The Chinese Road in the Light of Historical Continuity

The Chinese road has deep historical roots. Its most striking feature is that it is marked by historical continuity rather than rupture, and the main force behind this continuity is its intrinsic dynamism and vitality. Unlike the paradigm of Eurocentrism or “Discovering History in China,” the comparative analytical paradigm discovers China through long-term comparisons with corresponding countries in the same time and space in an effort to find positive elements in the history of the Chinese road and to refute the long prevalent theory of Chinese stagnation. Seen over the course of world history, the impetus for the creation of the world’s most brilliant agrarian civilization was endogenous. This impetus was not a momentary “explosive force” but a sustainable institutional drive whose main constituents were the independent farming household, endogenous government capacity and adaptive national governance. In addition to the main theme of “permanent change,” Chinese development had a secondary theme of “cyclical change” which cannot be ignored. The roots of Chinese development are buried deep in the genes of this agrarian nation in the form of sticky institutions, bureaucratic inertia, arbitrary power, etc. Historical continuity provided a foundation for China’s creative revolution and development in modern times, ultimately laying down a socialist development road with Chinese characteristics, although this remains an unfinished relay process.     

Adaptive modeling of the human-environment relationship applied to estimation of the population carrying capacity in an earthquake zone

Natural catastrophes such as earthquakes can, in addition to causing loss of life, disrupt the urbanization process through the need for forced population redistribution and the modification of resource and environmental carrying capacity. The population carrying capacity (PCC) of an altered environment following an earthquake is a crucial determinant in the relocation of displaced persons. We use data adaptive methods to model the correlation between the physical environment and human population density in estimating PCC in areas affected by the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake. Comparing actual population distributions with ideal population distributions allows for the identification of villages where population exceeds PCC, or conversely, areas where the environment can support a higher population. Such a comparison can provide the basis for a relocation plan, a critical element of post-catastrophe policy-making.     

The effect of fast and slow decisions on risk taking

We experimentally compare fast and slow decisions in a series of experiments on financial risk taking in three countries involving over 1700 subjects. To manipulate fast and slow decisions, subjects were randomly allocated to responding within 7 seconds (time pressure) or waiting for at least 7 or 20 seconds (time delay) before responding. To control for different effects of time pressure and time delay on measurement noise, we estimate separate parameters for noise and risk preferences within a random utility framework. We find that time pressure increases risk aversion for gains and risk taking for losses compared to time delay, implying that time pressure increases the reflection effect of Prospect Theory. The results for gains are weaker and less robust than the results for losses. We find no significant difference between time pressure and time delay for loss aversion (tested in only one of the experiments). Time delay also leads to less measurement noise than time pressure and unconstrained decisions, and appears to be an effective way of decreasing noise in experiments.     

Let Me Go: The Influences of Crawling Experience and Temperament on the Development of Anger Expression

Infants’ emerging ability to move independently by crawling is associated with changes in multiple domains, including an increase in expressions of anger in situations that block infants’ goals, but it is unknown whether increased anger is specifically because of experience with being able to move autonomously or simply related to age. To examine the influence of locomotion on developmental change in anger, infants’ (N = 20) anger expressions during an arm restraint procedure were observed longitudinally at a precrawling baseline assessment and 2 and 6 weeks after the onset of crawling. Infant age at each crawling stage was unrelated to the frequency of anger expressed in response to arm restraint. At 6 weeks postcrawling onset, infants whose mothers rated them as temperamentally higher in distress to limitations, compared with those rated lower, showed a greater increase in the frequency of anger expressed during the arm restraint relative to earlier assessments and took longer to reduce the frequency of anger expressed when no longer restrained. Findings suggest that experience with autonomous crawling has an effect on anger expression, independent of age, and that a temperamental tendency to become distressed by limitations may exacerbate the effect of crawling on anger expression.     

State of the Art in Risk Analysis of Workforce Criticality Influencing Disaster Preparedness for Interdependent Systems

The objective of this article is to discuss a needed paradigm shift in disaster risk analysis to emphasize the role of the workforce in managing the recovery of interdependent infrastructure and economic systems. Much of the work that has been done on disaster risk analysis has focused primarily on preparedness and recovery strategies for disrupted infrastructure systems. The reliability of systems such as transportation, electric power, and telecommunications is crucial in sustaining business processes, supply chains, and regional livelihoods, as well as ensuring the availability of vital services in the aftermath of disasters. There has been a growing momentum in recognizing workforce criticality in the aftermath of disasters; nevertheless, significant gaps still remain in modeling, assessing, and managing workforce disruptions and their associated ripple effects to other interdependent systems. The workforce plays a pivotal role in ensuring that a disrupted region continues to function and subsequently recover from the adverse effects of disasters. With this in mind, this article presents a review of recent studies that have underscored the criticality of workforce sectors in formulating synergistic preparedness and recovery policies for interdependent infrastructure and regional economic systems.     

