Does Demographic Transition with Human Capital Dynamics Matter for Economic Growth? A Dynamic Panel Data Approach to GMM

Social Indicators Research - This study seeks to empirically investigate whether demographic transition with dynamics of human capital matters for economic growth for a representative sample of...     

Does the Minimum Wage Bite into Fast-Food Prices?

We study the effect of increases in effective minimum wages on the prices of several fast-food items using quarterly city-level data from 1993–2014, a period during much of which the federal minimum wage declined in real value while state-level legislation flourished. For one product, a burger, we find a robust price elasticity of 9 % with respect to the minimum wage. This estimate indicates substantial cost pass-through when contextualized by the effect of minimum-wage increases on restaurant wage bills. Our estimate for pizza is suggestive of a similarly large pass-through rate but is less precisely estimated, and our estimate for fried chicken is near zero, but estimated even less precisely. Taken as a whole, our estimates point toward sizable cost pass-through of minimum wage increases to consumer prices. These results contribute to a mixed literature on the consumer burden of minimum wage increases.     

Impact of Political Risk and Uncertainty on FDI in South Asia

This study examines the potential effect of political risk and macroeconomic policy uncertainty on FDI in South Asia. To highlight the affect of political risk and macro policy uncertainty on FDI, we setup a theoretical framework based on oligopolistic and imperfect competition environment in host country. Autoregressive distributed lags (ARDL) is used to examine the impact of political risk and macro economic policy uncertainty index on FDI inflows. Macroeconomic policy uncertainty and political risk indices are constructed for this purpose. The long run results show negative affect of political risk and macroeconomic policy uncertainty indices on FDI inflows. Trade openness shows positive effect on FDI inflows only in short run while in long run it has negative impact on due lack of creditability regarding consistent trade liberalization policy and high trade cost. Furthermore, the market size significantly affects the inflow of FDI both in long run and short run which shows that FDI inflows in South Asia are mainly depend on market size. South Asian economies need to focus on political and macroeconomic factors along with FDI incentives policies to attract more FDI.     

Application of data mining to minimize fire-induced domino effect risks

Data mining (DM) has been applied in many advanced science and technology fields, but it has still not been used for domino effect risk management to explore minimum risk scenarios. This work investigates the feasibility of DM in minimizing the risk of fire-induced domino effects in chemical processing facilities. Based on DM, an evidential failure mode and effects analysis (E-FMEA), which could bridge chemical facilities’ operational reliability and domino effect risk, is combined with fault tree analysis (FTA) for the occurrence risk modeling of loss of containment (LOC) event of chemical facilities, which is often the triggering point of fire-induced domino effects. Industry specific data such as reliability data, inspection records, and maintenance records are of great value to model the potential occurrence criticality of LOC. The data are used to characterize the LOC risk priority number (RPN) of chemical facilities through FTA and E-FMEA, search and statistics rules are proposed to mine inspection records to assess LOC risk factors. According to the RPN scores of facilities, inherent safety strategies to minimize risk via inventory control are proposed, and their effectiveness is tested using a well-known probit model. In this way, the approach proposes a unit-specific evidence-based risk minimization strategy for fire-induced domino effects. A case study demonstrates the capability of DM in the risk minimization of fire-induced domino effects.     

A mixed control chart for monitoring failure times under accelerated hybrid censoring

In an accelerated hybrid censoring scheme several stress factors can be accelerated to make the products to respond to fail more quickly than under normal operating conditions. In such situations, the control charts available in the literature cover the attribute characteristics only to monitor the performance of the process over time. This study extends the idea by proposing an optimal mixed attribute-variable control chart for Weibull distribution under an accelerated hybrid censoring scheme keeping the advantages of both attribute and variable control charts. It first monitors the number of defectives under accelerated conditions and switches to the variable control chart to investigate the mean failure times when the process stability is dubious. The performance of the proposed chart is evaluated by using run-length characteristics, and the optimality of the design parameter is achieved by minimizing the out-of-control average run length. The simulation study depicted better performance of the proposed control chart than the traditional charts in detecting shifts in the process. A real-life application is also included.KEYWORDS: Mixed control chart, attribute chart, variable chart, Weibull distribution, accelerated hybrid censoring     

Trade Dependence and Fertility in Hispanic America, 1950–1990

This paper explores Hout's (1980) conceptual model of the development–fertility relationship under trade dependency of Hispanic America, 1950–1990. The results of this study are that the effects of development and dependency on fertility are consistent with Hout's (1980) theory and his findings and that his positive development × dependency interaction term is not replicated. Thus, the well-known long-term negative effect of development might have been misspecified in Hout's model. In contrast to Hout's findings, our results based on all models support that as dependency increased, the long-term negative effect of development on fertility increased in magnitude for Hispanic America. Hence, the findings of this study suggest that the fertility transition for Hispanic America can occur based on an explanation that is alternative to what world system theorists' have so far offered.     

Son preference and the demand for additional children in pakistan

This paper tries to take into account the sequential element in fertility decisions and continues an investigation originally begun by Namboodiri. We examine the extent to which the “desire to have additional children” can be explained by a variety of economic, sociological, and demographic variables. The probit maximum likelihood estimation procedure is utilized, and the analysis is based on cross-sectional data on 2,910 currently married women obtained from a national survey conducted in Pakistan in 1968–1969. The principal finding is the presence of a strong son preference both for the husband and for the wife.     

On an exponential family

This paper considers a generalization of the exponential type distributions in the class of exponential families. A characterization and a method of generating an exponential family from a given family are given. In particular the generalized gamma, the generalized Poisson, the inverse Gaussian distributions belonging to this family are discussed. The approximations of the cumulative sums for the generalized gamma and the generalized Poisson by the Chi-square are considered. Some of the results are extended to the bivariate case.     

Forecasting demand for food in Libya—using confidence limits

Many developing countries are not self-sufficient in food production and they depend on food imports. In order to plan imports well in advance, the demand for food must be forecasted. If the forecasts are too low, the people suffer. On the other hand if the forecasts are too high—the food being a perishable commodity—resources of the country are wasted. The Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations (FAO) undertakes such forecasts occasionally. The FAO however links the food consumption to the income of a country and then just assume future income. Such forecasts have no scientific validity and could both fall short or be grossly excessive. In this study, the methodologies of Time Series and Regression Analysis are combined to avoid any guesses. Then confidence intervals are built so that it can be stated, e.g. with 95 per cent confidence that a nation will not eat more than the amount specified. A comparison of costs is made and it is shown that a country can save millions of dollars through the method of statistical confidence limits rather than by adding arbitrary quantities to means and averages. Finally savings possible in some other developing countries, by adopting the proposed method, are tabulated.