From armed group to movement: armed struggle and movement formation in Northern Ireland and the Basque Country

In recent decades, social movement scholars have expanded our understanding of ‘terrorism’ by analyzing a particular trajectory, movement to armed group, whereby movement demobilization spurs armed struggle. This article analyzes an alternative trajectory: armed group to movement. Once armed struggle’s limitations become apparent, armed groups often adopt an attritional military strategy suited to their capacities. To securely wage an attritional campaign, groups disembed through the adoption of insular structures, removing them from their milieux and from recruits and resources needed for organizational reproduction. To offset this, armed groups reembed through the development of politico-military movement structures: forming allied aboveground movement organizations; coordinating armed and unarmed activism; and creating a ‘movement’ identity. This offsets disembedding in three ways. First, collective action augments armed groups’ violence by expanding the struggle into new domains. Second, mobilized support provides armed groups political legitimacy, countering the ‘terrorist’ label. Third, aboveground movement organizations assist in recruitment, alliance-formation, public communication, and mobilization, facilitating armed groups’ organizational reproduction. This paper investigates the strategic decision to adopt movement structures by analyzing documents produced by militants linked to the IRA and to rival ETAs, ETA Politico-Military and ETA Military, allowing for the exploration of different aspects of the decision to adopt movement structures. From Irish republican texts, insights into the basic benefits of movement development are gleaned. Basque separatist documents, on the other hand, provide perspectives on the nature of interorganizational centralization and coordination within politico-military movements.     

The dynamics of capital accumulation in the US: simulations after piketty

We develop a dynamic model where a competitive firm uses labor and capital, with market clearing rates of return. Individuals are heterogeneous in skills, with an endowment in capital/wealth increasing in skill. Individuals aspire to a socially determined consumption level, with a constant marginal propensity to consume out of income above this level. We also study three variants of the model: one with a higher rate of return for large capitals than for smaller ones, one with a capital levy financing a lump sum transfer, and one with social mobility. We calibrate the model to the US economy and obtain that a steady state exists in all variants, and we obtain convergence to the steady state from the 2012 US wealth distribution. The reduction in the level of the aspirational consumption level is the only way to create wealth for the bottom half of the distribution.     

ON THE USE OF VERBAL PROTOCOLS IN CONJOINT ANALYSIS STUDIES

A recent study by Olshavsky and Acito helped gain insight into (a) the decision process used by respondents when asked to do a conjoint task, (b) the predictive validity of conjoint models compared to models derived from verbal protocols, and (c) the reasons for prediction errors. In this article, the author argues that the Olshavsky and Acito results do not lead one to believe that the compensatory conjoint models can be potentially more misleading than models that try to represent more accurately the underlying evaluation process with noncompensatory and compensatory rules. Hence, it does not seem necessary to try to identify noncompensatory rules in a conjoint study.     

On the dynamic measurement of economic openness

The empirical relationship between economic openness and economic performance is much debated in the economic literature. No definitive conclusions seem to be reached yet, part of the problem being the very measurement of economic openness of a national economy. In their article in the Journal of Policy Modeling, Ruíz Estrada & Yap (2006) propose a new method to measure economic openness and to empirically assess the openness–growth nexus as a new tool for policy-makers: the Openness Growth Monitoring Model (OGM-Model). The authors claim: (i) that their method is different from and more flexible than existing empirical methods, (ii) that higher levels of openness do not lead to income growth, and (iii) that customs unions perform better than free trade areas. This short article challenges the three claims of the authors.     

Riemann sums for MCMC estimation and convergence monitoring

This paper develops an extension of the Riemann sum techniques of Philippe (J. Statist. Comput. Simul. 59: 295–314) in the setup of MCMC algorithms. It shows that these techniques apply equally well to the output of these algorithms, with similar speeds of convergence which improve upon the regular estimator. The restriction on the dimension associated with Riemann sums can furthermore be overcome by Rao–Blackwellization methods. This approach can also be used as a control variate technique in convergence assessment of MCMC algorithms, either by comparing the values of alternative versions of Riemann sums, which estimate the same quantity, or by using genuine control variate, that is, functions with known expectations, which are available in full generality for constants and scores.     

A Quality-of-Play Model of a Professional Sports League

Assuming that consumers value both the absolute and relative quality of play, I compare the choice of ticket prices, team qualities, and number of games played in a noncooperative outcome versus that chosen by a social planner. I find that the nature of consumer preferences regarding the quality of play determines whether the demand for talented players are strategic complements or substitutes. A strong preference by fans for a superior team makes players strategic substitutes, and a concern for a high quality of play and competitive balance make players strategic complements. Moreover, when fans only value the relative quality of play, there is an overemployment of talented players in the noncooperative outcome versus the socially optimal outcome; when they only value the absolute quality of play then there is an underemployment of talented players in the noncooperative outcome.     

Revealing age-specific past and future unrelated costs of pneumococcal infections by flexible generalized estimating equations

We aimed to study the excess health-care expenditures for persons with a known positive isolate of Streptococcus pneumoniae. The data set was compiled by linking the database of the largest Belgian Sickness Fund with data obtained from laboratories reporting pneumococcal isolates. We analyzed the age-specific per-patient cumulative costs over time, using generalized estimating equations (GEEs). The mean structure was described by fractional polynomials. The quasi-likelihood under the independence model criterion was used to compare different correlation structures. We show for all age groups that the health-care costs incurred by diagnosed pneumococcal patients are significantly larger than those incurred by undiagnosed matched persons. This is not only the case at the time of diagnosis but also long before and after the time of diagnosis. These findings can be informative for the current debate on unrelated costs in health economic evaluation, and GEEs could be used to estimate these costs for other diseases. Finally, these results can be used to inform policy on the expected budget impact of preventing pneumococcal infections.     

Polynomial structures in rank statistics distributions

This paper deals with the classical problem of how to evaluate the joint rank statistics distributions for two independent i.i.d. samples from a common continuous distribution. It is pointed that these distributions rely on an underlying polynomial structure of negative binomial type. That property is exploited to obtain, in a systematic and unified way, closed forms and simple recursions, some well established, for computing the joint tail and rectangular probabilities of interest.     

A CUSUM control chart for monitoring the variance when parameters are estimated

CUSUM control chart has been widely used for monitoring the process variance. It is usually used assuming that the nominal process variance is known. However, several researchers have shown that the ability of control charts to signal when a process is out of control is seriously affected unless process parameters are estimated from a large in-control Phase I data set. In this paper we derive the run length properties of a CUSUM chart for monitoring dispersion with estimated process variance and we evaluate the performance of this chart by comparing it with the same chart but with assumed known process parameters.