The Modeling and Seasonal Adjustment of Weekly Observations

Several important economic time series are recorded on a particular day every week. Seasonal adjustment of such series is difficult because the number of weeks varies between 52 and 53 and the position of the recording day changes from year to year. In addition certain festivals, most notably Easter, take place at different times according to the year. This article presents a solution to problems of this kind by setting up a structural time series model that allows the seasonal pattern to evolve over time and enables trend extraction and seasonal adjustment to be carried out by means of state-space filtering and smoothing algorithms. The method is illustrated with a Bank of England series on the money supply.     

A reflected feature space for CART

We present an algorithm for learning oblique decision trees, called HHCART(G). Our decision tree combines learning concepts from two classification trees, HHCART and Geometric Decision Tree (GDT). HHCART(G) is a simplified HHCART algorithm that uses linear structure in the training examples, captured by a modified GDT angle bisector, to define splitting directions. At each node, we reflect the training examples with respect to the modified angle bisector to align this linear structure with the coordinate axes. Searching axis parallel splits in this reflected feature space provides an efficient and effective way of finding oblique splits in the original feature space. Our method is much simpler than HHCART because it only considers one reflected feature space for node splitting. HHCART considers multiple reflected feature spaces for node splitting making it more computationally intensive to build. Experimental results show that HHCART(G) is an effective classifier, producing compact trees with similar or better results than several other decision trees, including GDT and HHCART trees.     

Ranking Nursing Homes’ Performances Through a Latent Markov Model with Fixed and Random Effects

Social Indicators Research - In this paper, we aim at ranking a set of nursing homes based on their ability in maintaining their residents’ physical conditions as good as possible. In this...     

Beliefs underlying stress reduction and depression help-seeking among college students: An elicitation study

Objective: This study illustrates how a theory-based approach can identify college students’ beliefs about stress reduction activities and help-seeking for depression. These beliefs are the basis for intervention design. Participants: A sample of 53 undergraduate students at a public university in the Midwest participated in this research during March 2016. Methods: An open-ended belief elicitation survey was administered online. Beliefs were identified through qualitative thematic analyses. Results: Exercise was students’ most preferred stress reduction activity. Beliefs about exercise emphasized physical benefits yet also not having time for exercise. Beliefs about help-seeking for depression emphasized treatment efficacy, support from others, stigma, and time constraints. Conclusions: Whereas beliefs about positive outcomes inform educational and motivational messages, beliefs about time constraints underscore the need to also consider structural factors that can help students find time to attend to their well-being.     

Business visits,knowledge diffusion and productivity

We investigate whether labor mobility can be a distinct source of growth by studying the productivity impact of business visits (BVs), vis-à-vis that of other well-known drivers of productivity enhancement. Our analysis uses an unbalanced panel—covering on average 16 sectors per year in ten countries during the period 1998–2011—which combines unique and novel data on BVs sourced from the US National Business Travel Association with Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) data on R&D and capital formation. We find that mobility through BVs is an effective mechanism to improve productivity, being about half that obtained by investing in R&D. This relevant finding invites viewing short-term mobility as a strategic mechanism and prospective policy tool to overcome productivity slowdowns and foster economic growth.     

Insolvency Proceedings and Workers’Rights: the Italian Case

ABSTRACT: In this paper the author analyses different types of insolvency proceedings in the context of the Italian legal system, focusing on the possible effects of bankruptcy law on employment relationships. The concept of‘privileged workers’claims is discussed, taking into account their rank of preference as stated by statutory law and according to the interpretations offered by jurisprudence. One section is expressly devoted to the recent legislation providing a Guarantee Fund for severance allowance claims in case of insolvency, but also in the event of mere nonpayment by the employer. After having covered the concept of 'super-privileged claims', the paper discusses more widely possible forms of protecting workers in a situation of company crisis and links between social legislation on the one hand, and bankruptcy law on the other. Finally, the author emphasizes the more effective protection now offered by the Italian legal system to workers’claims, although the trade unions have considerable difficulty in keeping the workforce united when insolvency proceedings are opened.