Escalation: The Role of Problem Recognition and Cognitive Bias

Escalation of commitment to a failing course of action is an enduring problem that remains central to the study of managerial behavior. Prior research suggests that escalation behavior results when decision makers choose to ignore negative feedback concerning the viability of a previously chosen course of action. Previous work has also suggested that certain cognitive biases might promote escalation behavior, but there has been little attempt to explore how biases other than framing affect escalation. In this article, we explore the extent to which decision makers actually perceive negative feedback as indicative of a problem and how this influences their decision to escalate. Although problem recognition and cognitive biases have been intensively studied individually, little is known about their effect on escalation behavior. In this research, we construct and test an escalation decision model that incorporates both problem recognition and two cognitive biases: selective perception and illusion of control. Our results revealed a significant inverse relationship between problem recognition and escalation. Furthermore, selective perception and illusion of control were found to significantly affect both problem recognition and escalation. The implications of these findings for research and practice are discussed. To improve problem recognition and reduce the incidence of escalation, practicing managers should implement modern project management practices that can help to identify and highlight potential problems while guarding against these two key cognitive biases that promote the behavior.     

Looming threats to the intimate bond in hospice care? Economic and organizational pressures in the case study of a hospice

Hospice organizations are assailed by stiff competition, ever-rising costs, limited funding, and policy changes. Do such pressures stifle the high quality of care these organizations strive to provide? As a case-in-point, we draw from the mid-1990s accounts of caregivers at a nonprofit hospice in a Midwestern city in the United States. We maintain that economic pressures drive organizational restructuring, which then weakens working conditions and, thereby, weakens the staff-client relationship. We discuss effects upon worker behaviors, the worker-client relationship, and client care. This ethnographic case study signals the need to closely examine the threats that current economic and organizational pressures in the United States may pose to the quality of hospice care.     

The Effect of Competition on Recovery Strategies

Manufacturers often face a choice of whether to recover the value in their end‐of‐life products through remanufacturing. In many cases, firms choose not to remanufacture, as they are (rightly) concerned that the remanufactured product will cannibalize sales of the higher‐margin new product. However, such a strategy may backfire for manufacturers operating in industries where their end‐of‐life products (cell phones, tires, computers, automotive parts, etc.) are attractive to third‐party remanufacturers, who may seriously cannibalize sales of the original manufacturer. In this paper, we develop models to support a manufacturer's recovery strategy in the face of a competitive threat on the remanufactured product market. We first analyze the competition between new and remanufactured products produced by a monopolist manufacturer and identify conditions under which the firm would choose not to remanufacture its products. We then characterize the potential profit loss due to external remanufacturing competition and analyze two entry‐deterrent strategies: remanufacturing and preemptive collection. We find that a firm may choose to remanufacture or preemptively collect its used products to deter entry, even when the firm would not have chosen to do so under a pure monopoly environment. Finally, we discuss conditions under which each strategy is more beneficial.     

Multiple-arm superiority and non-inferiority designs with various endpoints

Multiple-arm dose-response superiority trials are widely studied for continuous and binary endpoints, while non-inferiority designs have been studied recently in two-arm trials. In this paper, a unified asymptotic formulation of a sample size calculation for k-arm (k>0) trials with different endpoints (continuous, binary and survival endpoints) is derived for both superiority and non-inferiority designs. The proposed method covers the sample size calculation for single-arm and k-arm (k> or =2) designs with survival endpoints, which has not been covered in the statistic literature. A simple, closed form for power and sample size calculations is derived from a contrast test. Application examples are provided. The effect of the contrasts on the power is discussed, and a SAS program for sample size calculation is provided and ready to use.     

Is Time-Discounting Hyperbolic or Subadditive?

Subadditive time discounting means that discounting over a delay is greater when the delay is divided into subintervals than when it is left undivided. This may produce the most important result usually attributed to hyperbolic discounting: declining impatience, or the inverse relationship between the discount rate and the magnitude of the delay. Three choice experiments were conducted to test for subadditive discounting, and to determine whether it is sufficient to explain declining impatience. All three experiments showed strong evidence of subadditive discounting, but there was no evidence of declining impatience. I conclude by questioning whether hyperbolic discounting is a plausible account of time preference.     

