Post-crisis learning in public agencies: what do we learn from both actors and institutions?

Post-crisis learning is a challenge for public organizations, and especially for agencies which handle health and environmental risks. This article investigates how the Belgian Food Safety Agency settles mechanisms for drawing lessons from crises while ensuring day-to-day routine. The framework by Crozier and Friedberg is used as a guideline to consider both the actors and the system, both strategic games and institutional constraints. The article helps in understanding the institutional logics underpinning how the public organizations learn from societal risk and crisis. Centralization and openness appear to be guiding principles, resulting from the learning games. They also generate tensions that the actors’ games manage by defining new rules for cooperation. Both the practice (through our case study) and the theory (combining actors and institutions) broaden the lens of policy analysis for what policy-making at organizational level concerns.     

From Subsidiarity to 'Free Choice': Child- and Elder-care Policy Reforms in France, Belgium, Germany and the Netherlands

This article analyses the patterns of reform in care policies in Bismarckian welfare systems since the early 1980s. Based on a comparison of France, Germany, Belgium and the Netherlands, the article shows that these reforms share similar logics and trajectories, which can be explained by the shared conservative and corporatist traits of Bismarckian labour markets and welfare state institutions and their impact on labour market adjustment possibilities and preferences. Indeed, we argue that care policy reforms have been very closely linked to specific employment strategies, and the politics of welfare without work and subsequent attempts to shift away from such a labour-shedding strategy go a long way in explaining both the nature and the timing of child- and elder-care policy reforms in Bismarckian welfare systems. The article also shows how a focus on promoting ‘free choice’ in all four countries has justified the introduction of measures that have simultaneously reinforced social stratification in terms of access to the labour market – meaning that some women have much more ‘free choice’ than others – and weakened certain labour market rigidities. To conclude, we argue that care policy reforms have provided a backdoor for the introduction of labour-cheapening measures and for increasing employment flexibility in otherwise very rigid labour markets.     

The role of urban indicators in city management: a proposal for Croatian cities

Cities are dynamic economic and social structures that play a dominant role in both national and international economies. They are centers of population, production, consumption, and development. Cities utilize all advantages of economy of scale, proximity, and concentration. On the other hand, they produce high environmental pressures and diminish thereby the quality of life for urban residents. Indicators (environmental, economic, and governance and management) are seen as a tool that would help policy-makers in formulating urban policy that would lead cities towards sustainability and provide assistance for monitoring their development and municipal performance. The aim of this paper is to consider the role that urban indicators can play in city management. We present basic features of urban indicators that will determine their usefulness in urban management. This paper provides the framework to include environmental and economic indicators, as well as governance and management indicators, in successful urban management.     

Age, Health and the Willingness to Pay for Mortality Risk Reductions: A Contingent Valuation Survey of Ontario Residents

We present the results of a contingent valuation survey eliciting willingness to pay (WTP) for mortality risk reductions. The survey was self-administered using a computer by 930 persons in Hamilton Ontario aged 40 to 75. Visual and audio aides were used to enhance risk comprehension. Mean WTP figures for a contemporaneous risk reduction imply a value of a statistical life of approximately C$l.2 to C$3.8 million (1999 C$). Mean WTP is constant with age up to 70 years, and is about 30 percent lower for persons aged 70 and older. WTP is unaffected by physical health status, but is affected by mental health.     

Is Probability Weighting Sensitive to the Magnitude of Consequences? An Experimental Investigation on Losses

Experimental investigations of the probability weighting function over losses are scarce and all involve small payoffs. The paper aims to give new insight into the probability weighting function for losses, by eliciting it through a simple two-stage semi-parametric procedure over more realistic losses, and by investigating its sensitivity to the magnitude of the payoffs. Current data confirm previous evidence of convex utility functions and inverse-S-shaped weighting functions. Still, at least for small probabilities, probability weighting appears to be affected by the size of consequences: the larger the losses, the more aversive the gambles and the more pessimistic the subjects are.     

