The impact of drug education and prevention programs. Disparity between impressionistic and empirical assessments

In the course of evaluating drug prevention programs for youth, we observed that although staff perceived the programs had quite favorably affected youths' attitudes and behavior, responses from these youths showed little significant impact on their use or attitudes related to drugs. This article explores several explanations for the disparity between staff impressions of the impact of these programs and results from attempts to measure impact objectivity. The analysis considers (a) clients' risk-level for drug use, (b) expectations as to how programs affect client behavior and attitudes, and (c) the sensitivity of empirical measures to ascertain changes reflecting impact of the program.     

The assembly of active participation by parents of children subject to a multi‐agency model of early intervention in child and family services

The Common Assessment Framework provides a model of early intervention, which is familiar in local authorities throughout England, and asserts a participatory framework of child and family engagement. This paper is based on a qualitative study of parents and children who were subject to a multi‐agency process of early intervention in children's social care in a local authority in the Midlands of England. I advance the concept of assemblage to consider the basis of an active service user participation as rather more a struggle to achieve than something that has been granted by practitioner agencies. Interview extracts are used to show the enrolment and assembly of participation as a process of service users developing their active human agency in a multi‐agency setting. The article explores the assembling of skills in administration and management of meetings and plans, accessing knowledge and expertise through service user networks, and challenging professional expertise and institutional space while developing personal qualities of confidence and voice as a means of marshalling an effective participation in a multi‐agency setting.     

AN OPEN‐ECONOMY MODEL WITH MONEY,ENDOGENOUS SEARCH,AND HETEROGENEOUS FIRMS

This paper describes a new monetary open‐economy model where firms have market power due to search frictions in the goods market, and endogenous search effort by consumers mitigates this market power. The optimal inflation rate generally depends positively on the cost of search effort, the cost of firm entry, and the cost of trade. Higher inflation always improves a country's terms‐of‐trade against its trading partners. I also characterize a general class of matching processes which offer a novel approach to modeling firm sales. (JEL D43, E40, F12)     

Bayesian modeling of temporal properties of infectious disease in a college student population

A Bayesian statistical model is developed for analysis of the time-evolving properties of infectious disease, with a particular focus on viruses. The model employs a latent semi-Markovian state process, and the state-transition statistics are driven by three terms: (i) a general time-evolving trend of the overall population, (ii) a semi-periodic term that accounts for effects caused by the days of the week, and (iii) a regression term that relates the probability of infection to covariates (here, specifically, to the Google Flu Trends data). Computations are performed using Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling. Results are presented using a novel data set: daily self-reported symptom scores from hundreds of Duke University undergraduate students, collected over three academic years. The illnesses associated with these students are (imperfectly) labeled using real-time (RT) polymerase chain reaction (PCR) testing for several viruses, and gene-expression data were also analyzed. The statistical analysis is performed on the daily, self-reported symptom scores, and the RT PCR and gene-expression data are employed for analysis and interpretation of the model results.     

New HEAVY Models for Fat-Tailed Realized Covariances and Returns

ABSTRACT

We develop a new score-driven model for the joint dynamics of fat-tailed realized covariance matrix observations and daily returns. The score dynamics for the unobserved true covariance matrix are robust to outliers and incidental large observations in both types of data by assuming a matrix-F distribution for the realized covariance measures and a multivariate Student's t distribution for the daily returns. The filter for the unknown covariance matrix has a computationally efficient matrix formulation, which proves beneficial for estimation and simulation purposes. We formulate parameter restrictions for stationarity and positive definiteness. Our simulation study shows that the new model is able to deal with high-dimensional settings (50 or more) and captures unobserved volatility dynamics even if the model is misspecified. We provide an empirical application to daily equity returns and realized covariance matrices up to 30 dimensions. The model statistically and economically outperforms competing multivariate volatility models out-of-sample. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.     

Australian demography at the millennium

This paper looks backwards over the last ten years to see what topics might concern Australian demographers in the future. The possibility of convergence or ’sameness’ is considered, but not proven. The main areas considered are historical demography, mortality, fertility, marriage, fertility regulation, internal migration, international migration, human resources, ageing, forecasting, the family life cycle, policy, and gender.