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91.
Recently, a technique based on pseudo‐observations has been proposed to tackle the so‐called convex hull problem for the empirical likelihood statistic. The resulting adjusted empirical likelihood also achieves the high‐order precision of the Bartlett correction. Nevertheless, the technique induces an upper bound on the resulting statistic that may lead, in certain circumstances, to worthless confidence regions equal to the whole parameter space. In this paper, we show that suitable pseudo‐observations can be deployed to make each element of the generalized power divergence family Bartlett‐correctable and released from the convex hull problem. Our approach is conceived to achieve this goal by means of two distinct sets of pseudo‐observations with different tasks. An important effect of our formulation is to provide a solution that permits to overcome the problem of the upper bound. The proposal, which effectiveness is confirmed by simulation results, gives back attractiveness to a broad class of statistics that potentially contains good alternatives to the empirical likelihood. 相似文献
92.
Energy sources and commodities exhibit high price risk. This risk is thus an important feature of operational models of the value chains for these goods. These models typically employ Gaussian‐based representations of the evolution of this uncertainty. This approach facilitates the optimization of operational policies but is at odds with empirical facts about energy and commodity prices, which are better captured by non‐Gaussian processes. We discuss this alternative modeling strategy, focusing on Lévy processes. As an illustration, we show that it substantially increases the optimal policy value in a simplified merchant natural gas storage setting. Further, we highlight potential implications of using this approach to formulate realistic energy and commodity operations models. Our work has broader relevance for modeling the dynamics of both other market variables and operational quantities, such as exchange rates and demand forecasts. The study of how the adoption of non‐Gaussian processes may impact energy and commodity operations is an appealing area for future research. 相似文献
93.
Models for the assessment of the risk of complex engineering systems are affected by uncertainties due to the randomness of several phenomena involved and the incomplete knowledge about some of the characteristics of the system. The objective of this article is to provide operative guidelines to handle some conceptual and technical issues related to the treatment of uncertainty in risk assessment for engineering practice. In particular, the following issues are addressed: (1) quantitative modeling and representation of uncertainty coherently with the information available on the system of interest; (2) propagation of the uncertainty from the input(s) to the output(s) of the system model; (3) (Bayesian) updating as new information on the system becomes available; and (4) modeling and representation of dependences among the input variables and parameters of the system model. Different approaches and methods are recommended for efficiently tackling each of issues (1)?(4) above; the tools considered are derived from both classical probability theory as well as alternative, nonfully probabilistic uncertainty representation frameworks (e.g., possibility theory). The recommendations drawn are supported by the results obtained in illustrative applications of literature. 相似文献
94.
The discussion about business models has gained considerable attention in the last decade. Business model frameworks have been developed in the literature as management methods helping companies to comprehend and analyse their current business logic and guide the deployment of new strategies. In response to calls for a deeper understanding of the application of a business model approach to product-service systems (PSS), this study develops a two-level hierarchical framework that (i) includes a set of components with pertinent, second-order variables to take into account when undergoing the shift from products to solutions; (ii) supports industrial companies, especially SMEs, in designing their future business model and in consistently planning the actions needed to implement it. The framework was applied and refined within real-life settings. The application to KINE – a robot solutions supplier – shows how key challenges faced by servitization firms may be thoroughly addressed through the adoption of a business model perspective. 相似文献
95.
Fabio Giglietto Augusto Valeriani Nicola Righetti Giada Marino 《Information, Communication & Society》2019,22(11):1610-1629
ABSTRACTThe paper considers how social media ecologies are affecting partisan engagement around political news and online attention economies by investigating the case of the 2018 Italian general election. By analyzing Twitter and Facebook interactions around political news in the lead-up to the election, we shed light on levels of insularity characterizing sources preferred by different partisan communities and investigate how specific patterns of active attention emerge around different sources and around stories proposing different framing of specific political actors. Our findings indicate that, on Twitter, sources mainly shared by supporters of populist parties (the Five Star Movement and the League) are characterized by higher levels of insularity compared to those shared by supporters of other parties. We also find that, on Facebook, news items published by highly insular sources receive a higher number of shares per comment. Finally, our analyses show that news presenting a positive framing of the Five Star Movement – the unique ‘cyber party’ in the system – receives a higher number of shares per comment compared to items presenting the Movement in a negative light, while the opposite is true for stories on all other political parties. 相似文献
96.
