Evidence maps: communicating risk assessments in societal controversies: the case of engineered nanoparticles

The transparent and fair characterization of scientific evidence for reporting the results of a hazard assessment is a demanding task. In this article, we present an approach for characterizing evidence--the evidence map approach. The theoretical starting point is to view evidence characterization as a form of argumentation. Thus, evidence maps are designed to depict the evidence base, the pro and con arguments, and the remaining uncertainties, which together lead experts to their conclusions when summarizing and evaluating the scientific evidence about a potential hazard. To illustrate its use, the evidence maps approach is applied to characterizing the health-relevant effects of engineered nanoparticles. Empirical data from an online survey suggests that the use of evidence maps improves the reporting of hazard assessments. Nonexperts prefer to receive the information included in an evidence map in order to come to an informed judgment. Furthermore, the benefits and limitations of evidence maps are discussed in the light of recent literature on risk communication. Finally, the article underlines the need for further research in order to increase quality of evidence reporting.     

Synergistic effect of social support and self-efficacy on physical exercise in older adults

The purpose of the current study was to examine whether the effects of social support on physical exercise in older adults depend on individual perceptions of self-efficacy. Three hundred nine older German adults (age 65-85) were assessed at 3 points in time (3 months apart). In hierarchical-regression analyses, support received from friends and exercise self-efficacy were specified as predictors of exercise frequency while baseline exercise, sex, age, and physical functioning were controlled for. Besides main effects of self-efficacy and social support, an interaction between social support and self-efficacy emerged. People with low self-efficacy were less likely to be active in spite of having social support. People with low support were less likely to be active even if they were high in self-efficacy. This points to the importance of both social support and self-efficacy and implies that these resources could be targets of interventions to increase older adults' exercise.     

On Development,Demography and Climate Change: The End of the World as We Know it?

This paper comments on the issue of global warming and climate change, in an attempt to provide fresh perspective. Essentially, five main arguments are made. First, that the process of modern economic development has been based on the burning of fossil fuels, and that this will continue to apply for the foreseeable future. Second, that in large part due to momentum in economic and demographic processes, it is inevitable that there will be a major rise in atmospheric CO₂ during the present century. Third, that available data on global temperatures suggest strongly that the coming warming will be appreciably faster than anything that humanity has experienced during historical times. Moreover, especially in a system that is being forced, the chance of an abrupt change in climate happening must be rated as fair. Fourth, that while it is impossible to attach precise probabilities to different scenarios, the range of plausible unpleasant climate outcomes seems at least as great as the range of more manageable ones. The consequences of future climate change may be considerable; indeed, they could be almost inconceivable—with several negative changes occurring simultaneously and to cumulative adverse effect. There is an urgent need to improve ways of thinking about what could happen. Fifth, the paper maintains that the human response to other difficult ‘long’ threats—such as that posed by HIV/AIDS—reveals a broadly analogous sequence of social reactions (e.g. denial, avoidance, recrimination) to that which is unfolding with respect to carbon emissions and climate change. Therefore the view expressed here is that major behavioral change to limit world carbon emissions is unlikely in the foreseeable future, and that the broad sway of future events is probably now set to run its course.This paper is a personal assessment of what is occurring with respect to the subject of global warming and climate change. Nevertheless it is an attempt to examine the topic objectively. The paper tries to concentrate on the essentials—from both the social and the environmental sciences—and, quite deliberately, it presents basic data on the subject for the reader's own consideration. The paper's subtitle is taken from a television program broadcast in January 2005 as part of UK Channel Four's War on Terra season. I thank Tim Forsyth, Chris Wilson, and especially Brian O'Neill for their help and advice. However, and most certainly, the usual disclaimer applies.     

Empowerment von chirurgischen PatientInnen — Modelle, Interventionen, Effekte, Erfolgsbedingungen

Empowerment of patients is an important strategy in Health Promotion. Recent discussions within this context stress the relevance of the improvement of health literacy and health behaviour of patients for the improvement of health status. Communication between patients and professionals is emphasised as a main tool and quality factor. In the framework of a model project subsidised by the Austrian Federal Ministry of Social Security and Generations three Austrian Hospitals implemented and evaluated interventions to improve the quality of communication between hospital staff and patients for the improvement of patient information and co-production of health in the care process. Effects of interventions were evaluated in a before-and-after study (baseline n = 257 patients: 113 general surgery, 100 cardiac surgery, 44 thorax surgery; evaluation n = 208 patients: 63 general surgery, 99 cardiac surgery, 46 thorax surgery) with data from a patient questionnaire (satisfaction with care and communication, self reported health status) and documentation of post-surgical health outcome (complications, length of stay in hospital) and by measuring self reported improvement of health literacy and health behaviour of patients after the intervention. Results show that improvement of communication has effects on patient satisfaction as well as on postsurgical health outcome. Especially in cardiac surgery, where communication with patients was improved by interventions covering the whole inpatient care process from admission to discharge, a considerable increase of patient satisfaction and a decrease of postsurgical complications can be reported.     

