Deterministic versus stochastic seasonal fractional integration and?structural breaks

This paper considers a general model which allows for both deterministic and stochastic forms of seasonality, including fractional (stationary and nonstationary) seasonal orders of integration, and also incorporating endogenously determined structural breaks. Monte Carlo analysis shows that, in the case of a single break, the suggested procedure performs well even in small samples, accurately capturing the seasonal properties of the series, and correctly detecting the break date. As an illustration, the model is estimated using four US series (output, consumption, imports and exports). The results suggest that the seasonal patterns of these variables have changed over time: specifically, in the second subsample the systematic component of seasonality becomes insignificant, whilst the degree of persistence increases.     

Marital Fertility and its Determinants in Rural and in Urban Spain, 1887–1930

Based primarily on census data between 1887 and 1920, the present article explores the basic structure of the social and economic factors that influenced marital fertility levels during the early part of the fertility transition in Spain. Multiple regression analysis is applied to ecological models based on separate rural and urban data. While some of the conclusions from the Princeton European Fertility Project have been corroborated, a number of the results have been quite noteworthy. Not the least of these are the sharply differing structures of causality in rural and urban areas, and the surprising and consistent role played by literacy as a stimulant of marital fertility. In the discussion of the results, we have insisted on the importance of interpreting different demographic, economic, and cultural indicators within concrete historical contexts.     

“Police,Public Safety,and Race‐Neutral Discourse”

In the final decades of the 20th century policing in America was refashioned in the public image of community policing. Race‐neutral discourses dominate public and professional support for community‐oriented policing philosophies. In the contemporary era of hyper‐incarceration a focus on ethnoracial divisions grounded in the sociology of peculiar institutions is essential for documenting transformations in how the municipal police services are legitimized. Here I analyze how the public discourses of law‐and‐order center on distortions of social fact and public safety. Today the criminalization of immigrants is the latest turn in public discourses shaping patterns of ethnoracial visions and divisions. The carceral breadth of the neoliberal penal state extends beyond social structure, repackaged as race‐neutral ideology across the public sphere.     

Mind the Gap,Please! The Effect of Temporary Help Agencies on the Consequences of Work Accidents

Using data from a Spanish register on work-related accidents, this paper analyses the effect of contract types on two consequences of accidents: the probability of suffering a serious/fatal accident and the number of working days lost after an accident has happened. The focus is on the difference among temporary workers hired through temporary help agencies, direct temporary workers and open-ended workers. We find that workers hired through temporary help agencies are less likely to suffer serious/fatal accidents and the durations of their absences are shorter when they do, compared with workers holding either open-ended contracts or direct temporary contracts once personal, job and accident characteristics are controlled for.     

Criminal history and assault of dating partners: the role of type of prior crime, age of onset, and gender

Some studies of assaults on intimate partners have found that most of the perpetrators are not violent outside the family, which suggests a specialized type of crime. However, other studies found domestic violence offenders tend to have extensive criminal histories. To further investigate the extent to which partner assaults are part of a more general pattern of criminal behavior or a specialized type of crime, we studied the dating relationships of 653 university students. Thirty-one percent reported assaulting a partner in the previous 12 months. The rate of assault on partners by females did not differ significantly for males (29%) and females (32%). We also found high rates of other self-reported crime, and much higher rates by males. For example, over one half of the male students and almost one third of the female students reported having stolen money. The male students reported an average of 3.4 crimes committed, and the female students an average of 1.4 crimes. These high crime rates and gender differences are consistent with many previous studies. Logistic regression analysis revealed that a history of prior criminal acts is associated with an increased probability of assaulting a partner. The relationship was greater when there was prior violent crime compared to property crime, when there was early onset of criminal behavior, and when the offender was female. The implications of the findings for understanding partner assaults, criminal careers, and gender differences in the etiology of violence against intimate partners are discussed.     

