Asymptotic normality of a robust estimator of the regression function for functional time series data

We propose a family of robust nonparametric estimators for a regression function based on the kernel method. We establish the asymptotic normality of the estimator under the concentration property on small balls probability measure of the functional explanatory variable when the observations exhibit some kind of dependence. This approach can be applied in time series analysis to make prediction and build confidence bands. We illustrate our methodology on the US electricity consumption data.     

Labour Policy and Determinants of Employment and Wages in a Developing Economy with Labour Shortage

Using data from a sample of 1,099 workers, this paper investigates the determinants of employment and wages for workers in the United Arab Emirates. The paper further examines the wage distribution and the decomposition of the wage gap between the public and the private sectors. Results of the study are consistent with the dual labour market theory and indicate that the labour market in the United Arab Emirates is segmented based on sectors (public versus private) and types of workers (nationals versus non‐nationals). The study concludes with a discussion of the implication of these findings for the effectiveness of labour and economic policy.     

Portrayal of Muslims Following the Murders of Lee Rigby in Woolwich and Mohammed Saleem in Birmingham: A Content Analysis of UK Newspapers

In 2013, Michael Adebolajo and Michael Adebowale murdered a British soldier, named Lee Rigby in Woolwich, south-east London. In the aftermath of the incident, evidence showed Muslims had become targets for a rise in anti-Muslim hate crimes.¹1. ACPO, “True Vision Records”, 2013. Available at: http://www.reportit.org.uk/true_vision_records_a_significant_weekly_reduct (accessed 2 September 2014).View all notes Most notably, mosques had been reported to have been burnt down and graffiti with messages of hate scrawled against the walls. In such times, the role of the media is crucial in projecting a balanced approach. This study analysed newspaper coverage three weeks from the Woolwich attacks and examined the language and headlines used to describe Muslims. Over 1022 articles from UK newspapers were reviewed using the Nexis database utilising both quantitative and qualitative methods to examine the media narrative regarding Muslims and also make a comparative analysis of how the media reported on the case of Mohammed Saleem who was murdered by the far right extremist, Pavlo Lapshyn. The newspaper articles were analysed by using the computer software NVivo to search for and identify patterns across the articles in order to give an idea of the most frequent ways that Muslims were being portrayed. This paper found that news coverage had generalised about Muslims which was made in an overtly prejudicial way.     

Cryptosporidium and Dairy Cattle in the Catskill/Delaware Watershed: A Quantitative Risk Assessment

We carried out a study to estimate the public health risk posed by dairy cattle located in New York City's Catskill/Delaware watershed, as measured by daily C. parvum-like oocyst loading. A Monte Carlo simulation model that takes into account the nature of the dairy cattle population within the target area, age-specific incidence/prevalence rates, as well as differential fecal production and oocyst-shedding intensity rates was used to address the objectives. Additionally, the model was designed to distinguish between zoonotic and nonzoonotic species/genotypes of Cryptosporidium. Total estimated daily C. parvum-like oocyst shedding across all age/production categories was estimated at 4.15 x 10(10). The zoonotic C. parvum comprised 93.5% of this load. It was estimated that preweaned calves produce 99.5% of the total daily C. parvum ocyst burden. The recently described nonzoonotic C. bovis was estimated to have a daily load of 2.2 x 10(9) oocysts across all age/production strata. C. parvum deer-like genotype was estimated to have a total daily load of 1.3 x 10(9) oocysts. The results of this study support earlier assertions that strategies aimed at reducing the cryptosporidial risk posed by dairy cattle to public health will be most efficacious if aimed at preweaned calves.     

Learning from tradition: the planning of residential neighborhoods in a changing world

