Unemployment and Business Cycles

We develop and estimate a general equilibrium search and matching model that accounts for key business cycle properties of macroeconomic aggregates, including labor market variables. In sharp contrast to leading New Keynesian models, we do not impose wage inertia. Instead we derive wage inertia from our specification of how firms and workers negotiate wages. Our model outperforms a variant of the standard New Keynesian Calvo sticky wage model. According to our estimated model, there is a critical interaction between the degree of price stickiness, monetary policy, and the duration of an increase in unemployment benefits.     

Extreme value index estimator using maximum likelihood and moment estimation

ABSTRACT

When a distribution function is in the max domain of attraction of an extreme value distribution, its tail can be well approximated by a generalized Pareto distribution. Based on this fact we use a moment estimation idea to propose an adapted maximum likelihood estimator for the extreme value index, which can be understood as a combination of the maximum likelihood estimation and moment estimation. Under certain regularity conditions, we derive the asymptotic normality of the new estimator and investigate its finite sample behavior by comparing with several classical or competitive estimators. A simulation study shows that the new estimator is competitive with other estimators in view of average bias, average MSE, and coefficient of variance of the new device for the optimal selection of the threshold.     

International Migration and City Growth in the Global South: An Analysis of IPUMS Data for Seven Countries, 1992–2013

Evidence on the demographic components of city growth in the global South is scarce, and the role played by international migration is neglected. We analyze the importance of recent international migration in cities, compare it with that of internal movements, and evaluate the growth contribution across national contexts and the urban hierarchy. Combining individual-level census data and geographic master files of metropolitan areas with indirect demographic estimation techniques, we cover 377 cities in seven countries. It is found that, in almost one third of cities, population change and replacement has been mainly determined by migration. The international component was larger than the internal one in more than half of cities. Whereas internal migration tends to decrease with rising city size, international movements tend to increase. Positive net international migration substitutes for the net losses from domestic movements in large cities, but complements the gains in intermediate-sized cities.     

The Globalization of Migration: Has the World Become More Migratory?

Although it is commonly believed that the volume, diversity, geographical scope, and overall complexity of international migration have increased as part of globalization processes, this idea has remained largely untested. This article analyzes shifts in global migration patterns between 1960 and 2000 using indices that simultaneously capture changes in the spread, distance, and intensity of migration. While the results challenge the idea that there has been a global increase in volume, diversity, and geographical scope of migration, main migratory shifts have been directional. Migration has globalized from a destination country perspective but hardly from an origin country perspective, with migrants from an increasingly diverse array of non‐European‐origin countries concentrating in a shrinking pool of prime destination countries. The global migration map has thus become more skewed. Rather than refuting the globalization of migration hypothesis, this seems to reflect the asymmetric nature of globalization processes in general.     

Multiscale change point detection for dependent data

In this article we study the theoretical properties of the simultaneous multiscale change point estimator (SMUCE) in piecewise-constant signal models with dependent error processes. Empirical studies suggest that in this case the change point estimate is inconsistent, but it is not known if alternatives suggested in the literature for correlated data are consistent. We propose a modification of SMUCE scaling the basic statistic by the long run variance of the error process, which is estimated by a difference-type variance estimator calculated from local means from different blocks. For this modification we prove model consistency for physical-dependent error processes and illustrate the finite sample performance by means of a simulation study.     

How do study satisfaction and academic performance interrelate? An investigation with students of Social Work programs

An investigation of study satisfaction and academic performance in the study of Social Work is reported (N=514). The results show that satisfaction (a scale based on 13 items) and performance (undergraduate course marks) hardly correlate with each other (r=?0.05) and are influenced by different variables. Whereas study satisfaction is determined by ‘noncognitive’ factors such as motivation and course organization, academic performance is influenced by ‘cognitive' factors such as final school grade and students' learning behavior. Satisfied and/or successful students are more motivated to complete their course of study within the regular period and to work later as social workers. Vocational training or a university degree before studying Social Work does not affect satisfaction or performance. The findings are discussed in relation to optimal study management and selection criteria.     

Deservingness put into practice: Constructing the (un)deservingness of migrants in four European countries

The increased comparative research on perceptions of public welfare deservingness studies the extent to which different subgroups of citizens are deemed worthy or unworthy of receiving help from the welfare state. The concept of deservingness criteria plays a crucial role in this research, as it theorizes a universal heuristic that citizens apply to rank people in terms of their welfare deservingness. Due to the mainly quantitative nature of the research and despite the indisputable progress it has made, the subjective existence and actual application of these deservingness criteria remain a bit of a black box. What criteria of deservingness do citizens actually apply, and how do they apply them? This article opens the black box of welfare deservingness and sheds light on the nature and practice of deservingness criteria. Empirically, the paper explores how the deservingness of immigrants is discussed and established within 20 focus groups conducted in Slovenia, Denmark, UK, and Norway in 2016 with a total of 160 participants. All 20 focus groups discussed the welfare deservingness of immigrants based on similar vignette stimuli. Our analysis shows that (1) deservingness criteria are used both to construct images of target groups and as normative yardsticks; (2) deservingness criteria do not work independently of each other, but rather co-function in specific hybridized discourses; and (3) the moral logic of deservingness is supplemented by alternative moral logics, at least in the case of migrants.     

All risk-taking is not the same: examining the competing effects of firm risk-taking with meta-analysis

Although researchers have vigorously studied organizational risk-taking for over 35 years, relatively little emphasis has been placed on theoretically differentiating the unique relationships between the many risk-taking choices organizations make and firm risk or firm performance. In this research, we propose a new framework that builds from March’s exploration–exploitation model to argue that different risk-taking choices can have substantially different influences on firm outcomes. We use meta-analysis to examine the unique and at times competing effects of four of the most commonly studied risk-taking choices on firm risk and firm performance. Results from a meta-analysis of 257 unique studies (N = 499,808) demonstrate support for our proposed framework and cast significant doubt on the idea that commonly studied firm risk-taking choices theoretically aggregate into one overarching risk-taking construct.     

Visual Narrative and Temporal Relevance: Segueing Instant Replay into Live Broadcast TV

Professional production of live TV combines real‐time and recorded video into a single broadcast stream. In “live” TV, non‐live “instant replay” footage can help viewers to make sense of what has just happened. This article shows how multi‐person TV production teams assemble timely and relevant instant replays that can be seamlessly combined with real‐time footage during live broadcasts. Detailed interaction analysis demonstrates how this work is dependent on coordinated practices, and how team members achieve this by orienting to narrative concerns across multiple temporalities to produce topically useful instant replays, displaying clip relevance, and help segueing transitions between the ongoing action and replay. We conclude by examining the interrelationships between the sequential flow of visual content, the role of talk in mediating time‐shifted visual alignments, and how members make their work visible and accountable to one another and to their intended audience.