Ordered ranked set samples and applications to inference

Ranked set sampling (RSS) was first proposed by McIntyre [1952. A method for unbiased selective sampling, using ranked sets. Australian J. Agricultural Res. 3, 385–390] as an effective way to estimate the unknown population mean. Chuiv and Sinha [1998. On some aspects of ranked set sampling in parametric estimation. In: Balakrishnan, N., Rao, C.R. (Eds.), Handbook of Statistics, vol. 17. Elsevier, Amsterdam, pp. 337–377] and Chen et al. [2004. Ranked Set Sampling—Theory and Application. Lecture Notes in Statistics, vol. 176. Springer, New York] have provided excellent surveys of RSS and various inferential results based on RSS. In this paper, we use the idea of order statistics from independent and non-identically distributed (INID) random variables to propose ordered ranked set sampling (ORSS) and then develop optimal linear inference based on ORSS. We determine the best linear unbiased estimators based on ORSS (BLUE-ORSS) and show that they are more efficient than BLUE-RSS for the two-parameter exponential, normal and logistic distributions. Although this is not the case for the one-parameter exponential distribution, the relative efficiency of the BLUE-ORSS (to BLUE-RSS) is very close to 1. Furthermore, we compare both BLUE-ORSS and BLUE-RSS with the BLUE based on order statistics from a simple random sample (BLUE-OS). We show that BLUE-ORSS is uniformly better than BLUE-OS, while BLUE-RSS is not as efficient as BLUE-OS for small sample sizes (n<5$n<5$).     

Statistical inference for start-up demonstration tests with rejection of units upon observing d failures

In this paper, we consider the statistical inference for the success probability in the case of start-up demonstration tests in which rejection of units is possible when a pre-fixed number of failures is observed before the required number of consecutive successes are achieved for acceptance of the unit. Since the expected value of the stopping time is not a monotone function of the unknown parameter, the method of moments is not useful in this situation. Therefore, we discuss two estimation methods for the success probability: (1) the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) via the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm and (2) Bayesian estimation with a beta prior. We examine the small-sample properties of the MLE and Bayesian estimator. Finally, we present an example to illustrate the method of inference discussed here.     

The Relationship between Economic Development and Social Welfare: A New Adjusted GDP Measure of Welfare

Existing literature focuses on the issue ofpreparation of social welfare measurements onthe basis of an unadjusted Gross DomesticProduct (GDP). This paper extends this methodto incorporate cost-benefit analysis ofeconomic growth in a growing economy incalculating the adjusted GDP, termed as thecost-benefit (CB)-adjusted GDP. This approachis empirically applied to Thailand. There arestark differences between GDP per capita and CBadjusted GDP per capita rates for this period.This paper concludes that GDP can be used as anindicator of social welfare if the GDPestimates are undertaken within a cost-benefitanalysis framework.     

On indices of marginal and total production cost

In this paper we suggest cost indices that measure absolute changes in total and marginal production costs between two periods when factor prices change. The class of cost functions that generate equal total and marginal cost indices is characterized. A numerical illustration of the indices is provided using Indian cotton textile industry data.     

After the highwayman: Syntax and successful placement of press releases in newspapers

This study proves once again that too many press releases are poorly written and over-written, with long sentences and paragraphs, and poor syntax as well as weak and passive construction. In their use of press releases, journalists almost always have to make them simpler, shorter, easier to read, and less passive.The authors conclude that success in writing of press releases requires brevity and simplicity, shorter paragraphs, sentences, and words, and the elimination of the passive voice.Timothy Walters is an assistant professor of communication at Stephen F. Austin State University in Nacogdoches, TX. Lynne Walters is associate professor of journalism and Douglas Starr professor of journalism, both at Texas A&M University, College Station. Lynne Walters is currently a Fulbright professor at the American Journalism Center in Budapest, where her husband Timothy is also on a one-year appointment as a visiting professor.     

