Individual Uncertainty About Longevity

This article presents an assessment of individual uncertainty about longevity. A survey performed on 3,331 French people enables us to record several survival probabilities per individual. On this basis, we compute subjective life expectancies (SLE) and subjective uncertainty regarding longevity (SUL), the standard deviation of each individual’s subjective distribution of her or his own longevity. It is large and equal to more than 10 years for men and women. Its magnitude is comparable to the variability of longevity observed in life tables for individuals under 60, but it is smaller for those older than 60, which suggests use of private information by older respondents. Our econometric analysis confirms that individuals use private information—mainly their parents’ survival and longevity—to adjust their level of uncertainty. Finally, we find that SUL has a sizable impact, in addition to SLE, on risky behaviors: more uncertainty on longevity significantly decreases the probability of unhealthy lifestyles. Given that individual uncertainty about longevity affects prevention behavior, retirement decisions, and demand for long-term care insurance, these results have important implications for public policy concerning health care and retirement.     

Infant–Mother and Infant–Caregiver Emotional Relationships: Process Analyses of Interactions in Three Contemporary Childcare Arrangements

Emotional relationships in infant–mother dyads in families where mothers provided full‐time childcare were compared with those of families where mothers used in‐home childcare providers and family childcare providers (N = 245). Infant relationships with childcare providers were also studied. Emotional relationships were adequate in all three childcare arrangements, but infant–mother dyads in in‐home childcare arrangements displayed healthier emotional relationships than infant–mother dyads in mother care arrangements; no differences in the health of emotional relationships with infants emerged among the three types of childcare providers (mother care, in‐home childcare, family childcare). Infant–mother dyads in in‐home childcare arrangements also displayed healthier emotional relationships than infant–in‐home childcare caregiver dyads, but infant–mother and infant–caregiver dyads were comparable in family childcare families. Emotional relationships in infant–mother and infant–caregiver dyads were not correlated, regardless of the type of childcare.     

The undercut procedure: an algorithm for the envy-free division of indivisible items

We propose a procedure for dividing a set of indivisible items between two players. We assume that each player’s preference over subsets of items is consistent with a strict ranking of the items, and that neither player has information about the other’s preferences. Our procedure ensures an envy-free division—each player receives a subset of items that it values more than the other player’s complementary subset—given that an envy-free division of “contested items,” which the players would choose at the same time, is possible. We show that the possibility of one player’s undercutting the other’s proposal, and implementing the reduced subset for himself or herself, makes the proposer “reasonable,” and generally leads to an envy-free division, even when the players rank items exactly the same. Although the undercut procedure is manipulable and its envy-free allocation may be Pareto-inferior, each player’s maximin strategy is to be truthful. Applications of the procedure are discussed briefly.     

Konformit?t durch Herdenverhalten

The adjustment of one??s own actions to the behavior of others offers an inexpensive alternative to self-reliant reasoning. Thus, from a sociological perspective conformity mirrors informative social influences. First, a basic model of social herding is presented, which describes initial conditions and consequences of informational imitation. Central implications of the model are then tested using process-produced data from the German book market (2001?C2006). While the release of public information as well as announcements by opinion leaders trigger conformity under imperfect information, these stimuli show no effects when the general availability of information is improved. Moreover, the availability of information among readers determines the quality of emerging bestsellers. Altogether, the model of herd behavior proves useful in understanding demand processes in book markets.     

Links between childhood physical abuse and intimate partner aggression: the mediating role of anger expression

Research linking childhood physical abuse (CPA) and adult intimate partner aggression (IPA) has focused on individuals without sufficient attention to couple processes. In this study, 109 couples reported on histories of CPA, IPA, and anger expression. Actor-partner interdependence model (APIM) was used to examine links between CPA and revictimization and perpetration of IPA, with anger suppression as a potential mediator. Women's CPA histories were associated with more physical aggression towards and more revictimization by partners. Men's CPA histories were only associated at the trend level with their revictimization. Anger suppression fully mediated the link between women's CPA and both revictimization and perpetration of IPA. Findings suggest that women with CPA histories are more prone to suppress anger, which leaves them at greater risk for revictimization and perpetration of IPA.     

Condom Use Trajectories in Adolescence and the Transition to Adulthood: The Role of Mother and Father Support

Few studies have investigated how mother and father support differ on predicting youths' sexual risk behavior. We therefore examined the influence of parental support on condom use trajectories and its correlates in a predominantly African American sample [(N=627; 53% female; M = 14.86 years (SD=. 64)] from adolescence to young adulthood. We used hierarchical growth curve modeling to examine the relationship between condom use, substance use, psychological distress and parental support prospectively. We found that consistent condom use decreased over time and was associated negatively with psychological distress and substance use. Furthermore, both maternal and paternal support were associated with more condom use over time. We discuss the implications of our findings for HIV prevention programs.     

Movement-in-depth, cognitive impairment, and crash risk

In this study, 243 cognitively intact and cognitively impaired older participants' movement-in-depth (looming) abilities were assessed using a portable device that we had previously developed in our laboratory. Results indicated normative relationships between looming ability and age, looming ability and driving violation records, and age and driving violation records. Findings also confirmed the validity and reliability of the measurements taken with the device. In conclusion, this device may be useful for identifying drivers at risk for rear-end collisions, developing effective training interventions, and creating fair and valid driver licensing tests.     

An Overview of and Rationale for Changes Proposed for Pathological Gambling in DSM-5

The fifth revision of the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM-5) is scheduled for publication in 2013. It will include several changes to the diagnosis of pathological gambling: the name of the disorder will be altered, the threshold for diagnosis will decrease, and one criterion will be removed. This paper reviews the rationale for these changes and addresses how they may impact diagnosis and treatment of the disorder, as well as potential for future research in the field.     

COST INCREASES DUE TO DEMAND UNCERTAINTY IN MRP LOT SIZING

This paper analyzes the cost increases due to demand uncertainty in single-level MRP lot sizing on a rolling horizon. It is shown that forecast errors have a tremendous effect on the cost effectiveness of lot-sizing techniques even when these forecast errors are small. Moreover, the cost differences between different techniques become rather insignificant in the presence of forecast errors. Since most industrial firms face demand uncertainty to some extent, our findings may have important managerial implications. Various simulation experiments give insight into both the nature and the magnitude of the cost increases for different heuristics. Analytical results are developed for the constant-demand case with random noise and forecasting by exponential smoothing. It is also shown how optimal buffers can be obtained by use of a simple model. Although the analysis in this paper is restricted to simplified cases, the results merit further consideration and study. This paper is one of the first to inject forecast errors into MRP lot-sizing research. As such it attempts to deal with one of the major objections against the practical relevance of previous research in this area.