Robert J. Snowden Aimee McKinnon Julie Fitoussi Nicola S. Gray 《Journal of sex research》2019,56(1):74-84
The pupil dilates to images that are arousing. In Experiment 1, we examined if the pupil’s response to brief presentations (2,000 ms) of static images could be used to identify individuals’ sexual orientation. Participants were grouped according to their self-reported gender and sexual orientation (male heterosexual, N = 20; male bisexual, N = 13; male homosexual, N = 19; female heterosexual, N = 28; female bisexual, N = 21; female homosexual, N = 17). Pupil size was monitored to images of men in seminude poses, women in seminude poses, or neutral images. Every group showed the same pattern of responses, with the greatest dilation to male images, then female images, and least dilation to the neutral images. Experiment 2 used more tightly controlled stimuli and tested at two different image durations (150 and 3,000 ms). Both heterosexual men (N = 18) and women (N = 20) showed greater pupil dilation to images of nude men than to nude women. However, in Experiment 3, where we reduced the erotic content by using images of clothed models, both heterosexual men and women showed greater pupil dilation to images of women. The results showed that while the pupil does dilate strongly to sexual imagery, its response to these brief static images does not correspond to a person’s sexual orientation in a simple manner. 相似文献
97.
98.
Francois Mercier Nicola Consalvo Nicolas Frey Alex Phipps Benjamin Ribba 《Pharmaceutical statistics》2019,18(5):526-532
Waterfall plots are used to describe changes in tumor size observed in clinical studies. They are frequently used to illustrate the overall drug response in oncology clinical trials because of its simple representation of results. Unfortunately, this visual display suffers a number of limitations including (1) potential misguidance by masking the time dynamics of tumor size, (2) ambiguous labelling of the y‐axis, and (3) low data‐to‐ink ratio. We offer some alternatives to address these shortcomings and recommend moving away from waterfall plots to the benefit of plots showing the individual time profiles of sum of lesion diameters (according to RECIST). The spider plot presents the individual changes in tumor measurements over time relative to baseline tumor burden. Baseline tumor size is a well‐known confounding factor of drug effect which has to be accounted for when analyzing data in early clinical trials. While spider plots are conveniently correct for baseline tumor size, they cannot be presented in isolation. Indeed, percentage change from baseline has suboptimal statistical properties (including skewed distribution) and can be overly optimistic in favor of drug efficacy. We argued that plots of raw data (referred to as spaghetti plots) should always accompany spider plots to provide an equipoised illustration of the drug effect on lesion diameters. 相似文献
99.
Julie Gedro Nicola Marae Allain Desalyn De-Souza Lynne Dodson Mary V. Mawn 《Human Resource Development International》2020,23(4):395-405
ABSTRACT For an adult, non-traditional student focused college, the pandemic brought into stark reality the challenges that the dislocation brought ‘home,’ literally, for many people. This article presents a set of reflections of five women leaders at a public institution of higher education. Through their reflections, they discuss their responses to the challenges faced by faculty, staff and students during the pandemic. Issues of gender, race, class, precarious work, technological access, and related challenges are raised to the surface. We offer three implications for HRD and leadership development research and practice. 相似文献
100.
Nemanja Antić Nicola Persico 《Econometrica : journal of the Econometric Society》2020,88(6):2663-2695
In a cheap-talk setting where the conflict of interest between sender and receiver is determined endogenously by the choice of parameters θi for each agent i, conditions are provided that determine the sign of each agent's inverse demand for θ without assuming that the most informative equilibrium will necessarily be played in the cheap talk game. For two popular functional forms of payoffs, we derive analytically tractable approximations for agent i's demand for θ. In an application where the θi's are purchased on a competitive market, we provide conditions for a competitive equilibrium to feature maximal information transmission. In a principal–agent application where the agent's θ is set by the principal, our results show that information transmission will be partial. We consider extensions where: (1) the θ's are acquired covertly rather than overtly and (2) the θ's are traded after the sender has received the information. 相似文献