Evaluation of Scenarios for Reducing Human Salmonellosis Through Household Consumption of Fresh Minced Pork Meat

Nontyphoidal salmonellosis is the second most frequently reported zoonotic disease in the European Union (EU) and is considered to be a major threat to human health worldwide. The most reported Salmonella serovar in the EU is S. Enteritidis, mainly associated with egg contamination, followed by S. Typhimurium, with the latter being the most predominant serovar isolated from pork. These findings suggest that reducing the Salmonella contamination in the pork production might be a good strategy to prevent and control human salmonellosis in the EU. Recently, a quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) has been developed to assess the risks for human salmonellosis due to home consumption of fresh minced pork meat in Belgium.⁽ 1 ⁾ The newly developed risk model is called the METZOON model. In the current study, the METZOON model was used to evaluate the effectiveness of different hypothetical Salmonella mitigation strategies implemented at different stages of the minced pork production and consumption chain by means of a scenario analysis. To efficiently evaluate the mitigation strategies, model results were obtained by running simulations using the randomized complete block design. The effectiveness of a mitigation strategy is expressed using point and interval estimates of the effect size for dependent observations, expressed as the standardized difference in population means. The results indicate that the most effective strategies are taken during the slaughter processes of polishing, evisceration, and chilling, and during postprocessing, whereas interventions in the primary production and at the beginning of the slaughter process seem to have only a limited effect. Improving consumer awareness is found to be effective as well.     

A Coalition Perspective on Nonprofit Governance Quality: Analyzing Dimensions of Influence in an Exploratory Comparative Case Analysis

We answer the call that governance research should focus more on processes outside the boundaries of boards, especially for nonprofit organizations. In particular, we suggest and elaborate concrete steps with respect to the advantages of a leadership coalition perspective to focus more on the behavioral and informal aspects of governance. Through a comparative case analysis of five nonprofit organizations, we explore contingencies between characteristics of nonprofit leadership coalitions and governance quality. We identify two dimensions to classify leadership coalitions: centralized versus diffused influence and specific versus holistic influence. These dimensions are subsequently related with observed governance quality. We frame our finding in the existing literature on group faultlines, which are socially constructed dividing lines within groups, and we discuss the importance of establishing a balanced coalition between a weak or nonexisting and a strong dominant coalition to ensure high governance quality. We also present propositions on how governance quality and its various sub-dimensions can be studied as a complex, nonlinear intermediate concept between coalitional aspects of leadership groups and nonprofit organizational performance. Finally, we discuss concrete avenues for further testing and verification of our theoretical interpretation.     

INCENTIVES FOR DISHONESTY: AN EXPERIMENTAL STUDY WITH INTERNAL AUDITORS

We conduct an experiment with professional internal auditors and evaluate their performance and objectivity, measured as the extent to which they truthfully report the performance of other participants in a real-effort task. In line with our hypotheses, we find that incentive-based compensation increases dishonest behavior: competitive incentives lead to under-reporting of other participants' performance, while collective incentives lead to over-reporting of performance. We replicate these results with a student sample. In addition, we find that moving from an environment with objective performance evaluation toward a peer evaluation scheme reduces performance among internal auditors, but not among students.(JEL C93, M42, M52)     

Underprotection of Unpredictable Statistical Lives Compared to Predictable Ones

Existing ethical discussion considers the differences in care for identified versus statistical lives. However, there has been little attention to the different degrees of care that are taken for different kinds of statistical lives. Here we argue that for a given number of statistical lives at stake, there will sometimes be different, and usually greater, care taken to protect predictable statistical lives, in which the number of lives that will be lost can be predicted fairly accurately, than for unpredictable statistical lives, where the lives are at stake because of a low‐probability event, such that most likely no one will be affected by the decision but with low probability some lives will be at stake. One reason for this difference is the statistical challenge of estimating low probabilities, and in particular the tendency of common approaches to underestimate these probabilities. Another is the existence of rational incentives to treat unpredictable risks as if the probabilities were lower than they are. Some of these factors apply outside the pure economic context, to institutions, individuals, and governments. We argue that there is no ethical reason to treat unpredictable statistical lives differently from predictable statistical lives. Moreover, lives that are unpredictable from the perspective of an individual agent may become predictable when aggregated to the level of a societal decision. Underprotection of unpredictable statistical lives is a form of market failure that may need to be corrected by altering regulation, introducing compulsory liability insurance, or other social policies.     

