Confidence intervals for impulse responses under departures from normality

Monte Carlo evidence shows that in structural VAR models with fat-tailed or skewed innovations the coverage accuracy of impulse response confidence intervals may deterorate substantially compared to the same model with Gaussian innovations. Empirical evidance suggests that such departures from normality are quite plausible for economic time series. The simulation results suggest that applied researchers are best off using nonparametric bootstrap intervals for impulse responses, regardless of whether or not there is evidence of fat tails or skewness in the error distribution. Allowing for departures from normality is shown to considerably weaken the evidence of the delayed overshooting puzzle in Eichenbaum and Evans (1995).     

An Expert-Based Framework for Probabilistic National Population Projections: The Example of Austria

The traditional way of dealing with uncertainty in population projections through high and low variants is unsatisfactory because it remains unclear what range of uncertainty these alternative paths are assumed to cover. But probabilistic approaches have not yet found their way into official population projections. This paper proposes an expert-based probabilistic approach that seems to meet important criteria for successful application to national and international projections: 1) it provides significant advantages to current practice, 2) it presents an evolution of current practice rather than a discontinuity, 3) it is scientifically sound, and 4) it is applicable to all countries.In a recent Nature article (Lutz et al., 1997) this method was applied to 13 world regions. This paper discusses the applicability to national projections by directly taking the alternative assumptions defined by the Austrian Statistical Office. Sensitivity analyses that resolve some methodological questions about the approach are also presented.     

Comparing relative effects of education and economic resources on infant mortality in developing countries

Research on the social determinants of health has often considered education and economic resources as separate indicators of socioeconomic status. From a policy perspective, however, it is important to understand the relative strength of the effect of these social factors on health outcomes, particularly in developing countries. It is also important to examine not only the impact of education and economic resources of individuals, but also whether community and country levels of these factors affect health outcomes. This analysis uses multilevel regression models to assess the relative effects of education and economic resources on infant mortality at the family, community, and country level using data from demographic and Health Surveys in 43 low-and lower-middle-income countries. We find strong effects for both per capita gross national income and completed secondary education at the country level, but a greater impact of education within families and communities.     

Factors Associated with the Finnish Fertility Decline Since 1776

The analysis of annual age-specific fertility rates in Finland over more than 200 years reveals the existence of a significant early fertility decline at the end of the eighteenth century preceding the secular decline that started around 1910. A reconstruction of age-specific proportions married by a simulation model based on Coale's marriage model indicates that the mean age at marriage increased and the proportion ever-marrying decreased substantially during the period of the early fertility decline. A modification of the index of family limitation applied under certain assumptions to overall fertility rates also indicates that fertility was essentially natural until 1910. Cross-lagged correlation analysis shows that infant mortality does not influence subsequent fertility in the pre-modern period. Finally, a number of socio-economic indicators are related to fertility, and conclusions are drawn from the Finnish case about several hypotheses in the field of demographic transition.     

The Demand for Labor: An Analysis Using Matched Employer–Employee Data from the German LIAB. Will the High Unskilled Worker Own-Wage Elasticity Please Stand Up?

This paper uses matched employee–employer LIAB data to provide panel estimates of the structure of labor demand in western Germany, 1993–2002, distinguishing between highly skilled, skilled, and unskilled labor and between the manufacturing and service sectors. Reflecting current preoccupations, our demand analysis seeks also to accommodate the impact of technology and trade in addition to wages. The bottom-line interests are to provide elasticities of the demand for unskilled (and other) labor that should assist in short-run policy design and to identify the extent of skill biases or otherwise in trade and technology.

What difference do alternative immigration and integration levels make to Western Europe?

The population of Western Europe (EC plus EFTA) is seen as consisting of three sub-populations: the natives, the East-European immigrants, and the non-European immigrants. Different immigration levels assumed add to the non-native populations while different levels of integration describe the transition intensities from a non-native to a native category. Alternative multi-state population projections to 2050 based on six scenarios show that (1) in the case of no further immigration the total population of Western Europe will start to decline after 2010; (2) the rate of integration influences the future size of the non-European population much more than alternative levels of immigration; (3) in the long run the Eastern Europeans will be quantitatively insignificant; (4) the Western European population is bound to significant population aging no matter what happens with immigration; and (5) in the short to medium run immigrants contribute to the alleviation of the pension burden.La population d'Europe occidentale (CE et AELE) est décomposée en trois sous-populations: les natifs, les immigrants originaires d'Europe de l'Est, et les immigrants originaires du reste du monde. Les populations non-natives augmentent sous l'effet de divers niveaux d'immigration tandis que les intensités de passage d'une catégorie non-native à native sont décrites par différents niveaux d' intégration. Des projections de population jusqu'en 2050 dans ces divers états, basées sur six scénarios, montrent que: (1) la population totale de l'Europe occidentale commencerait à baisser après 2010, dans le cas d'un arrêt de l'immigration; (2) le taux d' intégration influencerait la taille future de la population non-européenne beaucoup plus fortement que le niveau d'immigration; (3) dans le long terme, les Européens de l'Est serait en nombre très réduit; (4) la population d'Europe occidentale connaîtra un vieillissement important de sa population, quelque soit ses flux d'immigrants; et (5) dans le court et le moyen terme les immigrants contribueraient à alléger le poids des retraites.     

Endogenous Growth of Population and Income Depending on Resource and Knowledge

We consider a three sector demoeconomic model and its interdependence with the accumulation of human capital and resources. The primary sector harvests a renewable resource which constitutes the input into industrial production, the secondary sector of our economy. Both sectors are always affected by the stock of knowledge. The tertiary sector is responsible for the accumulation of this stock that represents a public good for all three sectors. Labour is divided up between the three sectors under the assumption of competitive labour markets. The economy exhibits two externalities—free access to renewable resource harvesting and the existence of a public stock of knowledge—that are not properly reflected in competitive markets. We internalize these externalities by taxing the output of the primary sector and use these taxes together with taxes on labour income to finance the inputs of the tertiary sector. The central focus of this study is whether and what kind of interactions between the economy, the population and the environment foster sustainability and if possible, continuous growth. The views expressed in this paper are the first author’s own views and do not necessarily represent those of the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research.     

A Population Policy Rationale for the Twenty‐First Century

I propose that the primary goal of twenty‐first‐century population policies should be to strengthen the human resource base for national and global sustainable development. I discuss the shortcomings of the three dominant twentieth‐century population policy rationales: acceptance of replacement‐level fertility as a demographic goal; realizing a “demographic dividend” from the changing age structure; and filling the “unmet need” for family planning. I demonstrate that in all three cases the explicit incorporation of education into the model changes the picture and makes female education a key population policy priority. Population policies under this new rationale could be viewed as public human resource management. I argue that 20 years after the Cairo ICPD the international community needs a new rationale for population policies in the context of sustainable development and that a focus on human capital development, in particular education and health, is the most promising approach.