中国—东盟政治合作机制研究

本文根据中国—东盟区域合作发展的政治合作机制的概念及呈现的多维特性,运用政治合作的目标分解和构成要素,对政治合作机制进行综合的结构分析。通过利益泛化(低度)、制度分化(中度)和价值固化(深度)生成的三个阶段性使命目标(和睦共享、和平共处与和谐共荣)合作过程的剖析,对中国—东盟政治合作机制建设的结构性问题进行探讨,以此助推区域政治合作机制的改进和优化。     

The Strategic Management of Innovation: A Systematic Review and Paths for Future Research

Strategic management scholars have long emphasized the importance of innovation for a firm's competitive advantage and performance. However, the current state of knowledge about the strategic management of innovation is characterized by conflicting theoretical predictions, persisting knowledge gaps and theoretical inconsistencies. Adopting a ‘systematic’ approach to reviewing the literature, this paper combines different quantitative methods – co‐word analysis, cluster analysis and frequency analysis – to review 342 articles on the strategic management of innovation published in seven journals from 1992 to 2010. On the basis of these analyses, suggestions are developed for future research which could help to promote future theory development and provide relevant material for policy decisions that managers and executives have to make when they manage innovation.     

A modified LGB method for detecting significant effects based on a half-normal probability plot

In analyzing data from unreplicated factorial designs, the half-normal probability plot is commonly used to screen for the ‘vital few’ effects. Recently, many formal methods have been proposed to overcome the subjectivity of this plot. Lawson (1998) (hereafter denoted as LGB) suggested a hybrid method based on the half-normal probability plot, which is a blend of Lenth (1989) and Loh (1992) method. The method consists of fitting a simple least squares line to the inliers, which are determined by the Lenth method. The effects exceeding the prediction limits based on the fitted line are candidates for the vital few effects. To improve the accuracy of partitioning the effects into inliers and outliers, we propose a modified LGB method (hereafter denoted as the Mod_LGB method), in which more outliers can be classified by using both the Carling’s modification of the box plot (Carling, 2000) and Lenth method. If no outlier exists or there is a wide range in the inliers as determined by the Lenth method, more outliers can be found by the Carling method. A simulation study is conducted in unreplicated $2^4$ designs with the number of active effects ranging from 1 to 6 to compare the efficiency of the Lenth method, original LGB methods, and the proposed modified version of the LGB method.     

Quality self-control and co-supervision mechanism of construction agent in public investment project in China

Public investment project (PIP) plays an important role in the China economy. In order to improve the project management performance of public projects, the government is searching for a scientific system to build a construction management supervision mode. This paper introduces the policy background and connotation of Agent Construction System (ACS). As a public investment construction management model, ACS, is gradually being incorporated into the legal framework, it is necessary to improve the construction agent supervision mechanism. This article analyzes the supervision mechanism of construction agent quality management under the principle of two-stage agent mode and establishes an agent quality self-control system and a government co-supervision system. These systems take the contract management as the core and the project quality objective as the guidance. These systems also consist of a two-dimensional framework of vertical self-control and horizontal supervision, which form a quality supervision mechanism. Based on Rough Set theory, the article proposes the idea of building an agent quality self-control and government co-supervision model, and illustrates it with a flow chart for building the model, which paves the way of quantitative research for the future.     

Backward capacity-filtering for electronics Fabs

In electronics Fabs such as semiconductor Fabs and liquid crystal display (LCD) Fabs, which are capital-intensive, finite-capacity planning is critical to achieving full-capacity production and on-time production. However, existing finite-capacity planning methods do not adequately reflect the actual capacity profiles of an electronics Fab. In this paper, we propose a new Fab-level capacity-filtering procedure to generate finite-capacity plan: a backward capacity-filtering procedure for generating finite-capacity release plan. When developing the Fab-level filtering procedures, we use stage-level capacity-filtering algorithms as a key building block. In this study, we enhance the previous capacity-filtering algorithms proposed by one of the authors in order to facilitate the practical requirements of electronics Fabs. We apply the proposed capacity-filtering method to a modern LCD–TFT Fab in Korea. Performance analyses demonstrate that the proposed method is superior to existing methods.