World and regional labour force trends and prospects

Changes in fertility during 1970-1985 will not have any effect on the composition of the world work force until 1985 because the people who will be of working age at that time have already been born. However, fertility for this period will directly influence the size of the age group 15-30 in the year 2000. Moreover, fertility trends for this period will have an indirect effect on participation of women in the labor force. The number of people in the labor force has proportionately followed total population. Just as total population is projected to increase in the single decade 1970-1980 by an amount equal to its size in 1750, so the labor force will increase by 360 million during the 1980's (its original size in 1750). By the end of the present century the world labor force may well number some 2,6000 million, reaching 3,000 million by the year 2010; 4,000 million by 2030; 5,000 million by 2070; and stabilizing at about 5,200 million by the end of the 21st century. There will be great regional variations. Increases will range from 20-35% in Europe and the U.S.S.R. to 100-120% in South Asia, Africa, and Latin America. For East Asia and North America the increases may amount to 60% by the year 2000 and 100% by 2050. In 1970 less developed regions had 2/3 the world's labor force; by 2000 they will have 3/4. In 1970 about 20% of the labor force in more developed regions were working in agriculture while in less developed regions 2/3 were so engaged. In other terms, in more developed regions 10 farmers supported 108 persons while in less developed regions 10 farmers supported only 38. According to Food and Agriculture Organization projections, by 2000 only 3.5% of the labor force in developed regions and 43.5% in less developed regions will be in agriculture. Differences in gross national product between regions is striking. In 1970 the less developed regions contained 70% of world population, 67% of the world labor force, 87% of the world agricultural labor, and produced 15% of its wealth. There are also sharp contrasts in participation in the labor force. In less developed countries more youths and older persons are in the labor force while in developed countries more women work. By the year 2000 female activity rates in more developed regions will increase for ages 20-64 and decrease for those under 20 and over 64. This will raise female participation in the labor force to 35%. In less developed regions female participation is expected to decline. The proportion of young workers is expected to increase in less developed and decline in more developed regions; the same will be true for older workers. The dependency burden will be concentrated among the young in less developed nations; in more devel oped regions there will be larger numbers of older dependents.     

Rationality and Freedom: Weber and Beyond*

In the tradition of German social thought from Kant and Hegel through Toennies and Simmel, the development of rationality in modern Europe is associated with an increase of human freedom. Weber's work departs from that tradition by providing an incomparably differentiated framework for the analysis of rationality and by associating modern European rationalization with a curtailment of freedom. More careful examination of Weber's oeuvre, however, indicates that he, too, connected rationalization with the growth of freedom in many respects. His amended argument remains valuable today, although ways in which it stands to be improved by incorporating subsequent analyses are suggested.     

Education's Effects on Psychological Well-Being

Data from the 1973–1978 General Social Surveys were usedto estimate, by means of multiple regression analysis, the effectsof years of school completed on eight dimensions of psychologicalwell-being for white men, white women, black men, and blackwomen. Estimates are provided of total effects, effects netof socioeconomic variables, and effects net of socioeconomicvariables, family situation, and frequency of attendance ofreligious services. There is little evidence for negative effects,the only statistically significant negative coefficient beingthat for satisfaction with community among white men. Thereis some evidence that education has positive effects on psychologicalwell-being in all subpopulalions except black men, the strongestevidence being for white women. Dummy variable regression estimatesof the effects of different increments of education indicategreater effects from four years of high school than from fouryears of college. There is tentative evidence that mothers'education may have an important positive effect on their offspring'spsychological well-being. . The data reported here are from the 1973–1978 GeneralSocial Surveys conducted by the National Opinion Research Center(James A. Davis, principal investigator) with funds from theNational Science Foundation. The authors are solely responsiblefor the analyses and interpretations presented here. The dataset was obtained from the Roper Center at the University ofConnecticut. We are indebted to the management of the San AntonioCollege Computer Center for providing computer time for thisproject.