Contagious egg-distribution on host pods and avoidance of pods received eggs in a wild bruchidKytorhinus sharpianus

Summary The present study investigated the way a wild bruchid,Kytorhinus sharpianus, distributes its eggs on host pods. First, we counted the number of eggs per pod on the host plant (Sophola flavescens) in the field. The egg-distributions by the overwintered-generation adults in July and by the second-generation adults in mid October did not deviate from Poisson distribution because of small numbers of eggs laid. However, the egg-distribution in late August when many first-generation adults emerged was significantly contagious. The deposition of eggs was determined for three types of pods: (A) clean pods, (B) pods with eggs, and (C) those which eggs had been laid on but were removed from later. The numbers of eggs laid newly on three types of pods were significantly different; A>C>B, suggesting that an oviposition marker pheromone (O.M.P.) caused females to avoid pods on which eggs were deposited. Egg-shells reinforced that response. Monte Carlo simulations for the egg-distribution on pods predicted that even if females avoid pods with heavy egg-load through O.M.P., the egg-distribution becomes contagious when there is a large heterogeneity in quality of the pods.     

Population dynamics ofMalacosoma neustria testacea (Lepidoptera: Lasiocampidae): Stabilizing process in a field population

Summary Stabilizing mechanism in population ofMalacosoma neustria testacea was investigated in a central part of Japan based on eight year survey. Population fluctuation in each developmental stage in the experimental field was rather small, i.e., 5.9 times in egg and 85.0 times in female adult. Pupal weight negatively correlated with the densities of 5th instar larvae and prepupae (cocoons) and correlation coefficient was highly significant in females. Population density was stabilized by density-dependent dispersal of female moths in preovipositional period. Comparison between fecundity of emerged moths and that of actually oviposited ones in the experimental field suggested that density-dependent dispersal took place as the result of density-dependent size variation, i.e., small-sized female months have higher flying ability. This hypothesis was supported by the experiment in which flying ability of newly emerged female moth was measured. Similar stabilizing mechanism is expected to occur in semelparous or pro-ovigenic insects. Contribution Ser. A, No. 64 from Fruit Tree Research Station, Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, Japan     

Bivariate Negative Binomial Generalized Linear Models for Environmental Count Data

We propose a new bivariate negative binomial model with constant correlation structure, which was derived from a contagious bivariate distribution of two independent Poisson mass functions, by mixing the proposed bivariate gamma type density with constantly correlated covariance structure (Iwasaki & Tsubaki, 2005), which satisfies the integrability condition of McCullagh & Nelder (1989, p. 334). The proposed bivariate gamma type density comes from a natural exponential family. Joe (1997) points out the necessity of a multivariate gamma distribution to derive a multivariate distribution with negative binomial margins, and the luck of a convenient form of multivariate gamma distribution to get a model with greater flexibility in a dependent structure with indices of dispersion. In this paper we first derive a new bivariate negative binomial distribution as well as the first two cumulants, and, secondly, formulate bivariate generalized linear models with a constantly correlated negative binomial covariance structure in addition to the moment estimator of the components of the matrix. We finally fit the bivariate negative binomial models to two correlated environmental data sets.     

A bivariate generalized linear model with an application to meteorological data analysis

A bivariate generalized linear model is developed as a mixture distribution with one component of the mixture being discrete with probability mass only at the origin. The use of the proposed model is illustrated by analyzing local area meteorological measurements with constant correlation structure that incorporates predictor variables. The Monte Carlo study is performed to evaluate the inferential efficiency of model parameters for two types of true models. These results suggest that the estimates of regression parameters are consistent and the efficiency of the inference increases for the proposed model for ρ≥0.50 especially in larger samples. As an illustration of a bivariate generalized linear model, we analyze a precipitation monitoring data of adjacent local stations for Tokyo and Yokohama.