行政参与中的激励机制探析——以城市治理中参加人的利益平衡为视角

作为现代开放式行政的重要手段之一,行政参与不仅已经广泛应用于各级政府的工作实践,而且也在我国的立法中得到了逐步确认。然而当前在不同的行政领域中还存在着"参与充分"和"参与不足"并存的现象。仅就后者而言,其产生的原因主要是环境、卫生、社区治理等行政领域与参加人的直接利害关系相对较弱,参加人在付出了参与成本之后难以得到直接回报。为改变这一现状,有必要通过行政法律规范为参加人设计合理的激励机制,提高参加人的选择性收益,从而吸引其积极、健康地参与其中。     

基于DFA和SVR的GDP预测模型研究

首先对1980—2013年全国年度GDP数据进行消除趋势分析（DFA），发现GDP时序具有长记忆性，表明当前GDP值用来预测未来一段时间内的GDP值具有可行性，在此基础上利用具有非线性和强泛化能力特点的支持向量回归机（SVR），建立SVR预测模型,得到了较好的预测效果.     

巴渝古崖居的空间分布与景观特征

巴渝古崖居的分布与地理、地质、交通等诸多因素有关，以成渝交通要道、长江干流和支流为线，串起沿途各个点，由线成面，呈现出渝西、渝东北两头集中、整体北多南少的分布特征。巴渝古崖居大多开凿于明清晚期，这一时期巴渝许多地区战乱频繁、匪患猖獗。古崖居的集中分布与这些地区相吻合，从侧面印证了巴渝古崖居的空间分布特征。巴渝古崖居的广泛开凿体现了古人高超的建筑艺术以及社会历史文化的变迁。     

Integrating Operational and Organizational Aspects in Interdependent Infrastructure Network Recovery

Managing risk in infrastructure systems implies dealing with interdependent physical networks and their relationships with the natural and societal contexts. Computational tools are often used to support operational decisions aimed at improving resilience, whereas economics‐related tools tend to be used to address broader societal and policy issues in infrastructure management. We propose an optimization‐based framework for infrastructure resilience analysis that incorporates organizational and socioeconomic aspects into operational problems, allowing to understand relationships between decisions at the policy level (e.g., regulation) and the technical level (e.g., optimal infrastructure restoration). We focus on three issues that arise when integrating such levels. First, optimal restoration strategies driven by financial and operational factors evolve differently compared to those driven by socioeconomic and humanitarian factors. Second, regulatory aspects have a significant impact on recovery dynamics (e.g., effective recovery is most challenging in societies with weak institutions and regulation, where individual interests may compromise societal well‐being). And third, the decision space (i.e., available actions) in postdisaster phases is strongly determined by predisaster decisions (e.g., resource allocation). The proposed optimization framework addresses these issues by using: (1) parametric analyses to test the influence of operational and socioeconomic factors on optimization outcomes, (2) regulatory constraints to model and assess the cost and benefit (for a variety of actors) of enforcing specific policy‐related conditions for the recovery process, and (3) sensitivity analyses to capture the effect of predisaster decisions on recovery. We illustrate our methodology with an example regarding the recovery of interdependent water, power, and gas networks in Shelby County, TN (USA), with exposure to natural hazards.     

Cross‐Sectional Psychological and Demographic Associations of Zika Knowledge and Conspiracy Beliefs Before and After Local Zika Transmission

Perceptions of infectious diseases are important predictors of whether people engage in disease‐specific preventive behaviors. Having accurate beliefs about a given infectious disease has been found to be a necessary condition for engaging in appropriate preventive behaviors during an infectious disease outbreak, while endorsing conspiracy beliefs can inhibit preventive behaviors. Despite their seemingly opposing natures, knowledge and conspiracy beliefs may share some of the same psychological motivations, including a relationship with perceived risk and self‐efficacy (i.e., control). The 2015–2016 Zika epidemic provided an opportunity to explore this. The current research provides some exploratory tests of this topic derived from two studies with similar measures, but different primary outcomes: one study that included knowledge of Zika as a key outcome and one that included conspiracy beliefs about Zika as a key outcome. Both studies involved cross‐sectional data collections that occurred during the same two periods of the Zika outbreak: one data collection prior to the first cases of local Zika transmission in the United States (March–May 2016) and one just after the first cases of local transmission (July–August). Using ordinal logistic and linear regression analyses of data from two time points in both studies, the authors show an increase in relationship strength between greater perceived risk and self‐efficacy with both increased knowledge and increased conspiracy beliefs after local Zika transmission in the United States. Although these results highlight that similar psychological motivations may lead to Zika knowledge and conspiracy beliefs, there was a divergence in demographic association.     

Towards Uniformly Efficient Trend Estimation Under Weak/Strong Correlation and Non‐stationary Volatility

In this paper, we consider the deterministic trend model where the error process is allowed to be weakly or strongly correlated and subject to non‐stationary volatility. Extant estimators of the trend coefficient are analysed. We find that under heteroskedasticity, the Cochrane–Orcutt‐type estimator (with some initial condition) could be less efficient than Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) when the process is highly persistent, whereas it is asymptotically equivalent to OLS when the process is less persistent. An efficient non‐parametrically weighted Cochrane–Orcutt‐type estimator is then proposed. The efficiency is uniform over weak or strong serial correlation and non‐stationary volatility of unknown form. The feasible estimator relies on non‐parametric estimation of the volatility function, and the asymptotic theory is provided. We use the data‐dependent smoothing bandwidth that can automatically adjust for the strength of non‐stationarity in volatilities. The implementation does not require pretesting persistence of the process or specification of non‐stationary volatility. Finite‐sample evaluation via simulations and an empirical application demonstrates the good performance of proposed estimators.     

支书和他的村庄——基于生命历程理论视角

在详细梳理西村张书记生命历程的基础上,利用生命历程理论的分析范式,将张书记的个人生命历程置于广阔的社会背景下进行研究,探讨了宏观社会背景、社会力量对张书记个人生命历程发展的影响,同时也阐述和强调了张书记个人主观能动性的发挥对自己生命轨迹和整个村庄经济收入、产业结构调整、农业技术推广、村民日常生活等带来的深刻变化。     

Feminized Forestry: The Promises and Pitfalls of Change in a Masculine Organization

The gendering of forestry as a distinctly masculine profession has led to a wide range of negative outcomes, including legal actions concerning discrimination, poor public perceptions and poor environmental records. Forestry organizations have addressed these concerns by attempting to increase the number of women in the profession. These efforts have been largely ineffective. Using the case of community‐based forestry, I argue that when we begin to consider not only women but also normatively feminine values as agents of change, our understanding of the profession of forestry may be rejuvenated.     

区块链技术应用于政府采购信用体系建设中的价值与路径

随着政府采购的深入发展，政府采购信用体系逐渐出现政府采购信誉减损、信用信息开放和共享程度较低、信用信息的安全威胁增加、信用监管效果不佳以及失信惩戒政策执行遭遇阻塞等问题。区块链技术应用于政府采购信用体系建设中有利于提供安全的信息环境、有利于多主体参与、有助于多中心协同、能促进信用监管多元化。区块链技术在政府采购信用体系建设中的应用路径:以区块链思维重新架构政府采购信用体系的信用管理基础；以“去中心化”的信任机制完善信用信息公开与共享平台；以分布式账本结构打造多主体监管参与机制；以智能合约机制实现信用评估智能化。