Kendall's tau for serial dependence

The authors show how Kendall's tau can be adapted to test against serial dependence in a univariate time series context. They provide formulas for the mean and variance of circular and noncircular versions of this statistic, and they prove its asymptotic normality under the hypothesis of independence. They present also a Monte Carlo study comparing the power and size of a test based on Kendall's tau with the power and size of competing procedures based on alternative parametric and nonparametric measures of serial dependence. In particular, their simulations indicate that Kendall's tau outperforms Spearman's rho in detecting first‐order autoregressive dependence, despite the fact that these two statistics are asymptotically equivalent under the null hypothesis, as well as under local alternatives.     

Maternal Sensitivity and Child Responsiveness: Associations with Social Context,Maternal Characteristics,and Child Characteristics in a Multivariate Analysis

This study examined unique associations of multiple distal context variables (family socioeconomic status [SES], maternal employment, and paternal parenting) and proximal maternal (personality, intelligence, and knowledge; behavior, self‐perceptions, and attributions) and child (age, gender, representation, language, and sociability) characteristics with maternal sensitivity and child responsiveness in 254 European American mothers and their firstborn 20‐month‐olds. Specific unique relations emerged in hierarchical regression analyses. Mothers who worked fewer hours per week and reported less dissonance in their husbands' didactic parenting, whose children spoke using more vocabulary, and who reported less limit setting in their parenting and attributed their parenting failures to internal causes were observed to be more sensitive in their interactions with their children. Children in higher SES families, whose mothers worked fewer hours and attributed their parenting failures to internal causes, and who themselves used more vocabulary were observed to be more responsive in their interactions with their mothers. Although potential associations are many, when considered together, unique associations with maternal sensitivity and child responsiveness are few, and some are shared whereas others are unique.     

Model Averaging Using Fractional Polynomials to Estimate a Safe Level of Exposure

Quantitative risk assessment involves the determination of a safe level of exposure. Recent techniques use the estimated dose-response curve to estimate such a safe dose level. Although such methods have attractive features, a low-dose extrapolation is highly dependent on the model choice. Fractional polynomials, basically being a set of (generalized) linear models, are a nice extension of classical polynomials, providing the necessary flexibility to estimate the dose-response curve. Typically, one selects the best-fitting model in this set of polynomials and proceeds as if no model selection were carried out. We show that model averaging using a set of fractional polynomials reduces bias and has better precision in estimating a safe level of exposure (say, the benchmark dose), as compared to an estimator from the selected best model. To estimate a lower limit of this benchmark dose, an approximation of the variance of the model-averaged estimator, as proposed by Burnham and Anderson, can be used. However, this is a conservative method, often resulting in unrealistically low safe doses. Therefore, a bootstrap-based method to more accurately estimate the variance of the model averaged parameter is proposed.     

Adolescents' Peer Crowd Identification in the Netherlands: Structure and Associations with Problem Behaviors

The present paper examined the underlying structure of Dutch adolescents' peer crowd identification and its relations with delinquency, aggression, depression, and anxiety. Questionnaire data were gathered from 2,334 adolescents between ages 12 and 19. Exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses revealed four clearly interpretable crowd‐identification dimensions: Alternative, Urban, Conventional, and Achievement Oriented. Identification with the Alternative and Urban dimensions was found to be positively related to depression, delinquency, and aggression. With regard to the Urban dimension, also a positive association was found with anxiety. Identification with the Conventional‐ and Achievement Oriented dimensions was found to be negatively related to delinquency. A negative associations was also found between the Achievement Oriented dimension and aggression. Roughly the same pattern of associations was found for boys and girls, and younger and older adolescents. Our results generally confirm findings from studies relating adolescent crowd identification to adjustment performed in the United States and Australia.