THE HARDER THE TASK,THE HIGHER THE SCORE: FINDINGS OF A DIFFICULTY BIAS

Studies have found that going first or last in a sequential order contest leads to a biased outcome, commonly called order bias (or primacy and recency). Studies have also found that judges have a tendency to reward contestants they recognize with additional points, called reference bias. Controlling for known biases, we test for a new type of bias we refer to as “difficulty bias,” which reveals that athletes attempting more difficult routines receive higher execution scores, even when difficulty and execution are judged separately. Despite some identification challenges, we add to the literature by finding strong evidence of a difficulty bias in gymnastics. We also provide generalizations beyond athletics. (JEL L10, L83, D81, J70, Z1)     

Assessing the Validity and Reliability of the Perceptions of the Consent to Sex Scale

Although sexual assault prevention education tends to focus on consent promotion as a means to reduce rates of sexual assault, little is known about how college students consent to sexual activity. The current study aimed to better understand college students' consent via the systematic development of the Consent to Sex Scale (CSS), utilizing mixed methods via three phases and two waves of data collection. In Phase 1, qualitative data were collected from college students (n = 185) to provide a foundation for item writing. In Phase 2, closed-ended items were written for a quantitative instrument and reviewed by a team of experts. In Phase 3, a quantitative survey, including items written in Phase 2, was administered to college students (n = 685); the measure was assessed for its psychometric properties. Exploratory factor analysis was utilized, resulting in a five-factor solution. The CSS and corresponding factors demonstrated high internal consistency reliability and expected gender differences, supporting the construct validity of the measure. The CSS assesses college students' cues for indicating consent to sex, a construct not addressed by previous measures. The validated scale may be useful in future research to better understand how consent relates to other behaviors or constructs.     

Percentile Related Bounds and Estimator for the Mean of the Negative Binomial Distribution

Upper and lower bounds are obtained for the mean of the negative binomial distribution. These bounds are simple functions of a percentile determined by the shape parameter. The result is then used to obtain a robust estimate of the mean when the shape parameter is known.     

Period Parity Progression Ratios and Birth Intervals in England and Wales, 1941–1971: A Synthetic Life Table Analysis

A method is presented for analysing maternity history data to provide period estimates of parity progression ratios, birth intervals and related indices. This is applied to a sample of the marriage and maternity histories from the Census of England and Wales of 1971 and shows: (a) a general increase through the 1950s and into the 1960s in period estimates of marriage and parity progression ratios, especially in the progression from first to second birth; (b) a general acceleration of fertility with, again, the second birth interval becoming particularly short and compact; and (c) very steep declines in third and fourth birth progression ratios from the mid-1960s. Birth interval distributions altered during the period examined. Decomposition of a progression-based total fertility index shows change in the ratios for lower birth orders to have dominated the fertility upswing and declines in ratios for higher birth orders to have initiated the subsequent decline.     

Theory and Validity of Life Satisfaction Scales

National accounts of subjective well-being are being considered and adopted by nations. In order to be useful for policy deliberations, the measures of life satisfaction must be psychometrically sound. The reliability, validity, and sensitivity to change of life satisfaction measures are reviewed. The scales are stable under unchanging conditions, but are sensitive to changes in circumstances in people’s lives. Several types of data indicate that the scales validly reflect the quality of respondents’ lives: (1) Differences between nations in life satisfaction associated with differences in objective conditions, (2) Differences between groups who live in different circumstances, (3) Correlations with nonself-report measures of life satisfaction, (4) Genetic and physiological associations with life satisfaction, (5) Systematic patterns of change in the scales before, during, and after significant life events, and (6) Prediction by life satisfaction scores of future behaviors such as suicide. The life satisfaction scales can be influenced by factors such as question order, current mood, and mode of presentation, but in most cases these can be controlled. Our model of life satisfaction judgments points to the importance of attention, values, standards, and top-down effects. Although the scales are useful in research on individual well-being, there are policy questions that need more analysis and research, such as which types of subjective well-being measures are most relevant to which types of policies, how standards influence scores, and how best to associate the scores with current policy deliberations.     

Sequential estimation problems for negative exponential populations

The literature on sequential estimation problems for negative exponential populations has been reviewed here, We attempt to bring in all the published and unpublished materials known to us in a fairly coherent fashion. Both the concepts and theoretical findings are discussed.     

Human Health Risk Assessment of Penicillin/Aminopenicillin Resistance in Enterococci Due to Penicillin Use in Food Animals

Penicillin and ampicillin drugs are approved for use in food animals in the United States to treat, control, and prevent diseases, and penicillin is approved for use to improve growth rates in pigs and poultry. This article considers the possibility that such uses might increase the incidence of ampicillin-resistant Enterococcus faecium (AREF) of animal origin in human infections, leading to increased hospitalization and mortality due to reduced response to ampicillin or penicillin. We assess the risks from continued use of penicillin-based drugs in food animals in the United States, using several assumptions to overcome current scientific uncertainties and data gaps. Multiplying the total at-risk population of intensive care unit (ICU) patients by a series of estimated factors suggests that not more than 0.04 excess mortalities per year (under conservative assumptions) to 0.14 excess mortalities per year (under very conservative assumptions) might be prevented in the whole U.S. population if current use of penicillin drugs in food animals were discontinued and if this successfully reduced the prevalence of AREF infections among ICU patients. These calculations suggest that current penicillin usage in food animals in the United States presents very low (possibly zero) human health risks.