Can we declare military Keynesianism dead?

This paper empirically tests the Keynesian hypothesis that government defence spending positively impacts on aggregate output, by using a long-run equilibrium model for the US and the UK.Our contribution, with respect to previous works, is twofold. First, our inferences are adjusted for structural breaks exhibited by the data concerning fiscal and monetary variables. Second, we take into account different dynamics between defence spending on aggregate output, showing that the results are sensitive to sub-sample choices. Though the estimated elasticities in both countries show a lack of significance in the more recent years of the sample, defence-spending priorities addressed to international security may revitalize pro-cyclical effects in the UK, by an industrial policy of defence shared with the EU members.     

A finite mixture model for multivariate counts under endogenous selectivity

We describe a selection model for multivariate counts, where association between the primary outcomes and the endogenous selection source is modeled through outcome-specific latent effects which are assumed to be dependent across equations. Parametric specifications of this model already exist in the literature; in this paper, we show how model parameters can be estimated in a finite mixture context. This approach helps us to consider overdispersed counts, while allowing for multivariate association and endogeneity of the selection variable. In this context, attention is focused both on bias in estimated effects when exogeneity of selection (treatment) variable is assumed, as well as on consistent estimation of the association between the random effects in the primary and in the treatment effect models, when the latter is assumed endogeneous. The model behavior is investigated through a large scale simulation experiment. An empirical example on health care utilization data is provided.     

Regional mismatch and unemployment: theory and evidence from Italy, 1977–1998

We describe the functioning of a two-region economy characterized by asymmetric wage setting. Labour market tightness in the leading-region affects wages in the whole economy. In equilibrium, net labour demand shifts towards the leading region raise unemployment elsewhere and leave regional wages unchanged, causing an increase in aggregate unemployment. Based on SHIW micro-data on earnings, we find strong evidence that wages in Italy only respond to Northern unemployment. We estimate that around 33% of the increase in Italian unemployment during 1977–1998 can be explained by regional mismatch, mainly due to an excess labour supply growth in the South.

INFORMATION SHARING IN COMMON AGENCY: WHEN IS TRANSPARENCY GOOD?

When should principals dealing with a common agent share their individual performance measures about the agent's unobservable effort for producing a public good? In a model with two principals who offer linear incentive schemes, we show that information sharing always increases total expected welfare if the principal who is less informed about the agent's effort also cares more about the agent's output. If the less‐informed principal cares somewhat (but not too much) less than the other principal about the agent's output, information sharing reduces total expected welfare. In our model the efficient information regime emerges as an equilibrium outcome. (JEL: D82, D86, M52)     

Generalized linear mixed joint model for longitudinal and survival outcomes

Longitudinal studies often entail categorical outcomes as primary responses. When dropout occurs, non-ignorability is frequently accounted for through shared parameter models (SPMs). In this context, several extensions from Gaussian to non-Gaussian longitudinal processes have been proposed. In this paper, we formulate an approach for non-Gaussian longitudinal outcomes in the framework of joint models. As an extension of SPMs, based on shared latent effects, we assume that the history of the response up to current time may have an influence on the risk of dropout. This history is represented by the current, expected, value of the response. Since the time a subject spends in the study is continuous, we parametrize the dropout process through a proportional hazard model. The resulting model is referred to as Generalized Linear Mixed Joint Model (GLMJM). To estimate model parameters, we adopt a maximum likelihood approach via the EM algorithm. In this context, the maximization of the observed data log-likelihood requires numerical integration over the random effect posterior distribution, which is usually not straightforward; under the assumption of Gaussian random effects, we compare Gauss-Hermite and Pseudo-Adaptive Gaussian quadrature rules. We investigate in a simulation study the behaviour of parameter estimates in the case of Poisson and Binomial longitudinal responses, and apply the GLMJM to a benchmark dataset.     

