Does Gender Matter?

In this article we explore gender differences in opinion regarding controversial social issues. The issues we selected are: attitudes toward African Americans, Jews, Muslims, Affirmative Action, abortion, and gays and lesbians. This selection is based on the importance of these issues in public debate and electoral politics. A number of these issues, mainly those related to opinions toward religious and racial groups, reflect the development of the American society and draw lines of possible disagreements and social cleavages. Our purpose is to draw attention to an important factor in determining public opinion toward these issues. We aim to explore issues where gender makes a clear difference, where it does not only hold an important role as other factors such as race and political affiliation, and where considerations of gender need to be combined with other personal attributes in order to understand their real impact. These highlights are intended to shed light on the role of gender in social issues as well as understanding these issues from a perspective that includes gender as a dimension in opinion making.     

Local Weighted Average Estimation of the Regression Operator for Functional Data

We are concerned with the problem of local weighted average estimation of the regression operator when the responses are real-valued random variables, the explanatory data are of functional fixed-design type, and the errors consist of an independent and identically distributed variables. In this article, our main contributions on the local linear functional estimation concern from one part, the situation when the data are of functional fixed-design kind, and from the other part, in deriving uniform asymptotic results on the behavior of this estimator with respect to the topological properties of the space data (normed or semi-metric).     

Performance Evaluation Based on the Robust Mahalanobis Distance and Multilevel Modeling Using Two New Strategies

In this article, we propose a general framework for performance evaluation of organizations and individuals over time using routinely collected performance variables or indicators. Such variables or indicators are often correlated over time, with missing observations, and often come from heavy-tailed distributions shaped by outliers. Two new double robust and model-free strategies are used for evaluation (ranking) of sampling units. Strategy 1 can handle missing data using residual maximum likelihood (RML) at stage two, while strategy two handles missing data at stage one. Strategy 2 has the advantage that overcomes the problem of multicollinearity. Strategy one requires independent indicators for the construction of the distances, where strategy two does not. Two different domain examples are used to illustrate the application of the two strategies. Example one considers performance monitoring of gynecologists and example two considers the performance of industrial firms.     

Likelihood ratio tests for covariance hypotheses generating commutative quadratic subspaces

We show that the likelihood ratio (LR) tests, for covariance hypotheses in multivariate normal models, take the form of a product of powers of independent beta variates whenever the covariance matrices generate a commutative quadratic subspace (CQS), See Seely (1971), under both the model and the hypothesis.     

Piecewise deterministic Markov processes applied to fatigue crack growth modelling

In this paper, we use a particular piecewise deterministic Markov process (PDMP) to model the evolution of a degradation mechanism that may arise in various structural components, namely, the fatigue crack growth. We first derive some probability results on the stochastic dynamics with the help of Markov renewal theory: a closed-form solution for the transition function of the PDMP is given. Then, we investigate some methods to estimate the parameters of the dynamical system, involving Bogolyubov's averaging principle and maximum likelihood estimation for the infinitesimal generator of the underlying jump Markov process. Numerical applications on a real crack data set are given.     

An ensemble method for concept drift in nonstationary environment

Most statistical and data-mining algorithms assume that data come from a stationary distribution. However, in many real-world classification tasks, data arrive over time and the target concept to be learned from the data stream may change accordingly. Many algorithms have been proposed for learning drifting concepts. To deal with the problem of learning when the distribution generating the data changes over time, dynamic weighted majority was proposed as an ensemble method for concept drift. Unfortunately, this technique considers neither the age of the classifiers in the ensemble nor their past correct classification. In this paper, we propose a method that takes into account expert's age as well as its contribution to the global algorithm's accuracy. We evaluate the effectiveness of our proposed method by using m classifiers and training a collection of n-fold partitioning of the data. Experimental results on a benchmark data set show that our method outperforms existing ones.     

A robust principal component analysis

This work is concerned with robustness in Principal Component Analysis (PCA). The approach, which we adopt here, is to replace the criterion of least squares by another criterion based on a convex and sufficiently differentiable loss function ρ. Using this criterion we propose a robust estimate of the location vector and introduce an orthogonality with respect to (w.r.t.) ρ in order to define the different steps of a PCA. The influence functions of a vector mean and principal vectors are developed in order to provide method for obtaining a robust PCA. The practical procedure is based on an alternative-steps algorithm.     

Redistributed Manufacturing and the Impact of Big Data: A Consumer Goods Perspective

Abstract

Digitalization and the growth of big data promise greater customization as well as change in how manufacturing is distributed. Yet, challenges arise in applying these new approaches in consumer goods industries that often emphasize mass production and extended supply chains. We build a conceptual framework to explore whether big data combined with new manufacturing technologies can facilitate redistributed manufacturing (RDM). Through analysis of 24 consumer goods industry cases using primary and secondary data, we investigated evolving manufacturing configurations, their underlying drivers, the role of big data applications, and their impact on the redistribution of manufacturing. We find some applications of RDM concepts, although in other cases existing manufacturing configurations are leveraged for high volume consumer goods products through big data analytics and market segmentation. The analysis indicates that the framework put forward in the paper has broader value in organizing thinking about emerging interrelationships between big data and manufacturing.     

Value-at-risk estimation by LS-SVR and FS-LS-SVR based on GAS model

ABSTRACT

Conditional risk measuring plays an important role in financial regulation and depends on volatility estimation. A new class of parameter models called Generalized Autoregressive Score (GAS) model has been successfully applied for different error's densities and for different problems of time series prediction in particular for volatility modeling and VaR estimation. To improve the estimating accuracy of the GAS model, this study proposed a semi-parametric method, LS-SVR and FS-LS-SVR applied to the GAS model to estimate the conditional VaR. In particular, we fit the GAS(1,1) model to the return series using three different distributions. Then, LS-SVR and FS-LS-SVR approximate the GAS(1,1) model. An empirical research was performed to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed method. More precisely, the experimental results from four stock indexes returns suggest that using hybrid models, GAS-LS-SVR and GAS-FS-LS-SVR provides improved performances in the VaR estimation.     

Perinatal and social factors predicting caesarean birth in a 2004 Australian birth cohort

Background

The proportion of babies born by caesarean section in Australia has almost doubled over the last 25 years. Factors known to contribute to caesarean such as higher maternal age, mothers being overweight or obese, or having had a previous caesarean do not completely account for the increased rate and it is clear that other influences exist.