The effect of child mortality experience on subsequent fertility: in Pakistan and Bangladesh

Summary This paper presents an empirical analysis of the effects, behavioural and biological, of child mortality experience on subsequent fertility in two South Asian Islamic nations. Data for the investigation came from retrospective pregnancy histories of 2,910 currently married women interviewed in the Pakistan National Impact Survey (1968-69) and from longitudinal vital registration data (1966-2070) of 5,236 women residing in a rural area of Bangladesh collected by the Cholera Research Laboratory. The aim of this study was to assess the importance of the child-replacement motivational response to child death experience after biological effects have been controlled adequately. A common approach employed previously has been to examine cumulative fertility according to child death experience. In Pakistan and Bangladesh, a consistently positive relationship was demonstrated between the number of children ever born and the number of child deaths. This method, however, did not exclude the inverse relationship, the influence of fertility on mortality, nor did it dissect out behavioural from biological effects. Utilizing a measure of subsequent fertility, live-birth-to-live-birth intervals, the study further illustrated another common pitfall. Since the risk of infant death, which leads to shorter birth intervals, is associated with the mother's reproductive history, women with child mortality experience are more likely to experience shorter intervals because of the biological effect of subsequent infant death. Behavioural influences may, therefore, be observed by considering only those birth intervals in which the first-born child survives to the end of the interval. With these limitations controlled, very few, if any, behavioural influences were noted in the Pakistan and Bangladesh data. Median birth intervals in Pakistan varied between 35-43 and 41-42 months, increasing with parity. Within each parity group, no consistent difference was observed between women with and without previous child loss. In Bangladesh, the median birth interval for all women with a surviving infant was 37-2 months. This was shortened to 24-31 months by an infant death. When intervals with infant deaths were excluded, little or no behavioural influence was detected among women of the same parity, but with varying levels of previous child loss. Even without behavioural effects, elimination of infant mortality in Bangladesh would reduce fertility by prolonging the average period of post-partum sterility. In the Bangladesh setting, however, the size of the effect was only about four per cent. This modest effect, more-over, was counterbalanced by an overall increase of net reproduction by seven per cent due to better survivorship of infants.     

Suicide prevention in Bangladesh: The current state and the way forward

Despite the World Health Organization's (WHO) call to adopt a national action plan on suicide, Bangladesh is yet to respond proactively to prevent this serious public health problem. The existing government and non‐government prevention interventions are very limited, segmented and almost invisible. Suicide (including attempted suicide) is currently a criminal offense under the Bangladeshi legal framework. The aim of this paper is to propose a framing toward a national suicide prevention action plan in Bangladesh based on a situational analysis of local existing suicide prevention interventions. International policy documents, empirical and review works, and legal documents that speak to suicide interventions were reviewed. Critical analysis of these interventions suggests that Bangladesh should prioritize the adoption of a multi‐sectoral suicide prevention action plan. The issue of decriminalization suicide should be carefully considered and policies harmonized before adopting the plan. Obtaining commitment from the policymakers to launch such intervention may be challenging. Considering the seriousness of the problem, Bangladeshi policymakers should be proactive in adopting a suicide prevention action plan. Neighboring countries provide useful lessons of the implementation measures that may assist with developing a suicide prevention action plan.     

Regime-specific impact of financial reforms on economic growth in Pakistan

This study uses and proposes a new methodological approach to construct a financial liberalization index on the basis of the dynamic factor model technique. The resulting index is used to investigate the impact of the financial sector reforms in Pakistan on economic growth. Using the Markov regime-switching model over the period 1972–2015, the empirical results showed that the examined relationship is nonlinear, nonmonotonic, state-dependent, and better described by the two-state Markov switching model characterized by the high growth regime and low growth regime. Despite the positive impact of financial liberalization on economic growth in both the high and low growth regimes, financial liberalization relatively strongly affects real GDP growth in the high growth regime. The results further demonstrate that transition probabilities establish an inordinate episode of the low growth regime. Furthermore, the high growth regime is relatively short-lived than the low growth regime. Among the other variables, trade openness and physical capital stock have a positive impact on economic growth, while labor force and government expenditure exert a negative effect on economic growth. Several economic policies are proposed and discussed for better functioning of financial sector development in Pakistan.     

Generalized geometric distribution of order k: A flexible choice to randomize the response

This article focuses on the improvement of a well-celebrated randomized response technique of Kuk. A generalized randomized response technique is suggested. In particular, the generalized geometric distribution of order k is introduced as a randomization device for estimating the population proportion of a rare sensitive attribute. The proposed randomized response technique includes Singh and Grewal and Hussain et al. techniques as its special cases. Through numerical illustrations, it is established that the suggested technique is superior to the Kuk, Singh and Grewal, and Hussain et al. techniques. Flexibility of the proposed technique is also discussed.     

Therapeutic Hypothermia: Quantification of the Transition of Core Body Temperature Using the Flexible Mixture Bent‐Cable Model for Longitudinal Data

Hypothermia which is induced by reducing core body temperature is a therapeutic tool used to prevent brain damage resulting from physical trauma. However, all physiological systems begin to slow down due to hypothermia and this can result in increased risk of mortality. Therefore quantification of the transition of core body temperature to early hypothermia is of great clinical interest. Conceptually core body temperature may exhibit an either gradual or abrupt transition. Bent‐cable regression is an appealing statistical tool to model such data due to the model's flexibility and readily interpretable regression coefficients. It handles more flexibly models that traditionally have been handled by low‐order polynomial models (for gradual transition) or piecewise linear changepoint models (for abrupt change). We consider a rat model to quantify the temporal trend of core body temperature primarily to address the question: What is the critical time point associated with a breakdown in the compensatory mechanisms following the start of hypothermia therapy? To this end, we develop a Bayesian modelling framework for bent‐cable regression of longitudinal data to simultaneously account for gradual and abrupt transitions. Our analysis reveals that: (i) about 39% of rats exhibit a gradual transition in core body temperature; (ii) the critical time point is approximately the same regardless of transition type; and (iii) both transition types show a significant increase of core body temperature followed by a significant decrease.     

On moments of dual generalized order statistics from Topp-Leone distribution

In this paper, we have derived exact and explicit expressions for the ratio and inverse moments of dual generalized order statistics from Topp-Leone distribution. This result includes the single and product moments of order statistics and lower records . Further, based on n dual generalized order statistics, we have deduced the expression for Maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) and Uniformly minimum variance unbiased estimator (UMVUE) for the shape parameter of Topp-Leone distribution. Finally, based on order statistics and lower records, a simulation study is being carried out to check the efficiency of these estimators.     

以EMME／2为平台估测温室气体的研究成果

京都协议已确认并应用战略战术措施来减少温室气的排放，因此，城市交通系统规划人员不得不寻求一种革新的方法来满足京都协议的要求。本文包括四部分：第一部分简要介绍了环境可持续的城市交通的概念，油耗，温室气体排放和京都协议的要求；第二部分描述了温室气体排放估测所需的方法，并指出了在实践中存在的缺陷，第三部分阐述了如何应用ＥＭＭＥ／２作为平台来估测室气体的排放；最后第四部分作了总结。