On some characteristics of China's population--analysis of the ten percent sampling tabulation of the 1982 third national population census

Advance results from the 1982 census of China are presented based on a 10 percent sample. Sections are included on age distribution, centenarians, marriage patterns, educational status, and the labor force. Several characteristics of China's population are described in this article, based on a 10% sampling tabulation of the production teams and resident groups of the whole country. Data are included for 100,380,000 people. The proportion of the population aged 0-14 is 33.60%, which marks a decline from figures in the 1964 census (40%). This decline is attributed to family planning and population control efforts. The median age is 22.91 years, which is 2.71 years older than that in the 1964 census. The % of the population aged 15-64 rose from 55.7% in 1964 to 61.5%. The dependency ratio dropped from 79.4% (1964) to 62.6%. There were 3,765 centenarians as of July, 1982; the overwhelming majority live in villages, and most (94.77%) are illiterate or semiliterate. The number of female centenarians is 2.4 times that of males. Marriages are comparatively stable in China. 63.6% of the population aged 15 and over are married, and .59% are divorced. The % of the population remaining single after age 50 is .21% for females, 2.97% for males. The average 1st marriage age is 22.80 years for females and 25.49 years for males. 60.35% of the people have had primary education or above; .44% are college graduates. In 1964, 33.58% of the population illiterate or semiliterate. At present, among people aged 12 and over, 31.90% are illiterate or semiliterate. The rural illiteracy rate is more than twice the urban rate. 51.94% of the total population is employed. Of these, 92.08% are engaged in manual labor. Males exceed females in all professions and occupations. The median age of the employed population is 30.84 years. The level of education among the employed is relatively low: 28.26% are illiterate or semiliterate, and 34.35% have had primary education only.     

Risk Modeling, Assessment, and Management of Lahar Flow Threat

The 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines is considered one of the most violent and destructive volcanic activities in the 20th century. Lahar is the Indonesian term for volcanic ash, and lahar flows resulting from the massive amount of volcanic materials deposited on the mountain's slope posed continued post-eruption threats to the surrounding areas, destroying lives, homes, agricultural products, and infrastructures. Risks of lahar flows were identified immediately after the eruption, with scientific data provided by the Philippine Institute of Volcanology, the U.S. Geological Survey, and other research institutions. However, competing political, economic, and social agendas subordinated the importance of scientific information to policy making. Using systemic risk analysis and management, this article addresses the issues of multiple objectives and the effective integration of scientific techniques into the decision-making process. It provides a modeling framework for identifying, prioritizing, and evaluating policies for managing risk. The major considerations are: (1) applying a holistic approach to risk analysis through hierarchical holographic modeling, (2) applying statistical methods to gain insight into the problem of uncertainty in risk assessment, (3) using multiobjective trade-off analysis to address the issue of multiple decisionmakers and stakeholders in the decision-making process, (4) using the conditional expected value of extreme events to complement and supplement the expected value in quantifying risk, and (5) assessing the impacts of multistage decisions. Numerical examples based on ex post data are formulated to illustrate applications to various problems. The resulting framework from this study can serve as a general baseline model for assessing and managing risks of natural disasters, which the Philippines' lead agency-the National Disaster Coordinating Council (NDCC)-and other related organizations can use for their decision-making processes.     

One-dimensional optimal bounded-shape partitions for Schur convex sum objective functions

Consider the problem of partitioning n nonnegative numbers into p parts, where part i can be assigned n_i numbers with n_i lying in a given range. The goal is to maximize a Schur convex function F whose ith argument is the sum of numbers assigned to part i. The shape of a partition is the vector consisting of the sizes of its parts, further, a shape (without referring to a particular partition) is a vector of nonnegative integers (n₁,..., n_p) which sum to n. A partition is called size-consecutive if there is a ranking of the parts which is consistent with their sizes, and all elements in a higher-ranked part exceed all elements in the lower-ranked part. We demonstrate that one can restrict attention to size-consecutive partitions with shapes that are nonmajorized, we study these shapes, bound their numbers and develop algorithms to enumerate them. Our study extends the analysis of a previous paper by Hwang and Rothblum which discussed the above problem assuming the existence of a majorizing shape. This research is partially supported by ROC National Science grant NSC 92-2115-M-009-014.     

