Analysis on China's Labor Supply and Demand Trend for a Long-term

The paper take Leslie method to forecast China's total population and its age distribution structure from 2015 to 2050,and then predict the total labor supply of the working-age population,estimate the total demand for labor according to the employment elasticity of the economic growth,calculated the gap between labor supply and demand.The results show that both the labor supply and demand showed a decreasing trend,but the supply reduced faster than demand,after 2015,the labor market appears shortage,the gap between supply and demand will exist for a long time and have a tendency to expand.Facing of the new situation and new problems of the labor market,we recommend some corresponding policy.     

国际商贸中心城市建设中娱乐产业发展研究

商业与演艺娱乐业等文化产业具有不可分割的密切关系。演艺娱乐业在国际商贸中心建设中具有战略意义。本文在分析国外演艺娱乐业的发展经验，北京演艺娱乐业的发展现状基础上，提出国际商贸中心建设背景下北京演艺娱乐业的发展对策。     

基于小岗精神的农村土地制度改革与乡村振兴研究

小岗精神是一种锲而不舍的民族精神,体现为穷则思变的图强精神、敢为人先的开拓精神、无畏无惧的担当精神、勇于探索的试错精神、坚持真理的执着精神,这种精神为农村改革注入了永不衰竭的原动力。小岗村实行农业“大包干”,拉开了农村土地制度改革的序幕,引领了新时代农村土地制度改革的方向,尤其是在“大包干”基础上构建的农村土地“三权”分置,为实施乡村振兴战略提供了解决土地问题的制度和政策保障。新时代农村土地制度改革的基本遵循是小岗精神,农村土地制度改革要在实践中不断探索前进,乡村振兴必须建基于农村土地制度改革。     

Equilibrium Joining Strategies and Optimal Control of a Make‐to‐Stock Queue

We consider a make‐to‐stock, finite‐capacity production system with setup cost and delay‐sensitive customers. To balance the setup and inventory related costs, the production manager adopts a two‐critical‐number control policy, where the production starts when the number of waiting customers reaches a certain level and shuts down when a certain quantity of inventory has accumulated. Once the production is set up, the unit production time follows an exponential distribution. Potential customers arrive according to a Poisson process. Customers are strategic, i.e., they make decisions on whether to stay for the product or to leave without purchase based on their utility values, which depend on the production manager's control decisions. We formulate the problem as a Stackelberg game between the production manager and the customers, where the former is the game leader. We first derive the equilibrium customer purchasing strategy and system performance. We then formulate the expected cost rate function for the production system and present a search algorithm for obtaining the optimal values of the two control variables. We further analyze the characteristics of the optimal solution numerically and compare them with the situation where the customers are non‐strategic.     

The Stability of Rankings Derived From Composite Indicators: Analysis of the “IL Sole 24 Ore” Quality of Life Report

The calculation of composite indicators and the derivation of respective rankings is a common method used to benchmark countries or regions. However, although the statistical robustness of these rankings is often criticised, they often still spark off heated political debate. Here, we assess the sensitivity of the province ranking published by the Italian economics newspaper “Il Sole 24 Ore”. For this purpose, various weighting, normalising and aggregation schemes were compared. Furthermore, to assess the accuracy of the underlying model, confidence intervals were calculated for the indicator values. The dynamic properties of the rankings were also analysed by evaluating the short- and long-term forecast properties of the rankings.     

当代湘西土家族苗族族际通婚与文化互动

通过调查三个湘西土家族、苗族杂居的集镇和村落族际通婚情况,从族群选择、地区选择和人口规模等方面对族际通婚的基本情况进行了分析,考察了政府政策和公众态度对族际通婚的影响.土家族苗族的族际通婚及其文化互动有助于保持和改善湘西和谐的族群关系.     

货币的中介本质与拜金主义的破产

拜金主义批判的关键是抓住货币的本质。货币的本质在现实生活中往往被资本的公式G—W—G和G-W-G’所掩盖,成为目的本身。从资本回归货币,再从货币回归商品。货币的本质在W—G—W的公式中获得显现,货币是物物交换的中介,物物交换的目的是为了满足人的需要。按照中介理论,中介虽然兼具矛盾双方的特点,具有优势,但是中介可以归为矛盾双方的因素,地位在矛盾双方之下。拜物教是用第二个层次的物与物的关系掩盖了第一个层次的人与人的关系;货币拜物教,即拜金主义,用第三个层次的金钱关系掩盖了物与物的关系,进而掩盖了人与人的关系。     

基于话语分析与公共治理视角的新媒体事件话语生产类型及叙事模式

以逻辑分析和框架描述的“类型-权力”分析视角为研究工具,即“类型学社会话语”分析法,分析新媒体事件的“类型箩筐”及其“话语场域”,将新媒体事件归纳为4类话语：国家（民族）话语、公共话语、民粹主义话语和文化话语,分别体现了官方意志-爱国主义、公民性力量、戏谑狂欢精神和文化建构逻辑,为日益频发的新媒体事件提供框架性的质性认知。分析认为,新媒体事件的话语生产方式代表了一种创新的媒介逻辑,这种新型逻辑推动着“媒体-公民-政府”三者的互动,重构着权力配置机制,一定程度上预示了公共治理路径的转型。     

鲁迅研究在中韩文化交流中的资源价值

韩国的鲁迅研究分为3个发展阶段,在沦陷期以介绍、评论为主,因将鲁迅视为反封建的斗士而引起共鸣,光复后主要吸收鲁迅反抗专制的精神内核用以争取民主的社会变革,20世纪90年代以来,则体现出将鲁迅的思想与艺术融合、作品分析与时代背景融合、学术研究与文化交流融合的趋势,而贯穿这3个阶段的是对鲁迅精神内涵的重视,此即为鲁迅研究在中韩文化交流乃至东亚文化交流中最重要的资源价值。     

三峡库区变动回水区架空直立式码头结构形式研究

从三峡库区变动回水区特殊的地形地质及水文条件出发,以寸滩港三期拟建工程为实例,通过对结构形式特点比较、施工方法论述及合理施工水位确定等要素的分析,对架空直立式码头结构进行排架跨度、基桩桩径优化设计,提出了适应于三峡库区变动回水区的大桩径、大跨度架空直立式码头结构形式,比传统的码头结构工程量减少、工程造价降低,并解决了三峡成库后低水位施工期短的难题。此研究成果可为库区码头建设提供良好的技术支持,具有一定的参考价值。