Small Business Success Among Men- and Women-Owned Firms in Rural Areas1

Abstract Rural women have difficulty finding good jobs. Ownership of small businesses offers an alternative but the sales and income of women-owned firms are significantly lower than those of men-owned firms. Compared with men, women owners are more likely to operate smaller and newer businesses; however, these differences do not completely account for the gap in gross sales between men- and women-owned businesses. The strongest influences on business success are firm size, corporate status, and industrial sector. Though significant, the owner's gender is less important than these organizational characteristics. The factors influencing success of small businesses generally are the same for men- and women-owned businesses. More research on business networks and the start-up phase of small businesses is necessary for a better understanding of the sources of gender differences in success.     

Class analysis and its futures

Books reviewed in this articles:
Class and Stratification: An introduction to current debates R. Crompton
Class S. Edgell
Changing Classes: Stratification and Mobility in Post-Industrial Societies G. Esping-Anderson, (ed.)
Class and Inequality: Comparative Perspectives M. Hamilton and M. Hirszowicz
Class R. Scase     

Bayesian analysis of outlier problems using divergence measures

A Bayesian approach is presented for detecting influential observations using general divergence measures on the posterior distributions. A sampling-based approach using a Gibbs or Metropolis-within-Gibbs method is used to compute the posterior divergence measures. Four specific measures are proposed, which convey the effects of a single observation or covariate on the posterior. The technique is applied to a generalized linear model with binary response data, an overdispersed model and a nonlinear model. An asymptotic approximation using Laplace method to obtain the posterior divergence is also briefly discussed.     

Who Gets What From Government? Distributional Consequences of Child‐Care Assistance Policies

Given the fragmented structure of child‐care assistance in the United States, it has been difficult to obtain accurate estimates of which families are assisted, through which mechanisms, and at what level. Making use of survey data from New York City, we analyze the distribution of several forms of public child‐care assistance. Results suggest that about 40% of all families with young children receive some form of child‐care assistance. Considering all forms of assistance, the distribution of child‐care help is targeted in both expected and some unexpected ways. Implications of these results are discussed in the context of U.S. child‐care policies governing access and benefit levels.     

The role of family help in the housing decisions of young people

Recent debates about flows of help within the family have indicated considerable diversity according to the type of help (money, services), and ages and gender of those involved, and have shown that values are only a partial guide to the scale of such flows. This paper focuses on a particular occasion for help, young people's housing, and a particular region, South-East England, where one would expect family financial help to be high given the capacity to help of older generations (due to higher average incomes and wealth) and the affordability problems faced by young people. It is shown that contrary to hypothesis only 12% of a sample of young people had received financial help for housing purposes since they had left home, less than found in previous studies with different samples. The amounts involved were less than young people believed their parents could afford. The role of inheritance was also found to be minor. The results from the different studies are explained as due to changes in the housing market, changing values regarding financial help and differences among the samples. Intensive re-interviews with three households from very different backgrounds are used to show the different ways in which family help operates.     

A Numerical Solution to the Nonhomogeneous Two-Stage MVK Model of Cancer

In this article, we describe a straightforward method for solving the probability of at least one malignant cell by time t, and the associated hazard function, in the general (i.e., nonhomogeneous) two-stage Moolgavkar-Venzon-Knudson (MVK) model of cancer. The method consists of solving four coupled ordinary differential equations derived from the Kolmogorov backward equations for this process. The relationship of this method to previously proposed solutions is discussed.     

追求新亚洲安全:文化视角中的地区合作

21世纪各个国家特别是亚洲各国进入了发展的新阶段。亚洲在经济发展中实现了建设性的双边伙伴关系。但是亚洲国家形成“与西方传统不同的亚洲国际关系模式”仍然任重道远。作者认为,亚洲共同的文化认同可以发挥重要作用,理应把亚洲国家特别是两个人口最多的国家中国和印度团结起来,全面实现“亚洲共同体”的战略目标。     

A comparison of indicators for evaluating x-11-arima seasonal adjustment

Summary The evaluation of the performance of seasonal adjustment procedures is an issue of practical importance in view of the unobservable nature of the components. Looking at just one indicator when judging the overall quality of a procedure may be misleading, even though this is common practice when many series are involved. The main purpose of this paper is to compare the information content of different synthetic indicators with reference to the X-11-ARIMA procedure. Sixty-six different types of monthly seasonal series are generated and the seasonal component then extracted by carrying out X-11-ARIMA with standard options. The correlation between the pseudo-true error for each series and various synthetic indicators allows us to compare the latter's reliability, under both the hypotheses of minimum and maximum variance of the pseudo-true seasonal component. We show that the overall quality indexQ-the indicator most commonly adopted by users of the X-11-ARIMA-is always outperformed by the simpler diagnostics based on the stability of the estimates. In particular, the “sliding-spans” indicator, proposed by Findley et al. (1990) and included in the diagnostics of the new X-12 procedure, shows a much stronger correlation with the pseudo-true error in the seasonal adjustment. We also show that the total forecasting errors in the one-year-ahead extrapolation of the seasonal component have a good informative power and perform almost as well as the “sliding-spans” indicator.