Alerts and catastrophes: The case of the 1999 storm in France,a treacherous risk

How is it that catastrophes always seem predictable ex post but never ex ante? The paradox is recurrent. Our study of the warnings issued prior to one of the last major natural disasters in France – the tempest of December 27, 1999 – focuses on the organizational factors accounting for the surprise effect of the catastrophe, to try and understand why, though the phenomenon had been predicted and announced by the French weather bureau, the protagonists of Civil Defense said the magnitude of the event took them by surprise. A multi-level, qualitative analysis of the inter-organizational meteorological alert system shows that a combination of factors pertaining to structure, context and individuals transformed the warnings into routine messages. The case of the 1999 storm allows us to introduce a particular, ideal-type of risk, the treacherous risk, which, though clearly announced, was disregarded because seemingly so familiar.     

家庭农场发展的影响因素及对策——基于SWOT模型的实证研究

在对河南省舞钢市21个家庭农场进行实证调查的基础上,以SWOT为分析模型,分别对影响家庭农场发展的内部优势、内部劣势、外部机遇和外部威胁进行统筹分析,认为家庭农场发展目前仍处在"幼年"阶段,面临诸多"成长的烦恼",探索合理的发展策略尤为重要。并在此基础上提出包括:土地流转、多元化服务、信贷扶持、保险引导、建立健全农业社会化服务体系以及创优品牌诸方面在内的提升家庭农场发展的6项战略对策。     

Evaluating the Move to a Linear Tax System in Germany and Other European Countries

This paper proposes a comparison of the results of tax policy analysis obtained on the basis of unitary and collective representations of the household. We first generate labour supplies consistent with the collective rationality, by use of a model calibrated on microdata as described in Vermeulen et al. [Collective Models of Household Labor Supply with Nonconvex Budget Sets and Nonparticipation: A Calibration Approach (2006)]. A unitary model is then estimated on these collective data and unitary and collective responses to a tax reform are compared. We focus on the introduction of linear taxation in Germany. The exercise is replicated for other European countries and other topical reforms. Distortions due to the use of a unitary model turn out to be important in predicting labour supply adjustments, in the design of tax revenue neutral reforms, and in predicting a reform’s welfare implications.

Life Satisfaction in Brazil: Testing the Psychometric Properties of the Satisfaction With Life Scale (SWLS) in Five Brazilian Samples

The aim of this paper was to validate the Brazilian-Portuguese version of the Satisfaction With Life Scale (SWLS), presenting evidence of its reliability and construct and criterion-related validity. A large Brazilian sample (2,180 participants), from five different populations (undergraduate and high school students, general population, elementary school teachers, and physicians), was considered. The results confirmed the single factorial structure and reliability (0.77 < Cronbach’s α < 0.88, mean α = 0.81) of the SWLS. Supporting its criterion-related validity, the SWLS correlated positively with positive affect and negatively with both negative affect and psychological distress across all five samples. The findings indicate that the Brazilian-Portuguese version of the SWLS is a valid instrument to use with diverse Brazilian samples.     

Population Growth and the Local Provision of Services: The Role of Primary Schools in Portugal

Population Research and Policy Review - The shrinking population in many European regions has led to a debate on the relation between the local provision of services of general interest and the...     

Increasing women's contribution on board decision making: The importance of chairperson leadership efficacy and board openness

In the last decade, the number of women on corporate boards has increased slightly, but the prevailing minority status of women directors implies that they will continue to face social barriers. While prior research has largely focused on explaining social barriers (e.g., being categorized as an out-group member) to increase diversity and its negative consequences, how boards can avoid these obstacles remains unclear. Stemming from recategorization theory, we examine whether and to what extent board chairperson leadership efficacy and board openness (as mechanisms to avoid out-group bias) enhance the influence of women when they are in the minority in board decision-making. In a sample of 146 Norwegian firms, we found a positive relationship between women minorities and women directors’ contribution to board decision-making. Moreover, we found that this positive impact increases when the board chairperson exercises leadership and the board operates in an atmosphere of openness.