Collective versus Individual Effects in Survival Analysis of Multiple Failures

In survival analysis, we sometimes encounter data with multiple censored outcomes. Under certain scenarios, partial or even all covariates have ‘similar’ relative risks on the multiple outcomes in the Cox regression analysis. The similarity in covariate effects can be quantified using the proportionality of regression coefficients. Identifying the proportionality structure, or equivalently whether covariates have individual or collective effects, may have important scientific implications. In addition, it can lead to a smaller set of unknown parameters, which in turn results in more accurate estimation. In this article, we develop a novel approach for identifying the proportionality structure. Simulation shows the satisfactory performance of the proposed approach and its advantage over estimation under no assumed structure. We analyse three datasets to demonstrate the practical application of the proposed approach.     

An Automatic Test for the Umbrella Alternatives

The paper proposes a new test for detecting the umbrella pattern under a general non‐parametric scheme. The alternative asserts that the umbrella ordering holds while the hypothesis is its complement. The main focus is put on controlling the power function of the test outside the alternative. As a result, the asymptotic error of the first kind of the constructed solution is smaller than or equal to the fixed significance level α on the whole set where the umbrella ordering does not hold. Also, under finite sample sizes, this error is controlled to a satisfactory extent. A simulation study shows, among other things, that the new test improves upon the solution widely recommended in the literature of the subject. A routine, written in R, is attached as the Supporting Information file.     

城乡医保一体化制度对农村居民就医行为的影响

本文利用Charls 2008-2012年两期数据,采用双重差分DID方法对城乡医保一体化制度的政策效果进行实证分析.研究表明:城乡医保一体化制度显著提高了农村居民过去一个月门诊次数和医疗费用;但在住院方面,目前尚无证据显示医保一体化政策对过去一年是否住院和最近一次住院费用有显著的影响.在考虑了样本损耗问题、户籍转换、政策非随机等问题后,本文结论依然稳健.     

税制改革视野中的税务部门人才发展:现状、问题与政策建议

税务人才发展作为税制改革的实施机制,当前存在的问题主要包括,人才整体素质有待提高,培训开发不到位,激励与约束机制软化。新一轮税制改革对税务人才发展提出更高的要求,其改革思路主要包括:完善人才引入与流动机制,培训开发的个性化,激励约束的人本化,税务人才发展文化氛围的优化。     

基于生态足迹理论的生态人口过剩

本文应用生态足迹理论研究经济快速增长下的生态过剩人口,从横截面和时间序列分析生态过剩人口情况,反映了我国生态人口过剩的普遍性,说明经济的快速增长付出了巨大的生态代价。     

蔡廷锴在抗日战争时期的政治转变

从历史人物主体性活动因素考察,抗日战争时期,受军事政治“边缘化”地位影响,蔡廷锴在政治思想上完成了由朴素的爱国主义到资产阶级民主主义的转变,在政治立场上完成了由拥护国民党统治的爱国将领到反对国民党统治的爱国民主人士的转变。尽管这种转变中思想认识的阶级局限成份亦很浓厚,但在当时的历史条件下仍然是一种了不起的进步,为后来蔡廷锴走上拥护中国共产党的领导和追求新民主义革命道路奠定了坚实的基础。     

试论藏族的“一妻多夫”婚姻

藏族地区的“一妻多夫”婚姻 ,长期以来一直是国内外学术界关注的研究专题 ,但是国内学者在这一领域所开展的深入、系统的实地调查尚不多见 ,一些研究也仍然停留在现象描述的层次。本文分别介绍了国内外学者在“一妻多夫”婚姻方面的研究成果 ,特别介绍了美国学者戈德斯坦结合藏族土地继承制度和劳役制度来分析婚姻形式的研究 ;同时 ,联系藏族的婚姻禁忌、妇女社会地位等方面分析了藏族“一妻多夫”婚姻的产生原因与影响因素     

就地城镇化发展与农民就业转型出路研究——以天津宝坻水苑小区为例

作为新型城镇化的发展模式之一,就地城镇化是促进乡村振兴、推动城乡一体化发展的重要途径。为了更好地了解就地城镇化的实践效果以及农民的就业转型出路,以宝坻周良水苑小区作为研究对象,从就业、收入和生活等多角度深入分析就地城镇化发展中农民就业转型的路径、去向、行业分布、单位类型、收入现状以及影响因素等,以期为探索新型城镇化发展与乡村振兴进程中的相关问题提供经验借鉴。     

Development of urban behaviour is associated with time since urbanization in a reed-nesting waterbird

Behavioural adaptations are recognized as crucial determinants for successful establishment and persistence of animal populations in a novel urban environment. Here, we examined mechanisms responsible for the development of urban behavioural type in a common waterbird, the Eurasian coot Fulica atra. We compared the behaviour of coots from a rural population and two urban populations that differed in the timing of colonization event (1960s vs. 2000s). We found that some behavioural characters associated with urban life (aggression during nest defence and boldness towards humans during foraging) were more strongly expressed in the older urban population when compared with the recently established urban population. By contrast, coots from the two urban populations showed a similar likelihood of exploiting human-derived food resources, as well as they showed similar levels of physiological stress. Urban coots were generally more aggressive, bolder, and less stressed than their rural conspecifics. Large behavioural and physiological divergence of coots from the recently established urban population and their rural conspecifics suggested that phenotypic plasticity and phenotype sorting may play a key role in the initial stages of urban colonization. On the other hand, increasing expression of boldness and aggression with the time since urbanization may suggest the role of microevolutionary adaptation in response to novel selective forces associated with the urban environment. Our results indicate that a combination of different processes (phenotypic plasticity, phenotype sorting, and microevolution) can determine successful colonization of urban areas by the Eurasian coots, and possibly other bird species.     

DEMOCRACY AND GROWTH: A PERSPECTIVE FROM DEMOCRATIC EXPERIENCE

This article investigates the impact of democracy on growth by simultaneously considering a country's secular‐historical experience of democracy and current political regime. The results obtained show that the effect of democracy on growth exhibits an asymmetrical pattern depending on the country's democracy stock. Only in “democratic countries” with “prolonged experiences of democratic rule” can democracy promote growth. This claim stands in contrast to the earlier literature in which there is either no consistent relationship between growth and democracy or perhaps a nonlinear relationship. This conclusion provides circumstantial support for the claim of the “democracy promotes growth” hypothesis. (JEL O43)