Interview with Howard E. Gruber

Howard E. Gruber is currently Adjunct Visiting Professor of Psychology at Teachers College, Columbia University, New York. He is one of the world's foremost experts on the creative process. Gruber was educated at Brooklyn College and at Cornell University, Ithaca, USA, where he received a Ph.D. in 1950 in psychology. His interest in the history of science, particularly in the work of Charles Darwin, led to several important discoveries about the creative process and to additional study of developmental psychology in Geneva, Switzerland with Jean Piaget.Gruber taught at Queens University (Canada) and at the University of Colorado, USA. He was Chair of the Psychology Department in the Graduate Faculty of the New School for Social Research, New York and Co-director at the Institute for Cognitive Studies of Rutgers University, USA. From 1983 to 1988 he was Professor of Genetic Psychology at the University of Geneva. He has been a Guggenheim Fellow and a Fellow of the Ford Foundation for Higher Education.Gruber's book, Darwin on Man: A Psychological Study of Scientific Creativity (2nd ed.) (1981) received the Phi Beta Kappa Award for books in science, was recognized by the New York Times Book Review as one of the seven best books of the year, and was nominated for the National Book Award. The Essential Piaget (1977/1995) (written and edited with Jacques Vonèche) is considered the most authoritative anthology of Piaget's work. Gruber's most recent book, co-authored and co-edited with Doris B. Wallace, is Creative People at Work: Twelve Cognitive Case Studies (1989).     

A bayesian test for a two-way contingency table using independence priors

One method of testing for independence in a two-way table is based on the Bayes factor, the ratio of the likelihoods under the independence hypothesis H and the alternative hypothesis H. The main difficulty in this approach is the specification of prior distributions on the composite hypotheses H and H. A new Bayesian test statistic is constructed by using a prior distribution on H that is concentrated about the “independence surface” H. Approximations are proposed which simplify the computation of the test statistic. The values of the Bayes factor are compared with values of statistics proposed by Gunel and Dickey (1974), Good and Crook (1987), and Spiegelhalter and Smith (1982) for a number of two-way tables. This investigation suggests a strong relationship between the new statistic and the p-value.     

Mortality of American Troops in the Iraq War

We estimate the death rate of United States troops deployed to Iraq from the beginning of the US invasion through 30 September 2006. Eighty percent of the deaths in Iraq were combat‐related. The death rate in Iraq is lower than that of the civilian population of the United States but substantially higher than that of young adults. It is much lower than the death rate of US troops in Vietnam, in part because a much smaller fraction die among those wounded in Iraq. We also estimate relative mortality levels for US troops according to numerous demographic variables through 30 November 2006. The risk of death in Iraq per deployment is shown to be highest for Marines; Naval and Air Force personnel in Iraq have lower death rates than the civilian population of comparable age. Other categories with above‐average mortality in Iraq are enlisted troops, males, younger persons, and Hispanics.     

Kurtosis and spread

An increase in kurtosis is achieved through the location- and scale-free movement of probability mass from the “shoulders” of a distribution into its centre and tails. We introduce a coherent structure of ordering and measures, requiring no symmetry assumption, that represent different formalizations of this movement. For this purpose spread functions and spread-spread plots are defined. The orderings impose growth patterns on the spread-spread plot of the distributions involved, and the weakest involve both a specific scale-matching technique and placement of “shoulders”. The role of existing kurtosis orderings and measures in this general context is identified and examples discussed throughout.     

The impact of involuntary job loss on those disabled by society: a pilot study to encourage effective participation

Over half of the people who become disabled whilst employed are thought to be pressured into leaving their job. This study investigates the experience of involuntary retirement/redundancy due to disability. Three researchers who had all experienced such involuntary job loss were trained to conduct the research. Semi-structured interviews were designed and conducted by disabled researchers. The training of the researchers enabled them to successfully conduct a research project. The results of the project show the impact of involuntary job loss due to disability to be considerable. This study would suggest that government reforms to create new opportunities for disabled people of a working age are well overdue. Although there were some problems experienced with the amount of training required and the lack of objectivity, training disabled researchers to conduct research proved to be a valuable experience for both the researchers and the facilitators.     

Privatization—A cure for all ills?

Before a troubled State-owned company can be privatized, the management dimension must be examined. The privatization strategy must be closely linked with the overall business strategy to ensure that the opportunities afforded by the operation provide for long-term profit enhancement. The logic behind the state-owned enterprise is described and the objectives of privatization, the pros and cons, are analysed.