Confidence biases and learning among intuitive Bayesians

We design a double-or-quits game to compare the speed of learning one’s specific ability with the speed of rising confidence as the task gets increasingly difficult. We find that people on average learn to be overconfident faster than they learn their true ability and we present an intuitive-Bayesian model of confidence which integrates confidence biases and learning. Uncertainty about one’s true ability to perform a task in isolation can be responsible for large and stable confidence biases, namely limited discrimination, the hard–easy effect, the Dunning–Kruger effect, conservative learning from experience and the overprecision phenomenon (without underprecision) if subjects act as Bayesian learners who rely only on sequentially perceived performance cues and contrarian illusory signals induced by doubt. Moreover, these biases are likely to persist since the Bayesian aggregation of past information consolidates the accumulation of errors and the perception of contrarian illusory signals generates conservatism and under-reaction to events. Taken together, these two features may explain why intuitive Bayesians make systematically wrong predictions of their own performance.     

Women Acting for Women

In the new country of Timor-Leste, women constituted in 2011 32 per cent of the parliament, a relatively high figure in the world and in the region. But to what extent has the presence of women in parliament contributed to progress towards gender equality? In this article we argue that the passage of a parliamentary resolution on gender-responsive budgeting in Timor-Leste was an act of substantive representation, and we draw on a range of data to examine what made it possible. We find that while ‘newness’, international norms, women's movement unity, women's machinery in government and parliament and networks linking them were important, it was the development of a cross-party parliamentary women's caucus that was crucial to success. The role of gender-focused parliamentary institutions in supporting critical actors has rarely been examined in the literature on substantive representation. This is in contrast to the rich literature on institutions such as women's policy agencies. Our study suggests that more focus on parliamentary institutions is needed to discover what enables women parliamentarians to become critical actors.     

Coming out strategies of lesbians and gays at work / Estrategias de coming out de personas lesbianas y gays en el trabajo

Abstract

In recent years there has been a great deal of social and legislative progress in the struggle against discrimination on grounds of sexual orientation. However, the coming out process in the workplace is still a crucial aspect in the lives of many lesbians and gays (LG). This study sets out to analyse the different strategies that Spanish LG adopt when revealing their sexual orientation at work by identifying the factors that facilitate or hinder this process. It also analyses the personal and organizational consequences of the strategies used in the coming out process. The study was carried out through in-depth interviews with 15 LG. Results show that the coming out strategies vary and are affected by different factors (e.g., characteristics of the colleagues, sector, etc.). Moreover, it confirmed that the coming out process (or its absence) can have consequences at different levels (e.g., relationships with colleagues, perception of organizational injustice, etc.).     

The State,the Market and Cultural Diversity

This essay compares the logic of states and the logic of markets in the management of cultural diversity. On the one hand, the economic logic of markets leads to an encouragement of a ‘soft’ cultural diversity associated with the marketing of exoticism in music, the arts and cuisine, for example. On the other hand, the liberal states are trapped between their willingness to recognize some form of diversity and their fear of seeing social cohesion harmed by this recognition. In other words, the essay applies Hollified's hypothesis about the liberal paradox in immigration policy to the sphere of cultural diversity in post-immigration situations.     

A multicriteria decision analysis model for faculty evaluation

In the context of increasing demands for social and financial accountability of universities, the required implementation of transparent faculty evaluation systems constitutes a challenge and an opportunity for universities strategically aligning the activity of academic staff with the university goals. However, despite growing interest in the performance appraisal of faculty, only a few reported studies propose models that cover the full range of academic activities and the models in use are typically based on ad hoc scoring systems that lack theoretical soundness. This article approaches faculty evaluation from an innovative comprehensive perspective. Based on the concepts and methods of multiple criteria value measurement, it proposes a new faculty evaluation model that addresses the whole range of academic activities and can be applied within and across distinct scientific areas, while respecting their specificities. Constructed through a socio-technical process, the model was designed for and adopted by the Instituto Superior Técnico, the engineering school of the Technical University of Lisbon. The model has a two-level hierarchical additive structure, with top-level evaluation areas specified by second-level evaluation criteria. A bottom non-additive third level accounts for the quantitative and qualitative dimensions of academic activity related to each evaluation criterion. The model allows (a) the comparison of the performance of academic staff with performance targets reflecting the strategic policy concerns of university management; (b) the definition of the multicriteria value profile of each faculty member at the top level of the evaluation areas; (c) the computation of an overall value score for each faculty member, through an optimisation procedure that makes use of a flexible system of weights and (d) the assignment of faculty members to rating categories.     

Do conditional cash transfers influence migration? A study using experimental data from the Mexican progresa program

Prior research on Mexican migration has shown that social networks and economic incentives play an important role in determining migration outcomes. We use experimental data from PROGRESA, Mexico's primary poverty-reduction program, to evaluate the effects of conditional cash transfers on migration both domestically and to the United States. Our study complements a growing body of literature aimed at overcoming longstanding hurdles to the establishment of causal validity in empirical studies of migration. Analysis based on the data collected before and after the program's onset shows that conditional transfers reduce U.S. migration but not domestic migration. The data also enable us to explore the role of existing family and community migration networks. The results show that migration networks strongly influence migration, but that the effect of conditional transfers on migration is apparently not mediated by existing migration network structures. Our results suggest that conditional transfers may be helpful in managing rural out-migration, particularly to the United States.     

Changing Industrial Metabolism: Methods for Analysis

Research in the field of industrial metabolism traditionally has been focused on measuring and describing physical flows of economic systems. The metabolism of economic systems, however, changes over time, and measuring material flows is insufficient to understand this process. Understanding the relation between economic activities and material flows can help to unravel the socio-economic causes of these physical flows. Three issues are addressed: The importance of spatial scales and trade flows, empirical analysis of relations between economic development and material flows, and treatment of behaviour of and interactions between stakeholders. For each of these issues, methods for analysis are suggested.     

Understanding the twentieth-century decline in chronic conditions among older men

I argue that the shift from manual to white-collar jobs and reduced exposure to infectious disease were important determinants of declines in chronic disease rates among older men from the early 1900s to the 1970s and 1980s. The average decline in chronic respiratory problems, valvular heart disease, arteriosclerosis, and joint and back problems was about 66%. Occupational shifts accounted for 29% of the decline; the decreased prevalence of infectious disease accounted for 18%; the remainder are unexplained. The duration of chronic conditions has remained unchanged since the early 1900s, but when disability is measured by difficulty in walking, men with chronic conditions are less disabled now than they were in the past.     

Stochastic Choice and Consideration Sets

We model a boundedly rational agent who suffers from limited attention. The agent considers each feasible alternative with a given (unobservable) probability, the attention parameter, and then chooses the alternative that maximizes a preference relation within the set of considered alternatives. We show that this random choice rule is the only one for which the impact of removing an alternative on the choice probability of any other alternative is asymmetric and menu independent. Both the preference relation and the attention parameters are identified uniquely by stochastic choice data.