Testing for linearity and convexity of potency curve

Let P(t) be the probability that a subject dies at dose level t or a unit fails at stress level t,then the Bayesian methodology is used to test (i) P(t) is straight line and (ii) P(t) is convex function (concave function).     

On the Dirichlet distributions on symmetric matrices

In this paper, we introduce a generalization of the Dirichlet distribution on symmetric matrices which represents the multivariate version of the Connor and Mosimann generalized real Dirichlet distribution. We establish some properties concerning this generalized distribution. We also extend to the matrix Dirichlet distribution a remarkable characterization established in the real case by Darroch and Ratcliff.     

Periodic integer-valued GARCH(1, 1) model

This article deals with some probabilistic and statistical properties of a periodic integer-valued GARCH(1,1) model. Necessary and sufficient conditions for the periodical stationary, both in mean and second order, are established. The closed-forms of the mean and the second moment are, under these conditions, obtained. The condition of the existence of higher moment orders and their explicit formula in terms of the parameters are established. The autocovariance structure is studied, while providing the closed-form of the periodic autocorrelation function. The Yule–Walker and the likelihood estimations of the underlying parameters are obtained. A simulation study and an application on real dataset are provided.     

An On-Line Estimation Algorithm for Periodic Autoregressive Models

This paper develops an on-line estimation algorithm for periodic autoregressive models (PAR). Indeed, we provide an adaptation of the well known recursive least squares algorithm (RLS), which has been successfully applied to classical autoregressive models (AR), to deal with PAR models. The obtained estimators are shown to be asymptotically efficient under mild conditions. Moreover, the performance of the periodic least squares algorithm (PRLS) is assessed via an intensive simulation study.     

Modeling Uncertainties in Workforce Disruptions from Influenza Pandemics Using Dynamic Input‐Output Analysis

Influenza pandemic is a serious disaster that can pose significant disruptions to the workforce and associated economic sectors. This article examines the impact of influenza pandemic on workforce availability within an interdependent set of economic sectors. We introduce a simulation model based on the dynamic input‐output model to capture the propagation of pandemic consequences through the National Capital Region (NCR). The analysis conducted in this article is based on the 2009 H1N1 pandemic data. Two metrics were used to assess the impacts of the influenza pandemic on the economic sectors: (i) inoperability, which measures the percentage gap between the as‐planned output and the actual output of a sector, and (ii) economic loss, which quantifies the associated monetary value of the degraded output. The inoperability and economic loss metrics generate two different rankings of the critical economic sectors. Results show that most of the critical sectors in terms of inoperability are sectors that are related to hospitals and health‐care providers. On the other hand, most of the sectors that are critically ranked in terms of economic loss are sectors with significant total production outputs in the NCR such as federal government agencies. Therefore, policy recommendations relating to potential mitigation and recovery strategies should take into account the balance between the inoperability and economic loss metrics.     

The Square of Polish Innocence: POLIN Museum of the History of Polish Jews in Warsaw and its symbolic topography

The text refers to the space around the Nathan Rapoport’s Monument to the Fighters and Martyrs of the Ghetto and the Museum of the History of Polish Jews POLIN in Warsaw (Poland). The site of death – at the heart of the former Warsaw Ghetto – has now become a site overloaded with other symbolic messages. Two main symbolic centers (the 1948 Monument and the 2013 Museum) are today encircled by ten other, additional memorials. The message emerging from the content as well as the proportion of commemorations is that Polish solidarity with the Jews was a fact and it stood the test of terror and death brought by the Germans. Although it does not undermine the veracity of the few and isolated exceptions, such a version of events is drastically different from the actual facts. Both symbolic centers are perceived as emblems of Jewish minority narrative. Additional artefacts are a message formulated by the Polish majority. They constitute a kind of symbolic encirclement, block. Emphasizing the dominant majority’s version of the events in this place is in fact a symbolic pre-emptive action. It is meant to silence the unwanted narrative or suppress even the mere possibility that it might emerge. What turns out to be at stake in the dominant Polish narrative about the Holocaust and Polish-Jewish relations is the image of Poland and the Poles. This shows not only the topographic and symbolic situation but also the socio-cultural context of the functioning of the new Museum.     

Biała emigracja: variegated mobility of Polish care workers

ABSTRACT

This paper analyzes migration of Polish healthcare and eldercare workers since Poland's accession to the European Union. The research indicates that while many Polish doctors, nurses, and caregivers ‘left’ Poland, they did not necessarily ‘stay’ abroad. Contemporary Polish migration has become ‘liquid’ and has often taken on a form of ‘pendulum’ or ‘circular’ migration and, in some cases, transnational commuting, especially in the early years following Poland's accession to the EU. These patterns are particularly evident among healthcare and eldercare workers whose flexible working schedules or life stages allow for retaining employment positions and households in Poland while taking short-term or prolonged leave of absence to work abroad. The research also suggests that different migration patterns are related to the characteristics of the place of migrant origin and the geographic distance or proximity of the destination countries. Residents of border towns can easily commute to cities on the other side of the frontier, while those who want to work in geographically more distant countries and cities must, by necessity, consider longer-term or permanent arrangements. The analysis of the variegated mobility of elder care workers is situated in the context of policy discussions related to care drain and care supply as well as quality of migrant care.     

Post-Political Transitions in Arab Spring Countries: The Challenges

This paper aims at examining the impact of political transitions on democracy, corruption and growth in countries which knew democratic changes. The results of our study indicate that these changes positively affect implementation of democratic principles, the struggle against corruption and economic growth. We examined also the case of the Arab spring countries focusing on the main political and socio-economic challenges and most importantly the religious challenge which is a characteristic of these countries. Indeed, religion may be considered as a relevant variable in these transitions and consequently it is very difficult to claim short-term or long-term triumph of these transitions as Arabs are now in a political boiling phase where religion may gather unexpected results.