Returns on education amongst men in England and Wales: The impact of residential segregation and ethno-religious background

Individuals’ occupational and educational attainment is influenced by their ethnicity, religion and colour in the UK and elsewhere. In this paper, we analyse the impact of ethnicity, religion and colour along with residential segregation¹ and socio-economic deprivation on returns to education for men in England and Wales. We analyse the 2001 UK census data by employing multi-level logistic regression models. It is found that non-White groups including Christian Black-African, UK born Sikh-Indians and South Asian Muslims are found to suffer an ethnic penalty compared to Christian White-British. While there is evidence to suggest that Muslim men may experience a greater penalty compared to some non-Whites other non-Muslim groups too face ethno-religious penalties, sometimes even more severely such as in the case of Christian Black-Africans. Socio-economic difficulties faced by ethnic minorities are also linked to spatial segregation only when associated with high levels of area deprivation. This suggests that what matters may not be segregation per se, but whether or not it is associated with deprivation.     

Claim Dependence Induced by Common Effects in Hierarchical Credibility Models

In the usual credibility model, observations are made of a risk or group of risks selected from a population, and claims are assumed to be independent among different risks. However, there are some problems in practical applications and this assumption may be violated in some situations. Some credibility models allow for one source of claim dependence only, that is, across time for an individual insured risk or a group of homogeneous insured risks. Some other credibility models have been developed on a two-level common effects model that allows for two possible sources of dependence, namely, across time for the same individual risk and between risks. In this paper, we argue for the notion of modeling claim dependence on a three-level common effects model that allows for three possible sources of dependence, namely, across portfolios, across individuals and simultaneously across time within individuals. We also obtain the corresponding credibility premiums hierarchically using the projection method. Then we derive the general hierarchical structure or multi-level credibility premiums for the models with h-level of common effects.     

Prior elicitation, variable selection and Bayesian computation for logistic regression models

Bayesian selection of variables is often difficult to carry out because of the challenge in specifying prior distributions for the regression parameters for all possible models, specifying a prior distribution on the model space and computations. We address these three issues for the logistic regression model. For the first, we propose an informative prior distribution for variable selection. Several theoretical and computational properties of the prior are derived and illustrated with several examples. For the second, we propose a method for specifying an informative prior on the model space, and for the third we propose novel methods for computing the marginal distribution of the data. The new computational algorithms only require Gibbs samples from the full model to facilitate the computation of the prior and posterior model probabilities for all possible models. Several properties of the algorithms are also derived. The prior specification for the first challenge focuses on the observables in that the elicitation is based on a prior prediction y ₀ for the response vector and a quantity a ₀ quantifying the uncertainty in y ₀. Then, y ₀ and a ₀ are used to specify a prior for the regression coefficients semi-automatically. Examples using real data are given to demonstrate the methodology.     

Mixed probability models for dry and wet spells

When identifying the best model for representing the behavior of rainfall distribution based on a sequence of dry (wet) days, focus is usually given on the fitted model with the least number of estimated parameters. If the model with lesser number of parameters is found not adequate for describing a particular data distribution, the model with a higher number of parameters is recommended. Based on several probability models developed by previous researchers in this field, we propose five types of mixed probability models as the alternative to describe the distribution of dry (wet) spells for daily rainfall events. The mixed probability models comprise of the combination of log series distribution with three other types of models, which are Poisson distribution (MLPD), truncated Poisson distribution (MLTPD), and geometric distribution (MLGD). In addition, the combination of the two log series distributions (MLSD) and the mixed geometric with the truncated Poisson distribution (MGTPD) are also introduced as the alternative models. Daily rainfall data from 14 selected rainfall stations in Peninsular Malaysia for the periods of 1975 to 2004 were used in this present study. When selecting the best probability model to describe the observed distribution of dry (wet) spells, the Akaike’s Information Criterion (AIC) was considered. The results revealed that MLGD was the best probability model to represent the distribution of dry spells over the Peninsular.     

Regression model for surrogate data in high dimensional statistics

Abstract

This paper deals with the problem of estimating the regression of a surrogated scalar response variable given a functional random one. We construct an estimator of the regression operator by using, in addition to the available (true) response data, a surrogate data. We then establish some asymptotic properties of the constructed estimator in terms of the almost-complete and the quadratic mean convergences. Notice that the obtained results generalize a part of the results obtained in the finite dimensional framework. Finally, an illustration on the applicability of our results on both simulated data and a real dataset was realized. We have thus shown the superiority of our estimator on classical estimators when we are lacking complete data.     

Bayesian inference for random coefficient dynamic panel data models

We develop a hierarchical Bayesian approach for inference in random coefficient dynamic panel data models. Our approach allows for the initial values of each unit's process to be correlated with the unit-specific coefficients. We impose a stationarity assumption for each unit's process by assuming that the unit-specific autoregressive coefficient is drawn from a logitnormal distribution. Our method is shown to have favorable properties compared to the mean group estimator in a Monte Carlo study. We apply our approach to analyze energy and protein intakes among individuals from the Philippines.     

Is Materialism All That Bad? Effects on Satisfaction with Material Life, Life Satisfaction, and Economic Motivation

The literature in economic psychology and quality-of-life studies alludes to a negative relationship between materialism and life satisfaction. In contrast, the macroeconomic literature implies a positive relationship between material consumption and economic growth. That is, materialism may be both good and bad. We develop a model that reconciles these two contrasting viewpoints by asserting that materialism may lead to life dissatisfaction when materialistic people evaluate their standard of living using fantasy-based expectations (e.g., ideal expectations), which increases the likelihood that they would evaluate their standard of living negatively. In turn, dissatisfaction with standard of living increases the likelihood that they would evaluate their life negatively. However, materialistic people who evaluate their standard of living using reality-based expectations (e.g., ability expectations) are likely to feel more economically motivated than their non-materialistic counterparts, and this economic motivation is likely to contribute significantly and positively to life satisfaction. Survey data were collected from seven major cities each in a different country (Australia, Bosnia/Herzegovina, Germany, Egypt, Korea, Turkey, and the USA) using a probability sample (cluster sampling method involving income stratification). The results provide support for the model. The economic public policy implications concerning how people evaluate their standard of living using ability-based expectations are discussed in the context of the ideals of meritocracy.     

A new EPQ model: integrating lower pricing,rework and reject situations

The economic production quantity (EPQ) is a well-known and commonly used inventory control technique. It has been used for well over 50 years to optimize lot sizes in transportation/production. The standard results are easy to apply but are based on a number of assumptions. A common assumption in the EPQ model is that all units produced are of perfect quality, this will underestimate the actual required quantity. Many researchers have studied the effects after relaxing this assumption on the EPQ model. The previous studies had considered that imperfect quality and defective items are either to be reworked instantaneously and kept in stock or rejected at a cost. The objective of this paper is to provide a framework to integrate lower pricing, rework and reject situations into a single EPQ model. A 100% inspection is performed in order to identify the amount of good quality items, imperfect quality items and defective items in each lot. This model assumes that items of imperfect quality, not necessarily defective, could be used in another production situation or sold to a particular purchaser at a lower price. The electronic and clothing industries give good examples for such situations. A mathematical model is developed and a numerical example is presented to illustrate the solution procedures. It is found that the time factor of when to sell the imperfect items is critical, as this decision will affect the inventory cost and the batch quantities.