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101.
This paper presents for the four main EC countries forecasting models of aggregate demand components based on various tendency surveys. Its objective is to work out practical models both in terms of data requirement and computation as the models are to be used regularly for very short-term forecasting. In spite of a great simplicity of the specifications, the regression results prove quite acceptable. Forecasting exercises compare reasonably well with the results of more elaborate procedures. 相似文献
102.
Helena Kotthaus Ingo Korb Michel Lang Bernd Bischl Jörg Rahnenführer Peter Marwedel 《Journal of Statistical Computation and Simulation》2015,85(1):14-29
R is a multi-paradigm language with a dynamic type system, different object systems and functional characteristics. These characteristics support the development of statistical algorithms at a high level of abstraction. Although R is commonly used in the statistics domain a big disadvantage are its runtime problems when handling computation-intensive algorithms. Especially in the domain of machine learning the execution of pure R programs is often unacceptably slow. Our long-term goal is to resolve these issues and in this contribution we used the traceR tool to analyse the bottlenecks arising in this domain. Here we measured the runtime and overall memory consumption on a well-defined set of classical machine learning applications and gained detailed insights into the performance issues of these programs. 相似文献
103.
104.
Véronique Lamarche Mara Brendgen Michel Boivin Frank Vitaro Daniel Pérusse Ginette Dionne 《Social Development》2006,15(3):373-393
Based on the notion that friendship may serve an important protective function against peer victimization, this study examined the moderating effect of reciprocal friends' prosociality on the link between a child's reactive aggression and victimization. The study also investigated whether a similar moderating effect could be found with respect to sibling's prosociality, given that sibling relationships have been found to provide social benefits comparable to friendships. These questions were addressed using a sample of 246 six‐year‐old twin pairs (246 boys and 246 girls). The results showed that a child's own reactive aggression uniquely contributed to the risk of victimization for both boys and girls. The link between reactive aggression and victimization was, however, moderated by reciprocal friends' prosocial behavior and siblings' prosocial behavior, respectively. The results are discussed in terms of their theoretical and prevention‐related implications for children at risk for peer victimization. 相似文献
105.
In a single index Poisson regression model with unknown link function, the index parameter can be root- n consistently estimated by the method of pseudo maximum likelihood. In this paper, we study, by simulation arguments, the practical validity of the asymptotic behaviour of the pseudo maximum likelihood index estimator and of some associated cross-validation bandwidths. A robust practical rule for implementing the pseudo maximum likelihood estimation method is suggested, which uses the bootstrap for estimating the variance of the index estimator and a variant of bagging for numerically stabilizing its variance. Our method gives reasonable results even for moderate sized samples; thus, it can be used for doing statistical inference in practical situations. The procedure is illustrated through a real data example. 相似文献
106.
Michel ChauvièreMichel Messu 《Sociologie du Travail》2003,45(3):327-342
Despite its many meanings, “solidarity” has once again become current in French to describe macro as well as microsocial relations. Social relations in and outside the family have not always been understood as instances of solidarity. But is this solidarity the same as the one established by the welfare state? Forms of family solidarity that have risen in esteem over the past two decades are “deconstructed”. The conditions for family solidarity are examined; and conceptual paradoxes, described. This approach suggests that family solidarity, as this concept is normally used, mixes together several systems of justice that should be clearly distinguished, especially if we want to put this phrase to a judicious social use. 相似文献
107.
108.
Michel J. Vanderhart 《Economic inquiry》2003,41(2):250-263
This article presents evidence of a negative and significant relationship between the level of Social Security wealth and the labor force participation of older men. The empirical analysis utilizes a panel data set containing participation, wage, and Social Security information for cohorts defined by birth year and educational attainment from 1967 to 1996. Increases in Social Security wealth levels are found capable of explaining most of the observed decline in labor force participation rates of older men since 1967. 相似文献
109.
110.
The exposure of employees of different contracting firms to chemical pollutants was assessed during the five-week biennial maintenance shut-down of an isocyanate (TDI) synthesis plant. This assessment was mainly based on personal sampling, but work-related constraints occasionally required that area samples be used instead. Many tasks were carried out during the shut-down procedure (dismantling of reactors, installation of insulation, refection of kilns, cleaning, painting, electricity, etc.), thereby causing the employees of the contracting firms to be exposed to different kinds of pollutants, including products used or manufactured in the process (solvents, TDI and its synthesis intermediates), and products specific to the contractors' activity (welding fumes, crystalline silica, mineral fibers of heat insulation). The highest level of exposure (mainly to TDI) was found for the mechanical engineering activities undertaken during the dismantling of reactors and for cleaning activities. It was demonstrated that there was much variability in day-to-day exposure levels, and occasionally in the exposure levels encountered during a given shift. Cases of concomitant exposure to TDI (mainly short-term exposures) and other pollutants due to simultaneous activities from different tasks in the same area (co-activity) were also observed. Both the need for, and limitations of personal protective equipment (mainly respiratory) are stressed. Special emphasis is put on the responsibility of the owner of the facilities in helping the contractors in the organization of a health and safety policy. 相似文献