Race differences in the effects of multiple roles on health: longitudinal evidence from a national sample of older men.

This paper examines race differences in the effects of social roles on physical health. Using data from the older men cohort of the National Longitudinal Surveys of Labor Market Experience, we examine the impact of employment, marriage, and being a supporter on health limitations and mortality. Employment has the most consistent health-protective effect, and the benefits of employment are more pronounced for Blacks than for Whites. Marriage affects health in conjunction with employment. These findings lend further support to the growing literature on the effects of roles on health. The results further illustrate the importance of ascribed statuses as structural determinants of the relationship between roles and health, highlighting the very real differences in the meanings and expectations of social roles for Blacks and Whites.     

The emergence of Sub-Replacement Family Size Ideals in Europe

Period fertility started to drop significantly below replacement in most Western European countries during the 1970s and 1980s, while most fertility surveys, value studies and opinion polls have found that the number of children considered ideal for society or for one's own family has remained above two children per woman. These surveys have led to the expectation that, sooner or later, period fertility would recover in Europe. The most recent data from the Eurobarometer 2001 survey, however, suggest that in the German-speaking parts of Europe the average ideal family sizes given by younger men and women have fallen as low as 1.7 children. This paper examines the consistency and the credibility of these new findings, which – if they are indeed indications of a new trend – may alter the current discussion about future fertility trends in Europe.     

Book Review: Calvinism Incorporated: Welsh Immigrants on Ohio's Industrial Frontier. By Knowles,Anne Kelly. Chicago: University of Chicago Press (University of Chicago Geography Research Paper,No. 240), 1997. Paper,ISBN: 0-226-44853-3

Qualitative Sociology -     

Roles,race and subjective well-being: A longitudinal analysis of elderly men

The basic contention of this paper is that research on subjective well-being would benefit from an integration of theory and research from other studies of subjective states, such as mental and physical health. Toward that end, we present results of an analysis of the impact of race and social roles on subjective well-being in a nationally representative sample of elderly men. The findings demonstrate that particular role configurations have an effect on happiness and that these effects are different for blacks and whites. Theoretical implications of these findings for subjective well-being research and role accumulation theory are discussed.     

Demographic scenarios by age,sex and education corresponding to the SSP narratives

In this paper, we translate the five narratives as defined by the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) research community into five alternative demographic scenarios using projections by age, sex and level of education for 171 countries up to 2100. The scenarios represent a significant step beyond past population scenarios used in the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change context, which considered only population size. The definitions of the medium assumptions about future fertility, mortality, migration and education trends are taken from a major new projections effort by the Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital, while the assumptions for all the other scenarios were defined in interactions with other groups in the SSP community. Since a full data base with all country-specific results is available online, this paper can only highlight selected results.     

A Population Policy Rationale for the Twenty‐First Century

I propose that the primary goal of twenty‐first‐century population policies should be to strengthen the human resource base for national and global sustainable development. I discuss the shortcomings of the three dominant twentieth‐century population policy rationales: acceptance of replacement‐level fertility as a demographic goal; realizing a “demographic dividend” from the changing age structure; and filling the “unmet need” for family planning. I demonstrate that in all three cases the explicit incorporation of education into the model changes the picture and makes female education a key population policy priority. Population policies under this new rationale could be viewed as public human resource management. I argue that 20 years after the Cairo ICPD the international community needs a new rationale for population policies in the context of sustainable development and that a focus on human capital development, in particular education and health, is the most promising approach.     

A COMPARISON OF THE EFFECTS OF EXOGENOUS OIL SUPPLY SHOCKS ON OUTPUT AND INFLATION IN THE G7 COUNTRIES

A comparison of the effects of exogenous shocks to global crude oil production on seven major industrialized economies suggests a fair degree of similarity in the real growth responses. An exogenous oil supply disruption typically causes a temporary reduction in real GDP growth that is concentrated in the second year after the shock. Inflation responses are more varied. The median CPI inflation response peaks after three to four quarters. Exogenous oil supply disruptions need not generate sustained inflation or stagflation. Typical responses include a fall in the real wage, higher short‐term interest rates, and a depreciating currency with respect to the dollar. Despite many qualitative similarities, there is strong statistical evidence that the responses to exogenous oil supply disruptions differ across G7 countries. For suitable subsets of countries, homogeneity cannot be ruled out. A counterfactual historical exercise suggests that the evolution of CPI inflation in the G7 countries would have been similar overall to the actual path even in the absence of exogenous shocks to oil production, consistent with a monetary explanation of the inflation of the 1970s. There is no evidence that the 1973–1974 and 2002–2003 oil supply shocks had a substantial impact on real growth in any G7 country, whereas the 1978–1979, 1980, and 1990–1991 shocks contributed to lower growth in at least some G7 countries. (JEL: E31, E32, Q43)