20 Questions of Gamblers Anonymous: A Psychometric Study with Population of Spain

The authors present a psychometric study of the questionnaire proposed by the Gamblers Anonymous organization for the self-assessment of problem gambling. The study was carried out in Spain with two samples: one of 127 problem gamblers (mean age: 41.67; sex: 78.7% men; mean duration of the problem: 5 years) and the other of 142 social gamblers (mean age: 38.46; sex: 60% men). The questionnaire was self-applied, in the presence of one of the investigators in case any doubts arose. The results indicate that it is a good screening instrument, with high reliability (Cronbach's alpha = 0.94), good covergent validity (the correlation with the SOGS questionnaire is high (r = 0.94; p < 0.001)), good factorial validity (the questionnaire's structure is unidimensional and coherent (just one factor explains more than 50% of the variance)), and its discriminative power is high (diagnostic efficacy = 98.88%). The study offers a comparative analysis of this instrument with other measures of problem gambling, emphasizing its extraordinary performance.     

A step-by-step algorithm for combining diagnostic tests

Combining data of several tests or markers for the classification of patients according to their health status for assigning better treatments is a major issue in the study of diseases such as cancer. In order to tackle this problem, several approaches have been proposed in the literature. In this paper, a step-by-step algorithm for estimating the parameters of a linear classifier that combines several measures is considered. The optimization criterion is to maximize the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. The algorithm is applied to different simulated data sets and its performance is evaluated. Finally, the method is illustrated with a prostate cancer staging database.     

Fractional integration and impulse responses: a bivariate application to real output in the USA and four Scandinavian countries

This article analyzes impulse response functions in the context of vector fractionally integrated time series. We derive analytically the restrictions required to identify the structural-form system. As an illustration of the recommended procedure, we carry out an empirical application based on a bivariate system including real output in the USA and, in turn, in one of the four Scandinavian countries (Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden). The empirical results appear to be sensitive, to some extent, to the specification of the stochastic process driving the disturbances, but generally a positive shock to US output has a positive effect on the Scandinavian countries, which tend to disappear in the long run.     

ESTIMATING MARKET POWER IN HOMOGENOUS PRODUCT MARKETS USING A COMPOSED ERROR MODEL: APPLICATION TO THE CALIFORNIA ELECTRICITY MARKET

This study proposes a novel econometric approach to estimating market power in homogenous product markets. We use a composed error model to estimate the stochastic part of firms' strategic pricing equation. This part is formed by two random variables: a traditional error term, which captures random shocks, and a random conduct term, which measures the degree of market power. This approach allows for the conduct parameter to vary flexibly across firms and within firms over time, and avoids ad hoc structural restrictions for identifying firms' conduct. The empirical application of our approach is based on a well‐known California wholesale electricity market data set, which has been rigorously used to study market power. Our results suggest that realization of market power varies over both time and firms, and reject the assumption of a common or time‐invariant conduct parameter. (JEL C34, C51, L13, L94)     

“The Cowl <Emphasis Type="Italic">Does</Emphasis> Make The Monk”: Understanding the Emergence of Social Entrepreneurship in Times of Downturn

In order to contribute to the debate about social entrepreneurship, we take an empirical perspective and describe the phenomenon in Catalonia, Spain, during the financial crises of the early twenty-first century. For this aim, we conducted 43 in-depth interviews with social entrepreneurs, launched a web-based survey with 90 responses, and built a database with 347 organizations and/or ventures settled in Catalonia with an explicit social/environmental goal. The data show that many social/environmental initiatives emerged during the economic crisis, either as a self-employment alternative to unemployment, or as a commercial venture started by nonprofit organizations as a reaction to the reduction in public expense in this sector. In addition, the crisis fueled the emergence of ventures oriented to non-market exchange and social currencies. As a whole, we argue that this new reality can be conceptualized as the emergence of an unsettled Strategic Action Field where banks, business schools and public administrations alike promote the label of “social entrepreneurship” through awards and startup services, whereas other groups claiming the same social/environmental goals contest this market-oriented definition of the field.