Do conditional cash transfers influence migration? A study using experimental data from the Mexican progresa program

Prior research on Mexican migration has shown that social networks and economic incentives play an important role in determining migration outcomes. We use experimental data from PROGRESA, Mexico's primary poverty-reduction program, to evaluate the effects of conditional cash transfers on migration both domestically and to the United States. Our study complements a growing body of literature aimed at overcoming longstanding hurdles to the establishment of causal validity in empirical studies of migration. Analysis based on the data collected before and after the program's onset shows that conditional transfers reduce U.S. migration but not domestic migration. The data also enable us to explore the role of existing family and community migration networks. The results show that migration networks strongly influence migration, but that the effect of conditional transfers on migration is apparently not mediated by existing migration network structures. Our results suggest that conditional transfers may be helpful in managing rural out-migration, particularly to the United States.     

ASYMMETRIC INFORMATION AND THE EXCESS VOLATILITY OF STOCK PRICES

Evidence suggests the volatility of stock prices cannot be accounted for by information about future dividends. We argue that some of the volatility of stock prices in excess of fundamentals results from fluctuations in the amount of public information over time. Our model assumes that dividends and consumption are constant in the aggregate but that there are good firms and bad firms whose identity may be unknown to the public, as in Akerlof's "lemons" problem. In that case, the collective valuation of the constant dividend stream depends on the degree of informational asymmetry.     

What Drives Citizen Participation in Political Gatherings in Modern South Africa? A Quantitative Analysis of Self-Reported Behaviour

Social Indicators Research - Community and public gatherings are an important component of political participation in sub-Saharan Africa. Formal and informal community meetings and rallies are...     

The Dodo Manifesto

In this article I review the psychotherapy outcomes literature as it pertains to the Dodo hypothesis. This is the proposition that the effects of psychotherapy are due to common factors rather than specific techniques. A variety of sources provide substantial empirical support for the Dodo hypothesis. I conclude that CBT and medication do not appear to be any better than other methodologies for the treatment of psychological distress. I look at some of the criticisms of the Dodo hypothesis. I suggest that the major themes that emerge from the literature as it stands are conclusions that would be immediately obvious to most clinicians. Further, the utility of specific techniques has not been ruled out, due to some serious conceptual flaws in efficacy trials. I suggest that there are a number of ways for family therapists to survive in an evidence‐based world. One is to point out to champions of evidence‐based practice just how flimsy their claims are. Another would be to advocate for pluralism and to practise and conduct research under the aegis of a contextual philosophy.     

Single Parent Adoptions: A Review

Single parent adoption is a new phenomenon in North America. Social workers will have to deal with this adoption issue at an increasing rate. This paper reviews the findings of existing studies relating to one-parent adoptions.     

WHY HOLD-UPS OCCUR: THE SELF-ENFORCING RANGE OF CONTRACTUAL RELATIONSHIPS

Court enforcement and private enforcement are not alternative contract enforcement mechanisms, but are used jointly by transactors to define the self-enforcing range of a contractual relationship. Within this framework contract terms economize on the limited amounts of private enforcement capital possessed by transactors, either by directly controlling transactor behavior or by shifting private enforcement capital between transactors to coincide with likely future market conditions. Hold-ups occur when market conditions change sufficiently to place the relationship outside the self-enforcing range. This probabilistic view of hold-ups is contrasted with opportunism more generally and with moral hazard behavior.