西部开发、劳动力流动与少数民族教育

为了推动西部大发展 ,我国政府开始实施西部大开发战略 ,各种体制改革不断深化 ,地区劳动力流动更为频繁。处在这一背景下的西部各民族特别是少数民族面临着严峻的就业挑战。本文分析了西部劳动力的结构、就业特点 ,希望能通过具体的教育措施提高少数民族劳动力的竞争能力 ,为保持西部地区繁荣、稳定做出贡献。     

基于共振解调模拟电路的滚动轴承早期故障检测性能研究

共振解调模拟电路是滚动轴承故障诊断中最常用的技术之一,但是其故障检测性能的定量评价研究尚未见报导。因此,分别以正弦调制和脉冲调制所构造的故障轴承振动加速度信号为电路输入,定量分析了共振解调电路在不同信噪比条件下的故障检测性能,并研究了电路中的关键设计参数——[WTBX]带通滤波器品质因数Q[WT]的调制规律,为共振解调模拟电路在轴承早期故障检测的实际工程应用提供了可靠的科学依据。     

Collective versus Individual Effects in Survival Analysis of Multiple Failures

In survival analysis, we sometimes encounter data with multiple censored outcomes. Under certain scenarios, partial or even all covariates have ‘similar’ relative risks on the multiple outcomes in the Cox regression analysis. The similarity in covariate effects can be quantified using the proportionality of regression coefficients. Identifying the proportionality structure, or equivalently whether covariates have individual or collective effects, may have important scientific implications. In addition, it can lead to a smaller set of unknown parameters, which in turn results in more accurate estimation. In this article, we develop a novel approach for identifying the proportionality structure. Simulation shows the satisfactory performance of the proposed approach and its advantage over estimation under no assumed structure. We analyse three datasets to demonstrate the practical application of the proposed approach.     

On the robustness of the generalized fused lasso to prior specifications

Using networks as prior knowledge to guide model selection is a way to reach structured sparsity. In particular, the fused lasso that was originally designed to penalize differences of coefficients corresponding to successive features has been generalized to handle features whose effects are structured according to a given network. As any prior information, the network provided in the penalty may contain misleading edges that connect coefficients whose difference is not zero, and the extent to which the performance of the method depend on the suitability of the graph has never been clearly assessed. In this work we investigate the theoretical and empirical properties of the adaptive generalized fused lasso in the context of generalized linear models. In the fixed \(p\) setting, we show that, asymptotically, adding misleading edges in the graph does not prevent the adaptive generalized fused lasso from enjoying asymptotic oracle properties, while forgetting suitable edges can be more problematic. These theoretical results are complemented by an extensive simulation study that assesses the robustness of the adaptive generalized fused lasso against misspecification of the network as well as its applicability when theoretical coefficients are not exactly equal. Our contribution is also to evaluate the applicability of the generalized fused lasso for the joint modeling of multiple sparse regression functions. Illustrations are provided on two real data examples.     

城乡医保一体化制度对农村居民就医行为的影响

本文利用Charls 2008-2012年两期数据,采用双重差分DID方法对城乡医保一体化制度的政策效果进行实证分析.研究表明:城乡医保一体化制度显著提高了农村居民过去一个月门诊次数和医疗费用;但在住院方面,目前尚无证据显示医保一体化政策对过去一年是否住院和最近一次住院费用有显著的影响.在考虑了样本损耗问题、户籍转换、政策非随机等问题后,本文结论依然稳健.     

The West,Russia, and China in Central Asia: What Kind of Game Is Being Played in the Region?

The article discusses the nature of the tangled interaction between the ex-Soviet Central Asian republics and the outside great powers – Russia, the United States and China. Although the so-called Great Game model is often used to explain the geopolitical rivalry in the region, the current pattern of relations between various international actors is much more complex than a traditional tug-of-war between the old colonial empires. While Russia's strategic role in Central Asia appears to be on the rise, the capacity of the West to influence political developments in the region has diminished. However, the overall situation in Central Asia remains volatile and its geopolitical landscape is far from being settled.     

论图表在大学英语阅读教学中的作用

对中国大学生来说,尽管CET-4/6将全面启用新题型,阅读能力仍然是要培养的重要语言能力之一;而对大学英语教师来说,要改善阅读课堂的教学效果,须将普遍的学生选答案、教师对答案的聋哑阅读课堂转变为集知识性、交际性和趣味性于一体的师生互动课堂,将阅读能力的单一训练转变为听、说、读、写训练齐头并进,而在达成这一目标的过程中,利用图表进行交际性教学是非常重要的。文章探讨了大学英语阅读教学中运用图表进行交际性教学,以提高教学效果这一问题。     

Modeling Demand For Unionization With Nontraditional Data Analysis Methods

Upon reviewing the extant literature on determinants of unionism, it becomes clear that many areas that have had a plethora of research attention do not converge upon singularly directional findings. This study explores a potential cause of such an apparent anomaly: nonlinearity of data. An exploratory examination of correlation coefficients among typical union determinant variables seems to show different patterns of relationships at different levels of union demand. Thus, a break from traditional linear data analysis techniques is explored in the interest of explaining more variance with typical, theoretically derived variables by using neural network analysis. Results of analyses on industry level data reveal that using neural network analysis to model union demand explained over four times as much variance as multiple regression analysis.     

Disagreement over the immigration of low-income earners in a welfare state

This paper studies natives’ economically motivated preferences over different levels of immigration of low-income earners. Immigration affects natives through both intra- and intergenerational redistribution programmes and in the labour market. Our analysis suggests, in a welfare state that looks after the poor and the aged, economic motivation does not necessarily lead a native to have an extreme opinion on the preferable level of immigration, although it causes disagreement among natives. We find, regardless of parameter values, high-income earners prefer at least as much immigration as low-income earners who, in turn, prefer at least as much immigration as pensioners. The median voter is then likely to be a low-income native.

百年中国共产党独特性的解释进路、表现向度与生成逻辑

和其他政党相比较,中国共产党具有不同于一般政党的独特样态,它们集中诠释着党的独特优势和优良品质。党的独特性蕴含在党的历史使命与行动价值之中,同时也通过具体的政党行为映现出来。党的独特性主要表现为具有彻底的自我革命性、博大的人类情怀、超越自我的牺牲精神、高度的政党纯洁性以及非凡的红色政党气质等。党的独特性的生成具有复杂性,是内在与外在因素、历史和时代环境以及国内和国际条件等共同作用的集合体。党的独特性源于无产阶级政党的特殊基因,是对党的百年政治实践的能动反映,是党持续拓展政党功能的集中显现,更是党有效应对百年复杂世界体系的结果。