Methods for Small Area Population Forecasts: State-of-the-Art and Research Needs

Population Research and Policy Review - Small area population forecasts are widely used by government and business for a variety of planning, research and policy purposes, and often influence major...     

Shifting Standards and the Evaluation of Competence: Complexity in Gender-Based Judgment and Decision Making

Gender stereotypes regarding task competence may lead perceivers to set different standards for diagnosing competence in women versus men. Specifically, stereotypes may prompt lower minimum standards (or initial screening criteria) but higher confirmatory standards for women than men (Biernat & Kobrynowicz, 1997). In two studies simulating hiring decisions, predictions were that women would be (1) more likely than men to make a short list for a job but (2) less likely than men to be hired for the same job. Results were generally consistent with predictions only among female participants (Studies 1 and 2), among those exposed to a female experimenter (Study 1), and among those held accountable for their decisions (Study 2). The role of motivational factors in the setting of standards is discussed.     

Life Course Heterogeneity in the Transition from Adolescence to Adulthood Among Adolescent Mothers

Longitudinal data were used to examine pathways taken by 227 adolescent mothers during the transition from adolescence into adulthood. Latent profile analysis identified three sub‐groups of adolescent mothers from 6 months to 6 years postpartum: a problem‐prone profile (15%), a psychologically vulnerable profile (42%), and a normative profile (43%). Group membership was related to long‐term adult outcomes (adult status markers, health‐risk and deviant behaviors, substance use, mental health, and intimate relationships) when respondents were nearing age 30. The psychologically vulnerable group reported greater health and mental health problems, relational problems, and substance use than the normative profile group. Only the problem‐prone profile group, taken together, reported serious problems in all domains of adult outcomes examined including financial, relational, behavioral, and health and mental health problems. Results confirm the existence of different pathways through adolescent parenthood that are associated with adult functioning 12 years postpartum.     

Cultural Valorization and African American Literary History: Reconstructing the Canon

The determinants of and variations in processes of cultural valorization are of increasing interest to sociologists. In the case of high-culture literary texts, the central evaluation process takes place through canon formation. We explore the mechanisms of canon formation and of cultural valorization processes more generally by analyzing the critical history of Zora Neale Hurston's novel Their Eyes Were Watching God. Published in 1937 to lukewarm reviews, the novel is currently considered a core canonical text. We specify three processes involved in the reconstruction of Hurston's novel and in the establishment of the African American literary canon: (1) the application of new evaluative criteria, (2) the reconstruction of textual meaning through newly available interpretative strategies, and (3) changes in the institutional and organizational environment that allowed new claims on high-status critical positions to be made by those previously outside the literary hierarchy. The implications of this study for theoretical models of cultural valorization in sociology are considered.     

Dynamic generalized linear models with application to environmental epidemiology

Summary. We propose modelling short-term pollutant exposure effects on health by using dynamic generalized linear models. The time series of count data are modelled by a Poisson distribution having mean driven by a latent Markov process; estimation is performed by the extended Kalman filter and smoother. This modelling strategy allows us to take into account possible overdispersion and time-varying effects of the covariates. These ideas are illustrated by reanalysing data on the relationship between daily non-accidental deaths and air pollution in the city of Birmingham, Alabama.     

Globalization, the new economy, and the commodification of language and identity

The globalized new economy is bound up with transformations of language and identity in many different ways (cf., e.g. Bauman 1997; Castells 2000; Giddens 1990). These include emerging tensions between State-based and corporate identities and language practices, between local, national and supra-national identities and language practices, and between hybridity and uniformity. Ethnolinguistic minorities provide a particularly revealing window into these processes. In this paper, I explore ways in which the globalized new economy has resulted in the commodification of language and identity, sometimes separately, sometimes together. The paper is based on recent ethnographic, sociolinguistic research in francophone areas of Canada.     

Will It Help? Identifying Socialization Discourses That Promote Sexual Risk and Sexual Health Among African American Youth

Because much of the existing research examining sexual communication to African American youth focuses on demographic and parental factors predicting sexual risk behaviors, less is known about factors predicting sexual health, and little is understood about the contributions of peer communications. The current study aimed to expand existing approaches by assessing which socialization discourses communicated by parents and peers contribute to sexual risk and health outcomes (sexual assertiveness, positive sexual affect, and condom self-efficacy). Participants were 631 African American undergraduates (73% female) who indicated the extent to which they had received from their parents and peers each of 28 messages representing four cultural discourses: abstinence, relational sex, sex positive, and gendered sexual roles. As expected, parents were perceived to emphasize relational sex and abstinence messages more than peers, and peers were perceived to communicate sex-positive and gendered sex role messages more than parents. Greater exposure to abstinence messages predicted lower levels of sexual experimentation, whereas exposure to sex-positive messages predicted higher levels. In addition, exposure to relational sex and sex-positive messages predicted higher levels of sexual assertiveness and positive sexual affect. Implications are discussed concerning sexual communications that could help Black youth develop healthy sexual perspectives.     

Are There Myths on Road Impact and Transport in Sub‐Saharan Africa?

Large investments in road infrastructure continue to be high on the agenda of many African countries, only a few of which have actually amended their investment strategy. In many cases, there seems to be a preference for a status quo that can easily be explained by political‐economy factors driving policies in the sector. After presenting data on the state of roads in sub‐Saharan Africa (length, density, condition), this article demonstrates how most countries’ transport strategies are based on certain misperceptions and recommends better prioritisation of investments, better procurement and contract management, better projects implementation and better monitoring to improve the developmental impact of recent road investments.