Valuing mortality risk reductions from environmental, transport, and health policies: a global meta-analysis of stated preference studies

We conduct, to our knowledge, the first global meta-analysis (MA) of stated preference (SP) surveys of mortality risk valuation. The surveys ask adults their willingness to pay (WTP) for small reductions in mortality risks, deriving estimates of the sample mean value of statistical life (VSL) for environmental, health, and transport policies. We explain the variation in VSL estimates by differences in the characteristics of the SP methodologies applied, the population affected, and the characteristics of the mortality risks valued, including the magnitude of the risk change. The mean (median) VSL in our full data set of VSL sample means was found to be around $7.4 million (2.4 million) (2005 U.S. dollars). The most important variables explaining the variation in VSL are gross domestic product (GDP) per capita and the magnitude of the risk change valued. According to theory, however, VSL should be independent of the risk change. We discuss and test a range of quality screening criteria in order to investigate the effect of limiting the MA to high-quality studies. When limiting the MA to studies that find statistically significant differences in WTP using external or internal scope tests (without requiring strict proportionality), we find that mean VSL from studies that pass both tests tend to be less sensitive to the magnitude of the risk change. Mean VSL also tends to decrease when stricter screening criteria are applied. For many of our screened models, we find a VSL income elasticity of 0.7-0.9, which is reduced to 0.3-0.4 for some subsets of the data that satisfy scope tests or use the same high-quality survey.     

Monitoring Trends in Global Combat: A New Dataset of Battle Deaths

Both academic publications and public media often make inappropriate use of incommensurate conflict statistics, creating misleading impressions about patterns in global warfare. This article clarifies the distinction between combatant deaths, battle deaths, and war deaths. A new dataset of battle deaths in armed conflict is presented for the period 1946–2002. Global battle deaths have been decreasing over most of this period, mainly due to a decline in interstate and internationalised civil armed conflict. It is far more difficult to accurately assess the number of war deaths in conflicts both past and present. But there are compelling reasons to believe that there is a need for increased attention to non-battle causes of mortality, especially displacement and disease in conflict studies. Therefore, it is demographers, public health specialists, and epidemiologists who can best describe the true human cost of many recent armed conflicts and assess the actions necessary to reduce that toll.     

Goodness of Fit via Non-parametric Likelihood Ratios

Abstract.  To test if a density f is equal to a specified f ₀, one knows by the Neyman–Pearson lemma the form of the optimal test at a specified alternative f ₁. Any non-parametric density estimation scheme allows an estimate of f . This leads to estimated likelihood ratios. Properties are studied of tests which for the density estimation ingredient use log-linear expansions. Such expansions are either coupled with subset selectors like the Akaike information criterion and the Bayesian information criterion regimes, or use order growing with sample size. Our tests are generalized to testing the adequacy of general parametric models, and to work also in higher dimensions. The tests are related to, but are different from, the 'smooth tests' that go back to Neyman [Skandinavisk Aktuarietidsskrift 20(1937) 149] and that have been studied extensively in recent literature. Our tests are large-sample equivalent to such smooth tests under local alternative conditions, but different from the smooth tests and often better under non-local conditions.     

Correction of Density Estimators that are not Densities

Abstract. Several old and new density estimators may have good theoretical performance, but are hampered by not being bona fide densities; they may be negative in certain regions or may not integrate to 1. One can therefore not simulate from them, for example. This paper develops general modification methods that turn any density estimator into one which is a bona fide density, and which is always better in performance under one set of conditions and arbitrarily close in performance under a complementary set of conditions. This improvement-for-free procedure can, in particular, be applied for higher-order kernel estimators, classes of modern h ⁴ bias kernel type estimators, superkernel estimators, the sinc kernel estimator, the k -NN estimator, orthogonal expansion estimators, and for various recently developed semi-parametric density estimators.     

