Using Analysis of Variance and Factor Analysis for the Reduction of High Dimensional Variation in Time Series of Energy Consumption

Summary: In this paper the complexity of high dimensional data with cyclical variation is reduced using analysis of variance and factor analysis. It is shown that the prediction of a small number of main cyclical factors is more useful than forecasting all the time-points separately as it is usually done by seasonal time series models. To give an example for this approach we analyze the electricity demand per quarter of an hour of industrial customers in Germany. The necessity of such predictions results from the liberalization of the German electricity market in 1998 due to legal requirements of the EC in 1996.     

Lean-healthcare approach to reduce costs in a sterilization plant based on surgical tray rationalization

Abstract

Sterilization plants process all reusable materials used in hospitals during different stages of healthcare provision. Most items sterilized come from the surgical theater in the form of individual instruments, linen and surgical trays. Reducing the number of instruments in trays impacts on the performance of the sterilization process. Here, we propose a three-phase method, based on lean healthcare principles, cluster analysis and kaizen groups of experts to rationalize surgical trays, reducing sterilization processing costs. We innovate by proposing a strategy to approach tray rationalization prioritizing surgical specialties that are both complex and frequent, and by using group technology to cluster surgical trays expediting expert analyses carried out by kaizen groups. Our propositions were tested in a high complexity, tertiary care hospital, covering 12 surgical specialties, reducing the number of instruments by average 9.75%, and the time-to-assemble trays by average 9.68%, obtaining annual savings of US$285.756,00 in sterilization processing costs.     

Statistical data integration using multilevel models to predict employee compensation

This article considers the case where two surveys collect data on a common variable, with one survey being much smaller than the other. The smaller survey collects data on an additional variable of interest, related to the common variable collected in the two surveys, and out-of-scope with respect to the larger survey. Estimation of the two related variables is of interest at domains defined at a granular level. We propose a multilevel model for integrating data from the two surveys, by reconciling survey estimates available for the common variable, accounting for the relationship between the two variables, and expanding estimation for the other variable, for all the domains of interest. The model is specified as a hierarchical Bayes model for domain-level survey data, and posterior distributions are constructed for the two variables of interest. A synthetic estimation approach is considered as an alternative to the hierarchical modelling approach. The methodology is applied to wage and benefits estimation using data from the National Compensation Survey and the Occupational Employment Statistics Survey, available from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Department of Labor, United States.     

The “ugly” face of social investment? The politics of childcare in Central and Eastern Europe

In this article, we aim to understand the development dynamics of a specific area of social investment (SI), that is, childcare policies, in the context of postcommunist politics and the recent right-wing turn that took place in the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland. This article identifies varieties of channels for promoting SI. First, in taking the perspective of the “mixed economy of welfare,” we argue that attempts made to introduce elements of SI to the childcare policies involved various leading roles available for either the private sector or state/public domain. Second, it is important to distinguish between implicit/unintended and explicit/intended projects both in relation to cases in which SI strategy is applied via marketization/privatization and when it involves a government-led project. Third, we take into account the politics of SI implementation that might involve applying certain principles central to policy concepts (such as “investment”) in justifying policy instruments incompatible with original ideas. Although arguments about SI have been extensively used by Eastern European leaders, their goal has been to justify welfare reforms that were implicitly or explicitly directed towards the middle class while excluding the “nondeserving” often based on ethnic identity. We characterize Poland as a case of “implicit marketization,” the Czech Republic as a case of “explicit privatization,” and the Hungarian version of SI as a case of “explicit public dualization.” In this, we show that in some cases, the implementation of SI approaches by right-wing populist parties might rear its “ugly” head.     

Productive organizational energy mediates the impact of organizational structure on absorptive capacity

The ability of an organization to cope with radical technological change is regarded to be heavily dependent on its ability to absorb and apply knowledge from its environment. This study investigates the role of organizational structure in driving absorptive capacity and uncovers the role of the emergent phenomenon of organizational energy as the enabler of this relationship. A field study was conducted among firms that are challenged by the disruptive nature of Cloud computing. Our results show that organizational design affects the degree of mobilization of an organization's affective, cognitive and behavioral resources, which in turn influence the effectiveness of learning processes related to the absorption and exchange of knowledge within the organization. Furthermore, they reveal the positive relationship between the enactment of absorptive capacity and the successful adoption of Cloud technology for incumbent firms. The findings contribute to our understanding of the micro-foundations of absorptive capacity and how positive organizational phenomena facilitate effective adoption and implementation of emerging technologies.     

