Social choice,optimal inference and figure skating

We approach the social choice problem as one of optimal statistical inference. If individual voters or judges observe the true order on a set of alternatives with error, then it is possible to use the set of individual rankings to make probability statements about the correct social order. Given the posterior distribution for orders and a suitably chosen loss function, an optimal order is one that minimises expected posterior loss. The paper develops a statistical model describing the behaviour of judges, and discusses Markov chain Monte Carlo estimation. We also discuss criteria for choosing the appropriate loss functions. We apply our methods to a well-known problem: determining the correct ranking for figure skaters competing at the Olympic Games.     

Learning from experience or learning from others?: Inferring informal training from a human capital earnings function with matched employer–employee data

A model of informal training which combines learning from own experience and learning from others is proposed in this paper. It yields a closed-form solution that revises Mincer–Jovanovic's [Mincer, J., Jovanovic, B., 1981. Labor mobility and wages. In: Rosen, S. (Ed.), Studies in Labor Markets. Chicago University Press, Chicago, pp. 21–64] treatment of tenure in the human capital earnings function. We estimate the structural parameters of this non-linear model on a large French cross-section with matched employer–employee data. We find that workers on average can learn from others 10% of their own human capital on entering one plant, and catch half of their learning from others’ potential in just 2 years. The private marginal returns to education are declining with education as more educated workers have less to learn from others and share the social returns of their own education with their less qualified co-workers. The potential for learning from others on the job varies across jobs and establishments, and this provides a new distinction between imitation jobs and experience jobs. Workers in imitation jobs, who learn most from others, tend to have considerably longer tenure than workers in experience jobs. Although workers in experience jobs can learn little from others, we find that they learn a lot by themselves. We document several analogies between the imitation jobs/experience jobs “dualism” and the primary/secondary jobs and firms’ dualism implied by the dual labor market theory. However, our binary classification of jobs depicts the data more closely than the dual theory categorization into primary-type and secondary-type establishments. Competition prevails between jobs and firms but jobs differ by their learning technology.     

Risk Perception of the "Mad Cow Disease" in France: Determinants and Consequences

Since 1996, when bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) was assessed as a possible human transmissible disease, a variant of Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (vCJD), French people have entered into a long period of fear and avoidance of beef and bovine byproducts, which produced an unprecedented collapse in the beef market. This article deals with the perceived risk of the "mad cow disease" (MCD) in the French general population. Two surveys were conducted on a representative sample of the adult population, the first one in 2000 during the peak of the crisis and the second one 13 months later in a quieter period. The main assumption we made was that changes in beef consumption are strongly related to the perceived risk of MCD, which we defined as people's cognitive and affective responses to hazard. Our objective was to identify the determinants and consequences of this perceived risk and to compare them in different sociopolitical contexts. The results issued from a bivariate and multivariate analysis show that: (i) the distribution of most of the variables significantly related to the perceived risk identified in the first survey had changed in the second survey, in relation with the reduction of worry and the resumption of national beef consumption; (ii) the propensity for self-protection through avoiding or ceasing beef eating was more related to feelings of worry than to subjective vCJD risk assessments; and (iii) the main determinant of less avoidance to beef products was the preference for beef, a feeling identified prior to emergence of the risk of MCD, remaining unchanged in various contexts.     

Management science in the United States and Europe: A decade of change in the literature

This paper focuses upon the investigation of change in the management science literature from 1965 to 1974. Both subject areas and reported areas of implementation are investigated. The study classifies the content of each article published during the past decade in the following set of European and American journals: United States—Management Science; British—Operational Research Quarterly; and German—Zeitscrift für Operations Research. A comparison of the results along both inter and intra country dimensions is presented.     

Mixed refinements of Shapley's saddles and weak tournaments

We investigate refinements of two solutions, the saddle and the weak saddle, defined by Shapley (1964) for two-player zero-sum games. Applied to weak tournaments, the first refinement, the mixed saddle, is unique and gives us a new solution, generally lying between the GETCHA and GOTCHA sets of Schwartz (1972, 1986). In the absence of ties, all three solutions reduce to the usual top cycle set. The second refinement, the weak mixed saddle, is not generally unique, but, in the absence of ties, it is unique and coincides with the minimal covering set. Received: 14 August 1998/Accepted: 12 November 1999     

Cardiac conditions

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of death in the US. The growth of the older population in coming decades will inevitably increase the incidence of age-related cardiac disease. Increasing evidence has shown the prevalence of co-morbid mental health conditions in CVD patients. Specifically, depression and anxiety have been linked with CVD mortality. Due to the risk of psychosocial conditions with cardiac patients, mental health practitioners in health and gerontology need to be well-informed about CVD-related mental health comorbidity and current research developments. Accordingly, this article provides a systematic review of the clinical evidence about the efficacy, cost-effectiveness, and any potential risk of psychosocial intervention with cardiac patients.     

Distribution of the random future life expectancies in log-bilinear mortality projection models

Projected life tables are obtained from forecasting methods and account for future improvements in longevity. Since the future path of mortality is unknown, working with projected life tables makes the survival probabilities stochastic. The resulting demographic indicators in turn become random variables. This paper aims to study the distribution of period and cohort life expectancies derived from projected life tables. To fix the ideas, we adopt here the standard Lee–Carter framework, where the future forces of mortality are decomposed in a log-bilinear way. Exact formulas are derived for period life expectancies, and approximations are proposed for cohort life expectancies. In the latter case, numerical illustrations based on Belgian population data show that the relative accuracy is remarkable.     

Maux du travail : dégradation, recomposition ou illusion ?

In recent years, the attention of French public opinion has been focused on the noxious effects of new ways of organizing work. Stress, “suffering”, burnout, psychosocial risks and suicides are topics that have brought experts, the media and politicians into action. What do the social sciences have to say about this? Among the several reactions presented, the principal contrast arises between those who analyze the ills of work as “social constructions” and those who see them as the implications of a trend toward intensifying job-related activities.     

Purchasing Power Parities of Currencies and Real Expenditures from the International Comparison Program: Recent Results and Uses

The International Comparison Program (ICP) is a worldwide statistical initiative designed to estimate purchasing power parities (PPPs) that can be used as currency converters to compare the performance of countries around the world, thereby providing in-depth views of the distribution of resources worldwide. The 2011 round of the ICP was leveraged on the successful outcome of the 2005 round that included 146 countries, introducing various methodological improvements. The summary report and results from the 2011 round were released in April 2014 and provided PPPs, price levels indices, and expenditures in PPP terms for the GDP and major aggregates for 199 participating countries. More detailed results were released in June 2014 and a final comprehensive report in October 2014. The final report provided a more in-depth analysis of volume and per capita indices. The results stirred a strong debate among the user community because of their finding that the world has become more equal than previously thought. The purpose of this paper is to provide an overview of the main results and findings of ICP 2011, its governance framework and partnership with the Eurostat-Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) PPP program, and the major methodological innovations that were implemented. The paper reviews the major uses of the PPPs generated by the ICP 2011 and the Eurostat-OECD PPP program, and concludes with thoughts about the future of the ICP.     

1930年代审查制度和文学价值的建立

1930年代的国民党政府企图控制文学生产,以“合法”的形式建立起对作家的专制控制,这属于严格意义上的文学审查范围.国民党的审查制度,是正式审查的一个例子,是出版前审查和出版后审查的某种混合.1934年成立于上海的中央图书杂志审查委员会,似乎并没有改变1930年代中国文学场内部主要权力关系.与其它地区的审查和压制比起来,国民党文学审查在一定程度上尊重文学场的法则.