This paper analyses the community values of residential neighborhoods in the southwestern region of Saudi Arabia as an approach to a new theory in urbanism. The indigenous masterbuilders and tribemen incorporated planning decisions pertinent to climatic, cultural, social, economic and religious factors when designing physical elements in their built environment. This is what makes every traditional settlement in the southwest region of Saudi Arabia unique in terms of urban form and social structure. As a step to examining and evaluating the process of residential neighborhood development, three stages of practiced urbanism are discussed. These stages are labelled “vernacular”, “transitional” and “new vernacularism”. These are planning concepts used worldwide in the development of residential neighborhoods throughout history until the present. “New Vernacularism” is envisioned in this investigation as a design/planning objective implemented in most recently planned neighborhoods in Al-Horaidhah, Southwest Saudi Arabia. The achievement of successful urbanism underlies the political goals of urban planning practice. The Al-Horaidhah planning concept is conceived in the light of preservation of community values in neighborhood design/planning as a critical issue.The paper aims to investigate and reconcile the conflicts in the planning of residential neighborhoods in a changing world. The conflicts are restricted between retaining traditions of architecture, urban design and planning with the necessary social, economic, and technological changes in urban formation, mainly, the vernacular and modern. The paper illustrates the concept “New Vernacularism” by presenting Al-Horaidhah scheme as a model for community development in three administrative regions along the Red Sea coastline. “New Vernacularism” as a planning concept looks at the community development in Al-Horaidhah in the light of Sharicah, the Islamic Law and Customary norms by emphasizing the importance of the involvement of local residents in the planning process and gives suggestions of how this might best be achieved and later implemented into new communities.     

Scalable spatio‐temporal Bayesian analysis of high‐dimensional electroencephalography data

We present a scalable Bayesian modelling approach for identifying brain regions that respond to a certain stimulus and use them to classify subjects. More specifically, we deal with multi‐subject electroencephalography (EEG) data with a binary response distinguishing between alcoholic and control groups. The covariates are matrix‐variate with measurements taken from each subject at different locations across multiple time points. EEG data have a complex structure with both spatial and temporal attributes. We use a divide‐and‐conquer strategy and build separate local models, that is, one model at each time point. We employ Bayesian variable selection approaches using a structured continuous spike‐and‐slab prior to identify the locations that respond to a certain stimulus. We incorporate the spatio‐temporal structure through a Kronecker product of the spatial and temporal correlation matrices. We develop a highly scalable estimation algorithm, using likelihood approximation, to deal with large number of parameters in the model. Variable selection is done via clustering of the locations based on their duration of activation. We use scoring rules to evaluate the prediction performance. Simulation studies demonstrate the efficiency of our scalable algorithm in terms of estimation and fast computation. We present results using our scalable approach on a case study of multi‐subject EEG data.     

Estimating drift parameters in a non-ergodic Gaussian Vasicek-type model

Statistical Methods & Applications - We study a problem of parameter estimation for a non-ergodic Gaussian Vasicek-type model defined as $$dX_t=\theta (\mu + X_t)dt+dG_t,\ t\ge 0$$ with unknown...     

Testing Prospect Theories Using Probability Tradeoff Consistency

The two versions of prospect theory, original prospect theory (OPT; Kahneman and Tversky, 1979) and cumulative prospect theory (CPT; Tversky and Kahneman, 1992), use different composition rules to combine the value function and the probability weighting function and hence value gambles with two or more non-zero outcomes differently. Previous tests of OPT and CPT have yielded mixed results, with some investigations supporting OPT and some supporting CPT. We extend the probability tradeoff consistency axiom used in Abdellaoui (2002) for CPT to OPT, and develop a critical test of the two prospect theories based on their respective probability tradeoff consistency conditions. An empirical investigation of the critical test shows that choices are consistent with OPT, but not CPT, for gambles that do not involve a certainty effect, and consistent with both CPT and OPT for gambles that do involve a certainty effect, provided that an editing operation is invoked for OPT.     

The Likelihood Method for Decision under Uncertainty

This paper introduces the likelihood method for decision under uncertainty. The method allows the quantitative determination of subjective beliefs or decision weights without invoking additional separability conditions, and generalizes the Savage–de Finetti betting method. It is applied to a number of popular models for decision under uncertainty. In each case, preference foundations result from the requirement that no inconsistencies are to be revealed by the version of the likelihood method appropriate for the model considered. A unified treatment of subjective decision weights results for most of the decision models popular today. Savage’s derivation of subjective expected utility can now be generalized and simplified. In addition to the intuitive and empirical contributions of the likelihood method, we provide a number of technical contributions: We generalize Savage’s nonatomiticy condition (“P6”) and his assumption of (sigma) algebras of events, while fully maintaining his flexibility regarding the outcome set. Derivations of Choquet expected utility and probabilistic sophistication are generalized and simplified similarly. The likelihood method also reveals a common intuition underlying many other conditions for uncertainty, such as definitions of ambiguity aversion and pessimism.