Estimation of the Force of Infection from Current Status Data Using Generalized Linear Mixed Models

Based on sero-prevalence data of rubella, mumps in the UK and varicella in Belgium, we show how the force of infection, the age-specific rate at which susceptible individuals contract infection, can be estimated using generalized linear mixed models (McCulloch & Searle, 2001). Modelling the dependency of the force of infection on age by penalized splines, which involve fixed and random effects, allows us to use generalized linear mixed models techniques to estimate both the cumulative probability of being infected before a given age and the force of infection. Moreover, these models permit an automatic selection of the smoothing parameter. The smoothness of the estimated force of infection can be influenced by the number of knots and the degree of the penalized spline used. To determine these, a different number of knots and different degrees are used and the results are compared to establish this sensitivity. Simulations with a different number of knots and polynomial spline bases of different degrees suggest - for estimating the force of infection from serological data - the use of a quadratic penalized spline based on about 10 knots.     

Feminist Criminology: Gain, Loss and Backlash

Surviving the inevitable process of innovation, critique and response that accompanies conceptual invention, feminist criminology is now a rich and diverse field of scholarship and political activism. This article follows the main threads of feminist criminological thought (empirical, standpoint and post-modern), outlining the tensions and connections between each. I then consider the political ground gained and lost by feminist criminologists, paying careful attention to the ways in which feminist ideas have been co-opted by governing authorities and also considering the current climate of backlash against feminist ideas in both criminal justice policy and the academy.     

Assessment of the Effectiveness of Radon Screening Programs in Reducing Lung Cancer Mortality

The present study was aimed at assessing the health consequences of the presence of radon in Quebec homes and the possible impact of various screening programs on lung cancer mortality. Lung cancer risk due to this radioactive gas was estimated according to the cancer risk model developed by the Sixth Committee on Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiations. Objective data on residential radon exposure, population mobility, and tobacco use in the study population were integrated into a Monte‐Carlo‐type model. Participation rates to radon screening programs were estimated from published data. According to the model used, approximately 10% of deaths due to lung cancer are attributable to residential radon exposure on a yearly basis in Quebec. In the long term, the promotion of a universal screening program would prevent less than one death/year on a province‐wide scale (0.8 case; IC 99%: –3.6 to 5.2 cases/year), for an overall reduction of 0.19% in radon‐related mortality. Reductions in mortality due to radon by (1) the implementation of a targeted screening program in the region with the highest concentrations, (2) the promotion of screening on a local basis with financial support, or (3) the realization of systematic investigations in primary and secondary schools would increase to 1%, 14%, and 16.4%, respectively, in the each of the populations targeted by these scenarios. Other than the battle against tobacco use, radon screening in public buildings thus currently appears as the most promising screening policy for reducing radon‐related lung cancer.     

A case-based distance method for screening in multiple-criteria decision aid

Screening is a process of multiple-criteria decision aid (MCDA) in which a large set of alternatives is reduced to a smaller set that most likely contains the best choice. We propose screening using a distance model calibrated on the basis of the decision-maker's own judgement. Viewing MCDA as preference aggregation based on consequence data, we define consequence and preference expressions (values and weights) and describe how they are aggregated. Then we define screening and explain some of its properties. Using an appropriate definition of distance, our case-based distance method screens a set of alternatives using criterion weights and a distance threshold obtained by quadratic optimization using the decision-maker's selection of alternatives from a test set. This case-based method can elicit the decision maker's preferences more expeditiously and accurately than direct inquiry. An application in water supply planning is used to demonstrate the procedure.     

Ethnic Group Differences in Adolescents' Responses to AIDS

Adolescents of Anglo-Celtic, Greek, Italian and Chinese descent attending a wide range of post-secondary institutions in Victoria (mean age = 18 years) were asked about their sexual behaviours, knowledge about AIDS, and social responses to the threat of AIDS. There was evidence of relatively high levels of sexual activity, with some members of all groups engaging in risky sexual behaviour. Anglo-Australians were more sexually active and informed about AIDS, with more equality between the sexes in these respects than the other groups. There was a distinction made between behaviours regarded as safe with regular and casual partners, but the meaning attributed to regular partnership differed. Greek- and Italian-Australian young men endorsed monogamy for their regular partners but not necessarily for themselves, and Anglo-Australians accepted a relationship of shorter duration as regular. Greater knowledge was not related to safer sexual behaviour, but discussion about a regular partner's previous sexual history correlated with more risky sexual behaviour. Overall, risk levels were not high but the casual-regular partner distinction, together with the greater use of relatively unrealistic strategies for dealing with AIDS in association with risky behaviour in the non-Anglo groups, gives cause for concern.     

Fundamental references from the Western culture

This article presents theoretical elements concerning the ‘nature versus culture’ confrontation as a particular aspect of the worldwide expansion of Western civilization. Several speculations are made concerning the philosophical foundations which have provided the base for the current political and economic mega-scenarios in the contemporary world. We turn our attention to the articulations of the concept of nature with the processes of mondialization of Western culture and with the history of universal culture. Finally, several considerations are made on the dynamics of economic processes on a world scale and projections on the impact of science and technology in the social and political frames that are taking place in the contemporary world.     

Complex Interrelations of Trait Vulnerabilities in Mothers and their Infants

Despite the developmental and clinical relevance of this area of inquiry, no studies have examined the interrelations of trait vulnerabilities in the affective, behavioral, and interpersonal domains between mothers and their infants. Thus, this study examined the interrelations of three trait vulnerabilities (i.e., negative affective intensity, impulsivity, and insecure attachment) between mothers and their 12‐ to 23‐month‐old infants, focusing in particular on the unique and interactive influence of these maternal trait vulnerabilities on the expression of and precursors to these traits in their infants. Mother–infant dyads (N = 101) completed several laboratory procedures, and mothers reported on their own and their infants' expressions of the trait vulnerabilities of interest. Findings from this study provide preliminary evidence for intergenerational relations between these traits and suggest that it is the confluence of trait vulnerabilities in mothers that relates to the early expression of some of these traits in infants.     

Does digitization lead to the homogenization of cultural content?

Using weekly music charts data in 10 countries over the period 1990–2015, we analyze whether digitization leads to a trend of homogenization of music content or conversely to a greater acoustic disparity. We split the digitization era in four periods that correspond to four new emblematic distribution models (Napster, iTunes, YouTube, Spotify). Our main result is that while acoustic diversity decreased during the iTunes and the YouTube periods, the period that begins with the introduction of audio streaming services, such as Spotify, represents a turning point and is marked by a significant increase in acoustic diversity.     

The weight of the rich: improving surveys using tax data

The Journal of Economic Inequality - Household surveys often fail to capture the top tail of income and wealth distributions, as evidenced by studies based on tax data. Yet to date there is no...