Factor Structure,Reliability, and Known Groups Validity of the German Version of the Childhood Trauma Questionnaire (Short-Form) in Swiss Patients and Nonpatients

The Childhood Trauma Questionnaire–Short Form is the most widely used instrument to assess childhood trauma and has been translated into 10 languages. However, research into validity and reliability of these translated versions is scarce. The present study aimed to investigate the factor structure, internal consistency, reliability, and known-groups validity of the German Childhood Trauma Questionnaire–Short Form (Bernstein & Fink, 1998). Six-hundred and sixty-one clinical and nonclinical participants completed the German Childhood Trauma Questionnaire–Short Form. A confirmatory factor analysis was conducted to assess the 5-factor structure of the original Childhood Trauma Questionnaire–Short Form. To investigate known-groups validity, the confirmatory factor analysis latent factor levels between clinical and nonclinical participants were compared. The original 5-factor structure was confirmed, with only the Physical Neglect scale showing rather poor fit. As a conclusion, the results support the validity and reliability of the German Childhood Trauma Questionnaire–Short Form. It is recommended to use the German Childhood Trauma Questionnaire–Short Form to assess experiences of childhood trauma.     

Cross dock scheduling: Classification,literature review and research agenda

At cross docking terminals incoming deliveries of inbound trucks are unloaded, sorted, moved across the dock and finally loaded onto outbound trucks, which immediately leave the terminal towards their next destination in the distribution chain. Accordingly, a cross dock is a consolidation point in a distribution network, where multiple smaller shipments can be merged to full truck loads in order to realize economies in transportation. In this context, the truck scheduling problem, which decides on the succession of truck processing at the dock doors, is especially important to ensure a rapid turnover and on-time deliveries. Due to its high real-world significance, several truck scheduling procedures have been introduced during recent years, which all treat specific cross dock settings. In order to structure and promote scientific progress, this paper introduces a classification of deterministic truck scheduling. With the help of this classification, existing literature is reviewed and future research needs are identified. Moreover, we represent a yet unexplored class of truck scheduling problems which is highly relevant in real-world distribution networks.     

Die Definition in der betriebswirtschaftlichen Forschung — Reflexionen und empirischer Befund

Zusammenfassung  Definitionen geh?ren zum Handwerkszeug eines jeden Wissenschaftlers. Durch sie muss — speziell in den Realwissenschaften — den Adressaten wissenschaftlicher Erkenntnis laufend der Rückschluss von der sprachlichen Darstellung auf den behandelten in der Wirklichkeit vorhandenen Gegenstand erm?glicht werden. Dieser Beitrag hat zum Ziel, Funktion und alternative Formen der Definition zu verdeutlichen und zu beurteilen. Eine empirische Untersuchung über den Gebrauch der Definition in der Betriebswirtschaftslehre versucht die Konvention zu erheben, damit eigene Definitionen auf „festen Grund“ gestellt werden k?nnen.

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On the use of definitions in business research — thoughts and empirical findings

Summary  Definitions are among the most basic tools of every scientist. Especially in the social sciences, they constitute an essential means for the addressee of the scientific insight, in order to infer from the linguistic term to the actual object in reality. The aim of this article is to explain and assess functions and alternative forms of definitions. By an empirical study on the use of definitions in business science literature, we identify linguistic conventions which assist in laying the foundation for subsequent definitions.

     

The Bernstein–von Mises theorem in semiparametric competing risks models

Semiparametric Bayesian models are nowadays a popular tool in event history analysis. An important area of research concerns the investigation of frequentist properties of posterior inference. In this paper, we propose novel semiparametric Bayesian models for the analysis of competing risks data and investigate the Bernstein–von Mises theorem for differentiable functionals of model parameters. The model is specified by expressing the cause-specific hazard as the product of the conditional probability of a failure type and the overall hazard rate. We take the conditional probability as a smooth function of time and leave the cumulative overall hazard unspecified. A prior distribution is defined on the joint parameter space, which includes a beta process prior for the cumulative overall hazard. We first develop the large-sample properties of maximum likelihood estimators by giving simple sufficient conditions for them to hold. Then, we show that, under the chosen priors, the posterior distribution for any differentiable functional of interest is asymptotically equivalent to the sampling distribution derived from maximum likelihood estimation. A simulation study is provided to illustrate the coverage properties of credible intervals on cumulative incidence functions.