Durkheim and The Structure of Social Action*

The analysis of Durkheim in The Structure of Social Action is integral to Parsons's discussion of the utilitarian-positivist tradition and the emergence of a voluntaristic theory of action from it. The four “stages” of theoretical argument in Durkheim can be related directly to the four defining elements of the “utilitarian dilemma,” namely empiricism, rationality, atomism, and the randomness of ends. The most questionable aspect of Parsons's argument is the alleged stubbornness of Durkheim's empiricism. On the other hand, much of the criticism of Parsons's argument, by Pope in particular, although also by Scott and Warner, Is either misdirected or itself questionable. The development and conclusions of Durkheim's moral sociology are as Parsons claims, and form a viable basis for a non-positivist theory of action.     

Predicting the quality of life in the United States

A principal components analysis performed by David M. Smith on 47 U.S. state level indicators of social well-being yielded several components. The first two of these are socio-economic well-being and social pathology. Structural hypotheses are offered to explain state differences in these components. The structural variables condensed by a principal components analysis of state political, economic and social structure measures are differentiation, flexibility-rigidity, and progressive industrialization. These, along with several population measures, determine a substantial part of the variance in the two measures of social well-being.     

Prediction and Prevention of Child Abuse and Neglect

A high-risk population was successfully identified by the use of perinatal screening procedures. These children encountered significantly different parenting practices than the low-risk "control" group. There were also significant differences between "High-Risk" and "Low-Risk" families on issues concerning social adjustment and mother/infant attachment. Five children in a "High-Risk Nonintervene" group required hospitalization for serious injuries thought to be secondary to abnormal parenting practices. There were no such hospitalizations in either a High Risk Intervene group or a Low Risk group. Labordelivery observations, and postpartum interviews and observations provided the most accurate predictive information; prenatal interviews and questionnaires did not add significantly. Perinatal assessment and simple intervention with families at high risk for abnormal parenting practices significantly improves the infants' chances for escaping serious hospitalized physical injury.     

Predictive Inference and Scientific Reproducibility

ABSTRACT

Most statistical analyses use hypothesis tests or estimation about parameters to form inferential conclusions. I think this is noble, but misguided. The point of view expressed here is that observables are fundamental, and that the goal of statistical modeling should be to predict future observations, given the current data and other relevant information. Further, the prediction of future observables provides multiple advantages to practicing scientists, and to science in general. These include an interpretable numerical summary of a quantity of direct interest to current and future researchers, a calibrated prediction of what’s likely to happen in future experiments, a prediction that can be either “corroborated” or “refuted” through experimentation, and avoidance of inference about parameters; quantities that exists only as convenient indices of hypothetical distributions. Finally, the predictive probability of a future observable can be used as a standard for communicating the reliability of the current work, regardless of whether confirmatory experiments are conducted. Adoption of this paradigm would improve our rigor for scientific accuracy and reproducibility by shifting our focus from “finding differences” among hypothetical parameters to predicting observable events based on our current scientific understanding.     

THERAPIST PHYSICAL ATTRACTIVENESS: AN UNEXPLORED INFLUENCE ON CLIENT DISCLOSURE

Existing research indicates that clients perceive facially attractive therapists as more competent, trustworthy, genuine, and effective than less attractive therapists. No Studies exist to help explain how the therapist's attractiveness influences a client's self-disclosure. Participants (n = 241) were randomly assigned to one of eight experimental groups to test the interaction of the therapist's attractiveness, client's gender, the nature of presenting problem, and the client's comfort with disclosing in a hypothetical couple therapy scenario. Analysis of variance procedures established that most participants reported feeling more comfortable disclosing a benign (communications) problem than a potentially embarrassing (sexual) problem, and more comfortable disclosing problem to an attractive than to a less attractive female therapist. Therapists are encouraged to understand the power attractiveness may have in their own and their client's lives     

“刘易斯转折点”假象及其对“人口红利”释放的冲击

本文分析了当前普遍范围的用工荒是由于实际工资低于保留工资引起的农民工用脚投票结果。在此利用新家庭经济学单一模型理论分析这种经济行为是与简单单一个体预期效用最大化的经济行为相区别;农户以家庭为单位在金融资本及现代教育人力资本短缺的情况下通过家庭成员劳动力资本对外投资实施风险规避,在家庭内部实现收入分享,风险共担。这种经济行为带来的在工业制造和农业无法有效释放人口红利的结果,最终导致用工荒和环境负外部性以资本替代劳动的现代农业生产。