Central exit examinations increase performance... but take the fun out of mathematics

We study the causal effect of state-mandated (central) exit examinations (CEEs) on student performance in Germany and find a small positive effect. We also investigate what actually drives this effect. We find that the teachers’ main reaction to CEEs is to increase the amount of homework and to check and discuss homework more often. Students report increased learning pressure, which has sizeable negative effects on student attitudes toward learning. Students who take central exit exams in mathematics like mathematics less, think it is less easy, and are more likely to find it boring.     

Too much information? Predictors of information overload in the context of online news exposure

As the Internet provides massive amounts of heterogeneous information, people may perceive this medium as challenging. The difficulty to evaluate and select relevant information increases as more and more diverse sources and content are available. Information overload (IO) may be the consequence. The research presented here gives a first comprehensive overview of possible indicators for IO in the context of online news exposure. Based on an online survey (N=419), we found that younger people with less information-seeking self-efficacy were more susceptible to experience IO. Additionally, we identified motivations for media consumption and information retrieval strategies in the Internet that imply IO. With our results, we contribute to a further understanding of IO and provide an important basis for future research needed to face the challenges resulting from the rising media diversity.     

An association between bone mineral density and anabolic hormones in middle-aged and elderly men with prediabetes

Introduction: Prediabetes (PD) leads to reduced testosterone (T) in males, but the association between the anabolic hormones and bone mineral density (BMD) remains unknown.

Objectives: We investigated an association between the anabolic hormones and BMD in middle-aged and elderly men with PD.

Methods: We investigated 84 prediabetic and 56 control men. Total T (TT), calculated free T (cFT), and dehydroepiandrosterone sulfate (DHEAS) were measured, and BMD was assessed using DXA methods.

Results: Patients with PD had lower TT (p?p?<?.005), and DHEAS (p?<?.02) than control group. BMD values of the lower lumbar spine (p?<?.02) and total body (p?<?.05) in prediabetic men were lower than in control group. Lumbar spine BMD correlated with TT (r?=?0.376), cFT (r?=?0.235), and HbA1c (r?=??0.368); femoral neck BMD correlated with TT (r?=?0.412) and cFT (r?=?0.421). The high lumbar spine and femur neck BMD was associated with high TT, cFT, and low HbA1c, while the high total body BMD with high TT, cFT, and low HbA1c.

Conclusion: The anabolic hormones significantly affect BMD in male with PD, and screening for low BMD is necessary in these patients.     

Working in Multidisciplinary Community Mental Health Teams: The Impact on Social Workers and Health Professionals of Integrated Mental Health Care

Correspondence to Professor John Carpenter, Centre for Applied Social Studies, University of Durham, Elvet Riverside II, Durham DH1 3JT, UK. E-mail: J.S.W.Carpenter{at}dur.ac.uk Summary This study investigated the relationships between the organizationof community mental health services and professional and teamidentification, team functioning and the psychological well-beingand job satisfaction of staff working in multidisciplinary communitymental health teams (CMHTs). Staff in four districts in theNorth of England completed anonymous questionnaires on two occasions,twelve months apart. There were systematic differences in teamfunctioning, favouring teams in districts where mental healthand social care services were integrated. However, service organizationhad no evident impact on professional or team identificationor on outcomes for staff in terms of stress or job satisfaction.There were differences between social workers (n = 31) and healthservice professionals (n = 82) indicating that social workershad poorer perceptions of team functioning and experienced higherlevels of role conflict. Controlling for other factors includingthe study districts, role conflict was a significant predictorof stress and of job dissatisfaction, while role clarity promotedjob satisfaction. We conclude that support and supervision aimedat ensuring a social work contribution to multidisciplinaryworking should be provided in the course of establishing CMHTsand integrated health and social care services.