A note on the history of regression

The first notion of statistical regression is usually attributed to Francis Galton. Recent work in a special field of applied statistics has brought to light the work of the neglected pioneer R. J. Adcock. Despite errors of execution, he deserves remembering in the history of our science. He came close to inventing linear regression; he also saw the need for specifying criteria for optimal estimation of parameters, and, with a little clearer understanding, he might have become the first recorded maximizer of likelihood.     

Experimental design and systematic monitoring

David Finney has enjoyed a long and distinguished career, both as an academic statistician and in various areas of agricultural research and medical statistics. He tells Helen Joyce about his career, and shares his views on the state of statistics today.     

The roles of social housing providers in creating ‘integrated’ communities

ABSTRACT

Cohesion and integration agendas in Britain can be characterised by localisation of ‘race relations’ responsibilities and the importance of local institutions in shaping neighbourhoods has been acknowledged. However, little is understood about the roles of housing providers in integration initiatives. Indeed, research on housing and race has experienced a lull in the 2000s. Thus, this paper aims to examine how social housing providers negotiate their positions and are complicit in constructing a certain vision of community. It draws on interviews from the ESRC Centre on Dynamics of Ethnicity (CoDE)’s work in the ethnically diverse neighbourhoods of Cheetham Hill (Manchester), Newham (London), Butetown (Cardiff) and Pollokshields and Govanhill (Glasgow). The paper makes three arguments: first, that race and ethnicity as facets of ‘integration’ have been subsumed into broader agendas, yet remain implicit in community building; second, that housing organisation practices are often detached from local meanings of community and prioritise exclusionary activities focusing on behaviour change and, third, that the roles of housing organisations in constructing ‘integrated’ communities are highly variable and localised, influenced by the history and contemporary dynamics of place.     

Opportunities and challenges doing interdisciplinary research: what can we learn from studies of ethnicity,inequality and place?

ABSTRACT

This Special Issue Introduction critically reflects on the interdisciplinary working project on ethnicity, inequality and place undertaken by the ESRC Centre on Dynamics of Ethnicity. We argue that CoDE is uniquely placed to undertake this interdisciplinary work and discuss the extent to which the project pushed thinking beyond that of our disciplinary homes to provide innovative insights into the significance of place for understanding ethnic inequalities and identities. From the six papers in the Special Issue, this Introduction identifies four cross-cutting themes on ethnicity and place: processes of exclusion, the importance of temporal context and change, tensions of scale in the way ethnicity and place together shape experiences and inequalities, and the conceptualisation of ethnicity as dynamic, multi-faceted and socially constructed. We argue that the project has succeeded in terms of cross fertilisation of ideas, challenging ontological and epistemological divisions, and facilitating interdisciplinary learning, adaptation and appreciation. We also identify difficulties that were experienced. We suggest that interdisciplinary ideas flourish in an environment where they can fail and conflict, but where failure and conflict does not disrupt the underlying momentum of the work. We conclude in favour of interdisciplinary, democratic and co-produced research as a tool for social change.     

Wildfire Exposure Analysis on the National Forests in the Pacific Northwest,USA

We analyzed wildfire exposure for key social and ecological features on the national forests in Oregon and Washington. The forests contain numerous urban interfaces, old growth forests, recreational sites, and habitat for rare and endangered species. Many of these resources are threatened by wildfire, especially in the east Cascade Mountains fire‐prone forests. The study illustrates the application of wildfire simulation for risk assessment where the major threat is from large and rare naturally ignited fires, versus many previous studies that have focused on risk driven by frequent and small fires from anthropogenic ignitions. Wildfire simulation modeling was used to characterize potential wildfire behavior in terms of annual burn probability and flame length. Spatial data on selected social and ecological features were obtained from Forest Service GIS databases and elsewhere. The potential wildfire behavior was then summarized for each spatial location of each resource. The analysis suggested strong spatial variation in both burn probability and conditional flame length for many of the features examined, including biodiversity, urban interfaces, and infrastructure. We propose that the spatial patterns in modeled wildfire behavior could be used to improve existing prioritization of fuel management and wildfire preparedness activities within the Pacific Northwest region.     

Mediating claims to artistry: Social stratification in a local visual arts community

Participant observation was employed to analyze the stratification of artists in the visual art world around a small northeastern American city. Reflecting their art world reputation, artists' strata included naifs, hobbyists, serious amateurs, aspiring preprofessionals, and professionals. The local careers of some artists moved progressively from lower to higher reaches of the system; as they moved upward, their level of professional commitment, art world involvement, knowledge of art, skill, and artistic style tended to change also. Except among professionals, the great majority were women. Overall, certain art styles were selectively favored. The most important selective mechanisms were formal art education, professionalization, artistic style, network centrality, jurying, and sales. With a few recent exceptions, truly naive and imitative traditional styles were excluded from the upper levels in favor of modernist abstraction, innovative figuration, or sophisticated forms ofart brut.An earlier version of this paper was presented to the 12th World Congress of Sociology, International Sociological Association, Madrid, July 1990.     

Book reviews

Francesco Consoli

Carriere professionali e governo delle imprese (Professional Careers and Organizational Control) Torino Rosenberg & Sellier, 1991, 429 pp.     

Statistical science and effective scientific communication*

Modern science increasingly uses sophisticated statistical techniques, yet papers in scientific journals are often defective in identification of methods used and in clear presentation of quantitative conclusions. The omission of essential information, ambiguities and misleading conclusions from ill-chosen methods often escape editorial challenge: referees, usually chosen for expertise in the substantive subject matter, may lack the statistical skill and experience needed for critical assessment. This paper makes proposals that might enable an editor and his referees more readily to detect the need for major revision before publication. Some matters have ethical components in addition to their implications for the advancement of knowledge in many disciplines.