Bayesian modeling of temporal properties of infectious disease in a college student population

A Bayesian statistical model is developed for analysis of the time-evolving properties of infectious disease, with a particular focus on viruses. The model employs a latent semi-Markovian state process, and the state-transition statistics are driven by three terms: (i) a general time-evolving trend of the overall population, (ii) a semi-periodic term that accounts for effects caused by the days of the week, and (iii) a regression term that relates the probability of infection to covariates (here, specifically, to the Google Flu Trends data). Computations are performed using Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling. Results are presented using a novel data set: daily self-reported symptom scores from hundreds of Duke University undergraduate students, collected over three academic years. The illnesses associated with these students are (imperfectly) labeled using real-time (RT) polymerase chain reaction (PCR) testing for several viruses, and gene-expression data were also analyzed. The statistical analysis is performed on the daily, self-reported symptom scores, and the RT PCR and gene-expression data are employed for analysis and interpretation of the model results.     

Local stationarity in small area estimation models

Small area estimators are often based on linear mixed models under the assumption that relationships among variables are stationary across the area of interest (Fay–Herriot models). This hypothesis is patently violated when the population is divided into heterogeneous latent subgroups. In this paper we propose a local Fay–Herriot model assisted by a Simulated Annealing algorithm to identify the latent subgroups of small areas. The value minimized through the Simulated Annealing algorithm is the sum of the estimated mean squared error (MSE) of the small area estimates. The technique is employed for small area estimates of erosion on agricultural land within the Rathbun Lake Watershed (IA, USA). The results are promising and show that introducing local stationarity in a small area model may lead to useful improvements in the performance of the estimators.     

Support networks and social support for persons with psychiatric disabilities—a Swedish mixed-methods study

The aim of this study was to explore the structure, interaction, and function of the support networks of women and men with psychiatric disabilities. The study took a mixed-methods approach, using quantitative (n=181) and qualitative (n=42) data from a region in southern Sweden. The quantitative results showed that the respondents received widespread support of different types and from many different sources. However, the qualitative interviews revealed that many of the interviewees did not perceive the received support as supportive. The respondents’ internal resources influenced both their ability to receive support and their perception of the support. The informal and formal support sources formed the external resources of the respondents. Our interviewees often experienced formal support as conditional support, while informal support from the family was experienced as unconditional. There was thus a gap between the structure and function of the social support. This article contributes important knowledge from the perspective of persons with psychiatric disabilities.     

Multilevel Social Dynamics Considerations for Project Management Decision Makers: Antecedents and Implications of Group Member Tie Development

Successful projects represent the effective culmination of management skills, planning, and individual project member strengths. In operations management, such strengths are often viewed predominantly from the perspective of skill base. However, it has become increasingly evident that behavioral traits associated with individuals play a very significant, if not ultimately dominating, role in the effectiveness of certain group projects. Our aim in this study is to look into how certain individual attributes viewed as relevant to these project contexts may lead to social networking decisions that have impacts spanning multiple levels of analysis. Such insights are likely to prove valuable to decision makers managing project teams as well. We employ a controlled 4‐month investigation of multiple projects, for which we are able to consider both objective, and subjective pre‐, in situ, and postproject data. Our results demonstrate that the issues of perceived control, confidence, and conscientiousness are relevant not only in driving individual perceptions of the value of within‐group interactions, and hence the development of associated ties, but are also ultimately relevant in helping to drive higher levels of group performance.     

Improving quality at the point of service

The authors provide a research-based construct of youth program quality that differentiates safety, support, interaction, and engagement, four important issues for practitioners working with youth in the middle years. They describe two tools that have helped direct staff to be intentional about creating offerings that are appropriate for early adolescents: the focusing idea of point-of-service quality and the technology of observational assessment. They describe how these tools can be used to create cultures of accountability and intentionality that extend across program levels.     

Business Performance Analytics: exploring the potential for Performance Management Systems

Business Performance Analytics (BPA) entails the systematic use of data and analytical methods (mathematical, econometric and statistical) for performance measurement and management. Although potentially overcoming some traditional diagnostic issues related to Performance Management Systems (PMS), such as information overload, absence of cause-effect relationships, lack of a holistic view of the organisation, research in the field is still in its infancy. A comprehensive model for operationalising analytics for diagnostic and interactive PMS is still lacking. Adopting an action research approach, this paper addresses this gap and develops a five-step framework applied to a company operating in the construction industry. The results show that in addition to encouraging dialogue, BPA can contribute to identifying critical performance variables, potential sources of risk and related interdependencies. A number of critical issues in implementing data-based approaches are also highlighted, including data quality, organisational competences and cultural shifts.     

Does schooling protect sexual health? The association between three measures of education and STIs among adolescents in Malawi

While multiple studies have documented shifting educational gradients in HIV prevalence, less attention has been given to the effect of school participation and academic skills on infection during adolescence. Using the Malawi Schooling and Adolescent Study, a longitudinal survey that followed 2,649 young people aged 14–17 at baseline from 2007 to 2013, we estimate the effect of three education variables: school enrolment, grade attainment, and academic skills—numeracy and Chichewa literacy—on herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) and HIV incidence using interval-censored survival analysis. We find that grade attainment is significantly associated with lower rates of both HSV-2 and HIV among girls, and is negatively associated with HSV-2 but not HIV among boys. School enrolment and academic skills are not significantly associated with sexually transmitted infections (STIs) for boys or girls in our final models. Efforts to encourage school progression in high-prevalence settings in sub-Saharan Africa could well reduce, or at least postpone, acquisition of STIs.     

Quality Assessment of the Oncology Health Service in a Public Hospital

Quality assessment is a crucial issue in the strategic management of the public health sector. The objective of this study is to investigate the patients’ perception of the health system quality and explore the relationships between doctors and long-term cancer patients. The data under study have been collected during a survey conducted with long-term cancer patients who follow an oncological therapy in a Public Hospital. In the study, exploratory factorial analysis is developed and two structural equation models are proposed. The first model describes the service quality as perceived by the patients, which is influenced by four important factors, namely tangible aspects, reliability, empathy (doctor–patient human relations) and hospital organization. The second model describes the relationship between doctors and long-term cancer patients, which is influenced by three factors, that is reliability, empathy and hospital organization. The discussion highlights the contribution that the results of the study may make to the investigation of the possible strategies for improving health care service quality.

     

Seeking Western Men: Divergent Trajectories of China’s “Email-Order Brides”

Qualitative Sociology - Based on 17 months of ethnography at three different online dating agencies in southern China, this article examines the life histories and decision-making...     

Neighborhood Norms,Disadvantage, and Intimate Partner Violence Perpetration

Most theoretical treatments of intimate partner violence (IPV) focus on individual‐level processes. More recently, scholars have begun to examine the role of macrolevel factors. Results of that research indicate that social ties facilitate the diffusion of cultural norms—including tolerance of deviance/violence—across neighborhoods. Yet the influence of the neighborhood normative climate extends beyond norms regarding the use of violence, shaping cultural understanding about dating and the opposite sex. Using data from the Toledo Adolescent Relationships Study (TARS), the current investigation examines the multilevel association between dating norms and IPV perpetration among a large, diverse sample of adolescents and young adults. Results indicate that individuals’ liberal dating attitudes are associated with IPV perpetration. Furthermore, this effect varies across levels of neighborhood disadvantage.