emotionally unstable, distressed, and less happy. Moreover, the depression ratings significantly correlated with the targets’ actual depressive symptoms. Thus, individuals may be able to infer aspects of mental disorder from minimal facial cues.     

Occupational Engagement and Academic Major Satisfaction: Vocational Identity's Mediating Role

This study examined vocational identity as a mediator of the relationship between occupational engagement (i.e., participation in a breadth of activities and interactions) and academic major satisfaction. Furthermore, the authors evaluated whether satisfaction with academic major related to academic success (i.e., grade point average). The mediational model was tested in a sample of undergraduate students (N = 215). Results indicated that occupational engagement significantly predicted academic major satisfaction and that vocational identity fully mediated that relationship. These findings support occupational engagement as an important contributor to adaptive career decision making and encourage research on occupational engagement as an intervention point for career counselors.     

100 key research questions for the post‐2015 development agenda

The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) herald a new phase for international development. This article presents the results of a consultative exercise to collaboratively identify 100 research questions of critical importance for the post‐2015 international development agenda. The final shortlist is grouped into nine thematic areas and was selected by 21 representatives of international and non‐governmental organisations and consultancies, and 14 academics with diverse disciplinary expertise from an initial pool of 704 questions submitted by 110 organisations based in 34 countries. The shortlist includes questions addressing long‐standing problems, new challenges and broader issues related to development policies, practices and institutions. Collectively, these questions are relevant for future development‐related research priorities of governmental and non‐governmental organisations worldwide and could act as focal points for transdisciplinary research collaborations.