Developing creative solutions to the problems of children and their families: communicative reason and the use of forum theatre

The paper represents a further development of work previously reported in this journal by Spratt & Houston (1999) and Spratt et al. (2000) . The authors have sought to develop ways of understanding current social work with children and families in line with the critical theory of Jurgen Habermas. This analysis has been complemented by an adoption of the methodology of the radical dramatist, Augusto Boal. In synthesizing Habermas's analysis of communicative discourses with the consciousness raising methodology of Boal, the authors have already demonstrated the effectiveness of this hybrid in problem‐solving exercises with social workers. The present paper reports on an application of this developing theory to practice, utilizing the centrepiece of Boal's method, forum theatre. A forum theatre project, concerned with the issue of bullying, is described and evaluated. It is argued that the project provides an exemplar of an innovative, democratizing and effective methodology that might profitably be utilized in social work with children and families. Finally, suggestions are made as to how these ideas could be developed in practice.     

Uncertainty and the Rise of the Work‐Family Dilemma

Existing research argues that women's wages, consumerism, and changing attitudes dismantled the male bread‐winner system. Families' economic need is dismissed with the suggestion that mothers' rhetoric of “need” was a smoke screen to defend against social stigma for working mothers. Drawing on biennial data from 1965 to 1987, I suggest that consumptive certainty of the 1950s and 1960s gave way to economic uncertainty in the 1970s and beyond. Economic uncertainty provided impetus, legitimacy, and justification for young families to adopt new work‐family arrangements. Hence, economic uncertainty is conceptualized as a real circumstance that substantiates families' reasonable perceptions of need.     

Breaking New Ground: Diverse Routes to College in Rural America*

Abstract Rural communities pose a challenge to status attainment models that explain children's educational attainment primarily in terms of the parents' education and professional status. Alongside the rural professional class are farmers of similar social status but with less education and other families that lack the status and resources of both professional‐class and farm families. The prolonged agricultural crisis in the American Midwest has turned rural youths toward college and has raised questions about the educational value of resources provided by farm parents and other rural parents. We classified youths from the Iowa Youth and Families Project into three SES groups: professional‐managerial, farm, and lower‐status. We compared these groups on resource levels and on the extent to which the resources predicted enrollment in a four‐year college one year after high school. Findings indicated three distinct routes to four‐year college. Professional‐managerial youths tended to follow the traditional path from parents' educational and other resources and support to their own academic involvement and aspirations for higher education. Successful farm youths, in lieu of parental educational advantages, drew on parents' community ties. Resourceful lower‐status youths, in the absence of family background advantages, generated educational attainment through early educational ambition and varied community and school involvements. Even relatively low levels of involvement were valuable to these youths' educational attainment.     

Age at Immigration and Scholastic Achievement in School‐Age Children: Is There A Vulnerable Age?1

This study investigates the relationship between age at immigration and educational achievement at age 14 among all the students (about 45,000) who immigrated to Israel between 1952 and 1970. The relationship is examined for verbal and nonverbal components of an achievement test, in subpopulations defined by gender and ethnic background (Western‐versus Eastern‐born children). The findings indicate a monotonic decrease in achievement as a function of immigration age starting at the age of 7. This decrease is considerably stronger for the Verbal subtest than for the Mathematical subtest, particularly in the Western group. These results refute the vulnerable age hypothesis: They support the view that the foreign language acquisition factor plays a central role in the relationship between age of immigration and scholastic achievement, and are consistent with the expectation of a monotonic decline in achievement as age of immigration increases (and length of residence decreases). Hence, when immigration involves the need to learn a new language, the drop in school achievement is likely to be particularly marked in subject areas requiring higher levels of mastery of the language of instruction. Finally, the results suggest that age 7 may represent a critical age for the scholastic achievement of immigrant students.     

Tracking the Sexual Behavior-Specific Effects of a Foster Family Treatment Program for Children with Serious Sexual Behavior Problems

Few treatment programs exist for very young children with serious sexual behavior problems. Fewer still have produced data relating to their effectiveness, and the sparse data that have emerged have focused on global social adjustment or improvement rather than on sexual behavior- specific changes. This study tracked both frequency of problem sexual behaviors and care giver estimates of the propensity to re-offend of six initial clients referred to a treatment-intensive foster care program for sexually reactive children and pre-adolescent sexual offenders. A simple pre-post (basepoint-treatment) design was used, and in-treatment data gathered over a two-year interval are presented. Initial results indicate that the problem sexual behaviors of most of these youthful clients were effectively and immediately suppressed in the context of their treatment intensive foster placements, but that the program's impact on the clients' propensity to re-offend given the opportunity—a crude measure of treatment internalization—was much less immediate, less pronounced, and less predictable across clients. Recommendations based on these data are offered concerning the viability of foster care intervention for sexualized and offending children, as well as optimal durations for such treatments. The strengths and weaknesses of the novel progress tracking method are discussed.