Reassessing the Insurance Effect: A Qualitative Analysis of Fertility Behavior in Senegal and Zimbabwe

A number of prominent demographers have recently reiterated the argument that a lasting mortality decline is a key determinant of the fertility transition. Of the main hypothesized pathways linking fertility to mortality, the one least studied is the insurance hypothesis: the notion that, in high‐mortality contexts, people decide to have more children in order to anticipate possible future child deaths and lessen the risks of having too few surviving offspring. In‐depth interviews and focus groups from Zimbabwe and Senegal are used to examine this hypothesis and to extend it into a broader theory of reproductive decision making under uncertainty. Whereas insurance strategies are frequent in Zimbabwe and occur in urban Senegal, in the higher‐mortality settings—the rural Senegalese site and the recent past described by respondents in Zimbabwe and urban Senegal—deliberate fertility‐limitation strategies are rare. The data depict fundamental changes in attitudes, strategies, and behaviors concerning family size over time and, in Senegal, over space. Important reproductive goals and risks extend far beyond numbers of children and mortality. Parents seek to have healthy, successful children for many reasons including companionship, descendants, and old‐age support. Diverse investments in child quality (their education, health, etc.) and quantity (numbers of births) are the main means to attain these goals and, less recognized by demographers, are also important ways for parents to manage uncertainty in family‐building outcomes; the “classic” insurance mechanism is only one, often minor, aspect of the quantity option.     

From the hidden welfare state to the hidden part of welfare state reform: Analyzing the uses and effects of fiscal welfare in France

This article argues that fiscal welfare in Europe not only forms part of the “hidden welfare state” (Howard, 1997 ), but also constitutes an important yet understudied—and therefore hidden—element of welfare state reform. Using the example of France, and relying both on available data and on an exhaustive database of social tax expenditures (STEs) compiled for 2014, the article begins by providing an overview of the structure of STEs in France (section 2 ). It then analyzes the specific uses and effects of STEs in the fields of employment, health care, and pensions. In particular, it shows, first of all, how STEs have constituted a privileged instrument for circumventing certain institutional features such as high levels of minimum wage and of social security contributions in the field of employment (section 3 ). Second, it also shows that STEs have been used to quietly divert resources away from the earmarked social security funds and into collective private insurance funds, thus fueling their development, in the case of health care and pensions (section 4 ). Lastly, the article engages with the notion of the “social division of welfare” (Titmuss, 1958 ) by considering some of the distributional effects of fiscal welfare in France (section 5 ), before concluding (section 6 ).     

An Objective Bayesian Criterion to Determine Model Prior Probabilities

We discuss the problem of selecting among alternative parametric models within the Bayesian framework. For model selection problems, which involve non‐nested models, the common objective choice of a prior on the model space is the uniform distribution. The same applies to situations where the models are nested. It is our contention that assigning equal prior probability to each model is over simplistic. Consequently, we introduce a novel approach to objectively determine model prior probabilities, conditionally, on the choice of priors for the parameters of the models. The idea is based on the notion of the worth of having each model within the selection process. At the heart of the procedure is the measure of this worth using the Kullback–Leibler divergence between densities from different models.     

The Social Ecology of Early Childhood: Preschool Social Support Networks and Social Acceptance

The focus of this study was on the social networks of preschool children and on the interface between network characteristics and the child's acceptance by peers and teachers. Fifty-six children and their mothers were interviewed about the child's social support network. Social acceptance measures included peer sociometric ratings and teacher ratings of child preference and relationship quality. Frequency of contact with mother-nominated child network members was a determining factors in the concordance of mother and child reports. From the child's perspective, social acceptance was related to the presence and supportiveness of siblings and extended kin. Mother reports were less predictive, with only one significant association between parental support and teacher preference. In general, the children's perceptions regarding the structure and function of their social networks were found to be reliable and to relate meaningfully to social acceptance in the preschool domain.     

A Micro-Level Event-Centered Approach to Investigating Armed Conflict and Population Responses

In this article, we construct and test a micro-level event-centered approach to the study of armed conflict and behavioral responses in the general population. Event-centered approaches have been successfully used in the macro-political study of armed conflict but have not yet been adopted in micro-behavioral studies. The micro-level event-centered approach that we advocate here includes decomposition of a conflict into discrete political and violent events, examination of the mechanisms through which they affect behavior, and consideration of differential risks within the population. We focus on two mechanisms: instability and threat of harm. We test this approach empirically in the context of the recent decade-long armed conflict in Nepal, using detailed measurements of conflict-related events and a longitudinal study of first migration, first marriage, and first contraceptive use. Results demonstrate that different conflict-related events independently shaped migration, marriage, and childbearing and that they can simultaneously influence behaviors in opposing directions. We find that violent events increased migration, but political events slowed migration. Both violent and political events increased marriage and contraceptive use net of migration. Overall, this micro-level event-centered approach yields a significant advance for the study of how armed conflict affects civilian behavioral responses.