Distributions of certain variables in samples from two-parameter exponential distribution

Cumulative distribution function of the variable Y=(U+c)/(Z/2ν)) is given. Here U and Z are independent random variables, U has the exponential distribution (1.1) with θ=0, σ=1, Z has the distribution χ² (2ν) and c is a real quantity. The variable Y with U and Z given by (2.2) and (2.3) is used for inference about the parametric functions ?=θ?kσ of a two-parameter exponential distribution (1.1) with k or ? known. Special cases of ? or k are: the parameter θ, the Pth quantile Xp, the mean θ+σ and the value of the cumulative distribution function or of the reliability function at given point a. Also one-sided tolerance limits for a two-parameter exponential distribution can be derived from the distribution of the variable Y. The results are also applied to the Pareto distribution.     

Historical legacies, nationalist mobilization, and political outcomes in Russia and Serbia: A Weberian view

Conclusion In the preceding analysis, I attempt to demonstrate the usefulness of some of Weber's key theoretical ideas on nations, nationalism, and imperialism by way of a comparative examination of contemporary Russian and Serbian nationalism. More specifically, I try to show how long-term historical and institutional legacies, shared memories, and defining political experiences, played themselves out in the contemporary period, influencing the different availability of mass constituencies in Russia and Serbia for nationalist mobilization under the auspices of new empire-saving coalitions.But political outcomes are never wholly pre-determined as historical legacies are subject to different cultural interpretations and political contest. To put it simply, nationalism is made and remade by politicians and ideologists; and there is no need to gloss over the frequently bloody and unpredictable consequences of their struggles with unduly abstract sociological generalizations. Instead, we should theorize our narratives, while giving contingency its place.I suggest that the presence of a highly symbolic issue (such as the World War Two experiences of Serbs in Croatia, the mythology of Kosovo, Sevastopol or the mythology of the Russian fleet), which touches on the core historical mythology of one nation, but is contested by another on different grounds (demographic, ethnic, or for reasons of historical justice, for example) increases the likelihood of national conflicts. Once highly symbolic issues are involved, national conflicts quickly assume the form of struggles over ultimate values not subject to compromise and conflict-regulation. However, as the Russian case demonstrates, other symbolic legacies (the experience of Stalinism) might be powerful enough to override nationalism.I also suggest in this article a few simple ways in which we can interpret, and possibly, test the likelihood of the emergency of national conflicts: the significance of prestige considerations, the absence of compensatory mechanisms such as economic prosperity, the egalitarian character of nationalist appeals, the dynamic of status-reversal, and the theory of the superimposition of conflicts. To understand the exclusivist overtones of much of contemporary nationalism in the former Soviet Union and Eastern Europe, however, it would also be necessary to pay more attention to the political-cultural and social-structural legacy of Communist rule. The prevalence of uncompromising stances among political leaders, the absence of mechanisms of conflict-regulation, the hostility to proceduralism and legal mechanisms as a means of resolving the emerging national questions, and the appeal of the new nationalism to state-dependent and traditionalist strata are among the most important elements of this legacy.     

Estimation of symmetric disagreement using a uniform association model for ordinal agreement data

The Cohen kappa is probably the most widely used measure of agreement. Measuring the degree of agreement or disagreement in square contingency tables by two raters is mostly of interest. Modeling the agreement provides more information on the pattern of the agreement rather than summarizing the agreement by kappa coefficient. Additionally, the disagreement models in the literature they mentioned are proposed for the nominal scales. Disagreement and uniform association models are aggregated as a new model for the ordinal scale agreement data, thus in this paper, symmetric disagreement plus uniform association model that aims separating the association from the disagreement is proposed. Proposed model is applied to real uterine cancer data.     

Terminological databanks as the bodies of knowledge: Slovenian public relations terminology

The aim of the research project Terminology Databanks as the Bodies of Knowledge: The Model for the Systematisation of Terminologies is to compile a dictionary of Slovenian public relations, with 2000 entries. The terms will be explained and translated into English, with typical context, examples. From July 2013, the dictionary will be publicly available on www.termania.net.     

Stability and Change in Kindergartners' Friendships: Examination of Links with Social Functioning

Stability and change in kindergartners' friendships were examined based on a typology of profiles (stable, fluid, loss, gain, friendless). Our purpose was to determine whether children belonging to the five profiles differed in their social functioning. The sample was composed of 2353 kindergartners. Reciprocal friendships and social functioning indices were measured using peer nominations collected in October and May of the same year. A series of repeated measures analysis of variance indicated that children in the friendless profile were less accepted by their peers, more shy, more withdrawn, and more aggressive than other children. Moreover, children in the stable profile were significantly more accepted by their peers, more prosocial, and less shy than children in the fluid profile. Lastly, children in the loss profile became less accepted by their peers and less prosocial over the course of the year whereas children in the gain profile became more accepted and prosocial.     

On tail index estimation based on multivariate data

This article is devoted to the study of tail index estimation based on i.i.d. multivariate observations, drawn from a standard heavy-tailed distribution, that is, of which Pareto-like marginals share the same tail index. A multivariate central limit theorem for a random vector, whose components correspond to (possibly dependent) Hill estimators of the common tail index α, is established under mild conditions. We introduce the concept of (standard) heavy-tailed random vector of tail index α and show how this limit result can be used in order to build an estimator of α with small asymptotic mean squared error, through a proper convex linear combination of the coordinates. Beyond asymptotic results, simulation experiments illustrating the relevance of the approach promoted are also presented.     

Bootstrap Prediction Intervals for Factor Models

We propose bootstrap prediction intervals for an observation h periods into the future and its conditional mean. We assume that these forecasts are made using a set of factors extracted from a large panel of variables. Because we treat these factors as latent, our forecasts depend both on estimated factors and estimated regression coefficients. Under regularity conditions, asymptotic intervals have been shown to be valid under Gaussianity of the innovations. The bootstrap allows us to relax this assumption and to construct valid prediction intervals under more general conditions. Moreover, even under Gaussianity, the bootstrap leads to more accurate intervals in cases where the cross-sectional dimension is relatively small as it reduces the bias of the ordinary least-squares (OLS) estimator.