The Cultural Orientations of Entrepreneurs and Employees’ Job Satisfaction: The Turkish Small and Medium Sized Enterprises (SMEs) Case

The primary purpose of this study was to determine whether cultural orientations which were pervasive and salient in the society of SMEs’ entrepreneurs predict employees’ job satisfaction. Paternalism, collectivism, individualism, power distance, uncertainty avoidance were assessed as pervasive and salient attributes for Turkish society. Data were gathered from 217 male SMEs entrepreneurs and 1140 employees. The cultural orientations scales together with some questions related to the firms and demographics, and job diagnostic index (JDI) with demographical questions were applied to entrepreneurs and employees, respectively. The findings of this study revealed that paternalism, collectivism and power distance predicted employee job satisfaction significantly. It was argued that the congruency between entrepreneurs’ cultural orientations and employees’ cultural background and expectations, which was shaped by the organizational socialization process, might lead these results.     

Vertical Integration under Competition: Forward,Backward, or No Integration?

We consider two competing supply chains, each consisting of supplier, a manufacturer, and a retailer. The suppliers exert effort to improve product quality, and the retailers sell products competitively. Each manufacturer chooses one of the three strategies: forward integration, backward integration, or no vertical integration. We seek for a subgame perfect Nash equilibrium and study the resulting market structure. Moreover, we characterize the effect of vertical integration on profitability, product price, and quality in a competitive setting. Existing literature has shown that, when manufacturers consider only forward integration, they may choose not to vertically integrate in equilibrium. In contrast, we find that, when both forward and backward integration options are considered, disintegration cannot be an equilibrium outcome. In this case, both manufacturers either forward or backward integrate, and the degree of product perishability, cost of quality, and how much consumers value quality are critical for the chosen direction of integration. Furthermore, competition increases attractiveness of backward integration relative to forward integration. We show that, while integrating backward unilaterally is always beneficial, unilateral forward integration can harm a manufacturer's profitability. Finally, vertical integration can result in a better quality product sold at a lower price.     

Epistemological problems and the personality and social system in social psychology

If we understand social psychology to be an area where sociology and psychology overlap, or more precisely where we try to explain interaction on the basis of psychological and sociological propositions and concepts, we have singled out a field that should be quite challenging not only in theory and method but in the fundamental questions it raises for both sociology and psychology. Actually, the discipline is not that well integrated and is constituted by such disparate approaches as reinforcement theory, field theory, role theory, small group theory, game theory and psychoanalysis. Many sociologists have abandoned the field altogether. Nor have the proponents of these sub-fields made much effort to consolidate, integrate or reconcile their methodologies. Epistemological questions have been notably absent and only now have arguments from the philosophy of science point of view reemerged to revive the critical and potentially fruitful methodological discussions of earlier theorists (F. Allport; Lewin; Mead; Simmel) and their more recent followers (Homans; Malewski). After considering epistemological problems dealing with the generality of theory and explanation, behavioristic vs. action approaches, operational and model structural implications, we want to argue for a better understanding of social system variables besides those of the personality system and of system theory in general. In our discussion we use examples from the area of sport because it composes a complex system, that is not too difficult to observe at the same time that it shows in relative clarity all of the different levels of an action system. It has, furthermore, many features of an almost experimental design in a natural field. In so far it is a model area to allow due consideration for our demand that social psychology rediscover the method of field studies. This will help to reverse the trend characterized by a general neglect of theory that has resulted from behavioral dogmatism and the expedience of research pragmatism based mostly on two-variable linear models. This is not to say that we disfavor rigorous research design and data analysis - to the contrary. We just want it to be done in the context of broader theoretical concerns and in clear recognition of the pitfalls of operationalism and the merits of action theory.     

Analyzing disaster risks and plans: An avian flu example

Narrative approaches to analyzing risks seek to identify the variables critical to creating and controlling a risk, then to instantiate them in terms of coherent themes (e.g., organizational failure, strategic surprise). Computational approaches to analyzing risks seek to identify the same critical variables, then to instantiate them in terms of their probability. Disaster risk analysis faces complex, novel processes that strain the capabilities of both approaches. We propose an approach that integrates elements of each, relying on what we call structured scenarios and computable models. It is illustrated by framing the analysis of plans for a possible avian flu pandemic.     

Estimating models based on Markov jump processes given fragmented observation series

We consider the problem of estimating the rate matrix governing a finite-state Markov jump process given a number of fragmented time series. We propose to concatenate the observed series and to employ the emerging non-Markov process for estimation. We describe the bias arising if standard methods for Markov processes are used for the concatenated process, and provide a post-processing method to correct for this bias. This method applies to discrete-time Markov chains and to more general models based on Markov jump processes where the underlying state process is not observed directly. This is demonstrated in detail for a Markov switching model. We provide applications to simulated time series and to financial market data, where estimators resulting from maximum likelihood methods and Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling are improved using the presented correction.     

More on the distribution of the sum of uniform random variables

The paper provides a simplified derivation of the density of the sum of independent non-identically distributed uniform random variables via an inverse Fourier transform. We also provide examples illustrating the quality of the Normal approximation and corresponding MATHEMATICA code.