The forward search: Theory and data analysis

The Forward Search is a powerful general method, incorporating flexible data-driven trimming, for the detection of outliers and unsuspected structure in data and so for building robust models. Starting from small subsets of data, observations that are close to the fitted model are added to the observations used in parameter estimation. As this subset grows we monitor parameter estimates, test statistics and measures of fit such as residuals. The paper surveys theoretical development in work on the Forward Search over the last decade. The main illustration is a regression example with 330 observations and 9 potential explanatory variables. Mention is also made of procedures for multivariate data, including clustering, time series analysis and fraud detection.     

A Reduced Posetic Approach to the Measurement of Multidimensional Ordinal Deprivation

In this paper, we discuss the existence of particular systems of generators for posets associated to multidimensional systems of ordinal indicators and derive a reduced posetic procedure for the measurement of multidimensional ordinal deprivation. The proposal is motivated by the need to lessen the computational complexity of the original posetic procedure described in Fattore (Soc Indic Res 128(2):835–858, 2015), so as to make it applicable to larger multi-indicator systems, particularly to those comprising many variables scored on “short” scales, as typical in deprivation studies. The reduced procedure computes identification and severity functions based only on so-called lexicographic linear extensions. These are a particular generating system for the basic achievement poset, naturally associated to rankings of deprivation attributes. After motivating this choice, both from an interpretative and a computational point of view, the paper provides some simulated examples, comparing the reduced and the non-reduced procedures.     

The Insidious Effects of Sexual Stereotypes in Clinical Practice

The present study investigated the influence of sexual stereotyping on the diagnostic impressions and treatment expectations of gay and straight male patients. Italian male, straight, licensed psychotherapists (N = 152) were presented with clinical vignettes that described a gay (versus straight) male patient reporting either a straight-stereotypical disorder (i.e., rage dyscontrol) or a gay-stereotypical disorder (i.e., sexual compulsivity). Results revealed that treatment efficacy expectations were influenced by the patient’s sexual orientation and the stereotypicality of the disorder. Specifically, psychotherapists anticipated fewer benefits from psychotherapy when gay patients reported a sexual disorder rather than a rage disorder. Furthermore, explicit and implicit levels of sexual prejudice did not play any role in driving such results. Taken together, these findings reveal that sexual stereotyping might exert its subtle effects among clinicians by influencing their clinical evaluations.     

The influence of accountability for the crisis and type of crisis communication on people’s behavior,feelings and relationship with the government

In this paper we investigated to what extent the willingness of people to take advice from the local government, people’s feelings of collective efficacy and empowerment, and their relationship with the local government, is dependent on whether the local government was accountable for the crisis or not. In addition, we were interested in the influence of empathic versus neutral crisis information on people’s behavior, feelings and their relationship with the local government. The results indicate that people’s intention to follow the advice of the local government is generally high, even when the local government is held accountable for the crisis. However, accountability negatively influenced people’s relationship with the local government, as well as collective efficacy. Our research shows that this negative outcome for people’s relationship with the local government cannot be countered by empathic crisis information. However, conveying empathic concern in the crisis information did enhance level of collective efficacy.     

Governing multicultural Brussels: paradoxes of a multi-level,multi-cultural,multi-national urban anomaly

ABSTRACT

Updating our earlier work on Brussels as the paradigm of a multi-level, multi-cultural, multi-national city, and in the context of Brussels’s recent troubled emergence as the epicentre of violent conflict between radical political Islam and the West, this paper sets out the paradoxical intersection of national (i.e. Flemish and Francophone), non-national and ethnic minority politics in a city placed as a multi-cultural and multi-national ‘urban anomaly’ at the heart of linguistic struggle of the two dominant Belgian communities. Brussels is one of the three Regions of the Belgian federal model alongside Flanders and Wallonia. It is also an extraordinarily diverse and cosmopolitan city, in which a mixed language Belgian population lives alongside very high numbers of resident non-nationals, including European elites, other European immigrant workers, and immigrants from Africa and Asia. After laying out the complex distribution of power and competences within the Belgian federal structure, we explore whether these structures have worked over the years to include or exclude disadvantaged ethnic groups. To better understand these processes, we introduce our view of the multi-level governance perspective.