Risk Analysis, Systems Analysis, and Covey's Seven Habits

This article relates problem solving to the common approaches of the gestalt-holistic philosophies of systems analysis, risk analysis, and Stephen Covey's Seven Habits of Highly Effective People. Guiding principles developed on the basis of these philosophies provide the foundations for methodological frameworks that build on a plethora of theory, methods, tools, and techniques. Although systems analysis and risk analysis differ in their historical evolution and technical maturity, both study and solve problems using methodological frameworks that share a holistic vision.     

Solving the part families problem in discrete-parts manufacture by simulated annealing

In the production planning and control of discrete-parts manufacture, aggregation of parts into families, on the basis of similarity, is carried out to ease both long-horizon planning and short-horizon scheduling. Additional advantages are related to those of group technology (GT), such as simplifying the flow of parts and tools and reducing both set-up and production costs. The problem of formally forming part families is presented and discussed. Previous work is reviewed and assessed. Two solution approaches, one based on a location model, the other on simulated annealing, are presented and compared along with test results. The location formulation, which results in an integer programming model solved by Lagrangian relaxation, proved capable of producing solutions of excellent quality, but only for relatively small problem instances. In contrast, simulated annealing, which is a general heuristic approach to combinatorial optimization, produced solutions of comparable quality and could handle realistically large problem instances. However, careful design of the simulated annealing algorithm is crucially important. An effective design is presented.     

Fitting Hierarchical Holographic Modeling into the Theory of Scenario Structuring and a Resulting Refinement to the Quantitative Definition of Risk

A point of view is suggested from which the Hierarchical Holographic Modeling (HHM) method can be seen as one more method within the Theory of Scenario Structuring (TSS), which is that part of Quantitative Risk Assessment having to do with the task of identifying the set of risk scenarios. Seen in this way, HHM brings strongly to our attention the fact that different methods within TSS can result in different sets of risk scenarios for the same underlying problem. Although this is not a problem practically, it is a bit awkward conceptually from the standpoint of the "set of triplets" definition of risk, in which the scenario set is part of the definition. Accordingly, the present article suggests a refinement to the set of triplets definition, which removes the specific set of scenarios, found by any of the TSS methods, from the definition of risk and casts it, instead, as an approximation to the "true" set of scenarios that is native to the problem at hand and not affected by the TSS method used.     

中国特困供养服务的现状与问题——基于江苏省的实证研究

《“健康中国2030”规划纲要》提出要保障低收入人群的健康,特困人员供养制度作为中华人民共和国成立以来一直存在并不断发展完善的具备中国特色的社会保障制度,致力于提供特殊困难人群的生存及健康保障。近年来,我国特困供养服务保障有了重要的进展,但城乡之间、不同经济发展水平地区之间的保障差距依然存在着发展不平衡、不充分的问题。文章用定性访谈与问卷调查方法,通过对江苏省特困供养政策和实践的调查分析,了解特困供养制度的运行状况、成效与问题,并借鉴国际上特困及弱势群体救助制度和实施的经验,为我国特困供养制度的建设与完善提供参考。     

洛必答法则使用技巧及注意事项浅析

洛必答法则是求解极限的一个非常重要的方法,一般教材的编写,只是着重例题类型的分类专门讨论,在技巧的讨论上着墨较少,文章则从洛必答法则使用技巧以及注意事项方面针对一些实例做出浅析.     

Convergence rates for uniform confidence intervals based on local polynomial regression estimators

We investigate the convergence rates of uniform bias-corrected confidence intervals for a smooth curve using local polynomial regression for both the interior and boundary region. We discuss the cases when the degree of the polynomial is odd and even. The uniform confidence intervals are based on the volume-of-tube formula modified for biased estimators. We empirically show that the proposed uniform confidence intervals attain, at least approximately, nominal coverage. Finally, we investigate the performance of the volume-of-tube based confidence intervals for independent non-Gaussian errors.