Kolmogorov–Smirnov,Fluctuation, and Z g Tests for Convergence of Markov Chain Monte Carlo Draws

We examine the sizes and powers of three tests of convergence of Markov Chain Monte Carlo draws: the Kolmogorov–Smirnov test, fluctuation test, and Geweke's test. We show that the sizes and powers are sensitive to the existence of autocorrelation in the draws. We propose a filtered test that is corrected for autocorrelation. We present a numerical illustration using the Federal funds rate.     

Persistent Risk-Related Worry as a Function of Recalled Exposure to the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill and Prior Trauma

Large oil spills are disasters associated with psychological effects for exposed communities. The amount of worry that individuals experience after a disaster may be influenced by many factors, such as the type and extent of exposure to disaster impacts, prior trauma, and sociodemographic characteristics. This study examined the nature and predictors of worry about ongoing impacts of the 2010 Deepwater Horizon (DH) oil spill reported by Gulf of Mexico coastal residents. A random sample of 2,520 adult residents of Gulf of Mexico coastal counties were administered a telephone survey in 2016, including items about persistent worry and exposure to DH impacts, prior trauma, residence at the time of the spill, and sociodemographic characteristics. Respondents varied in the amount of worry they reported about ongoing health, social, and economic impacts. Controlling for sociodemographic characteristics, higher exposure to the DH oil spill was related to higher levels of worry about ongoing impacts, with past traumatic events related specifically to worry about health impacts. Unexpectedly, those who moved into the region after the spill showed similar levels of worry to residents exposed to the spill, and higher levels than residents who did not recall being exposed to the DH oil spill. This study highlights the impact of the DH oil spill on coastal residents many years after the DH disaster. The findings underscore the need to examine multiple pathways by which individuals experience disasters and for risk researchers to close knowledge gaps about long-term impacts of oil spills within a multi-dimensional framework.     

The Tanda: A Practice at the Intersection of Mathematics,Culture, and Financial Goals

We present an analysis and discussion of the tanda, a multiperson pooled credit and savings scheme (a rotating credit association or RCA), as described by two informants from Mexican immigrant communities in California. In the tanda, participants contribute regularly to a common fund which is distributed to participants on a rotating basis. We analyze the tanda at multiple levels (as a mathematical, cultural, and distributed practice) and identify points of intersection and conflict. Contrary to many formal or school-based conceptions of mathematics, mathematical work in the context of the tanda is in service of, and intimately tied up with, cultural goals and values. Likewise, cultural means and mathematics are employed to personal ends. We argue that the tanda should be of enduring interest, particularly among educators interested in bringing more authentic, culturally-relevant mathematics into classroom settings, because it so clearly illustrates how mathematical and cultural processes can interact in the context of personal goals, and provides a potentially valuable template for engaging, consequential, and successful mathematics.     

From Rags to Riches: Jewish Oligarchs in Russia

SELECTIVE REMINISCENCES

KHRUSHCHEV REMEMBERS. THE LAST TESTAMENT, translated and edited by Strobe Talbott. London, André Deutsch; New York, Little Brown, 1974. xxxi, 602 pp. Illus. Appendix. £4.95; $12.95.

HISTORY OF ZIONISM IN RUSSIA

HA‐TENUAH HA‐TSIYONIT BE‐RUSYA (The Zionist Movement in Russia), by Yitshak Maor. Jerusalem, Ha‐Histadrut ha‐Tsiyonit, 1974. 597 pp.

A CONTRIBUTION TO JEWISH DEMOGRAPHY

STUDIES IN JEWISH DEMOGRAPHY: SURVEY FOR 1969–1971, edited by U. O. Schmelz, P. Glickson and S. J. Gould (Institute of Contemporary Jewry, Hebrew University, Jerusalem; and Institute of Jewish Affairs, London), 1975. 375 pp. N.p.

ANTI‐ZIONISM AND ANTISEMITISM

SOVIET ANTI‐SEMITISM: THE PARIS TRIAL, ed. and with an Introduction by Emanuel Litvinoff, London, Wildwood House, 1974. 120 pp. £3.00.

POLZUCHAYA KONTRREVOLYUTSIYA (Creeping Counterrevolution), by Vladimir Begun, Minsk, Izdatelstvo “Belarus”, 1974. 191 pp. 28 kop.

AN UNSATISFACTORY STUDY

THE SOVIET TREATMENT OF JEWS, by Harry G. Shaffer. New York, Washington, London, Praeger, 1974. 231 pp. £6.50.

FASCISM AND ANTISEMITISM IN THE DANUBE BASIN

THE SHADOW OF THE SWASTIKA. THE RISE OF FASCISM AND ANTI‐SEMITISM IN THE DANUBE BASIN, 1936–1939, by Bela Vago. Farnborough, Saxon House, D. C. Heath, for the Institute of Jewish Affairs, London, 1975. 431 pp. Docs. Maps. Index of Names. Subject Index. Appendix. £6.50.

THE JEWS OF HUNGARY

EVKONYV 1973/74 (Yearbook 1973/74), ed. by Sándor Scheiber. Budapest, Magyar Izraeliták Országos Képviselete, 1974. 382 pp. Illus. 40 Ft.

A PICTURE OF POLISH SOCIETY BETWEEN THE WARS

SPOLECZENSTWO DRUGIEJ RZECZYPOSPOLITEJ 1918–1939 (The Society of Interwar Poland 1918–1939), by Janusz Zarnowski. Warsaw, PWN (State Scientific Publishers), 1973. 435 pp. 40 zl.     

Mortality Differentials by Marital Status: An International Comparison

Although the greater longevity of married people as compared with unmarried persons has been demonstrated repeatedly, there have been very few studies of a comparative nature. We use log-linear rate models to analyze marital-status-specific death rates for a large number of developed countries. The results indicate that divorced persons, especially divorced men, have the highest death rates among the unmarried groups of the respective genders; the excess mortality of unmarried persons relative to the married has been generally increasing over the past two to three decades; and divorced and widowed persons in their twenties and thirties have particularly high risks of dying, relative to married persons of the same age. In addition, the analysis suggests that a selection process is operating with regard to single and divorced persons: the smaller the proportion of persons who never marry or who are divorced, the higher the resulting death rates.     

The business of education: a new paradigm

Business as usual is not the answer these days. But how do you create a new paradigm for academic educational and research endeavors? There is increasing pressure to separate the costs of providing care to patients from those of educating students and residents. It is evident already that we will not enjoy the flexibility of the past to cross-subsidize the academic effort. Presented here is a case study--a joint venture between Harvard Medical School and Beth Israel HealthCare created to sustain the academic mission, as distinct from its clinical business, and promote innovation in medical education and research through intellectual leadership, dedicated state-of-the-art facilities, and a focused development effort.     

Can fertility be estimated from current pregnancy data?

Summary This paper explores the feasibility of estimating fertility from reports on current pregnancies collected in single-round sample surveys. Data from 15 countries in the World Fertility Survey are used to evaluate the possibilities. The results indicate that neither the age pattern of fertility nor the total fertility ratio can be reliably estimated from current pregnancy data. For almost all countries, the total fertility ratio based on recent births is higher than that based on current pregnancies, even when the latter estimate is restricted to higher durations of pregnancy.