战略决策时的失真和欺骗

“委托-代理”问题导致决策失真和欺骗，并会对组织产生毁灭性影响     

Minimizing Skin Color Differences Does Not Eliminate the Own-Race Recognition Advantage in Infants

An abundance of experience with own-race faces and limited to no experience with other-race faces has been associated with better recognition memory for own-race faces in infants, children, and adults. This study investigated the developmental origins of this other-race effect (ORE) by examining the role of a salient perceptual property of faces-that of skin color. Six- and 9-month-olds' recognition memory for own- and other-race faces was examined using infant-controlled habituation and visual-paired comparison at test. Infants were shown own- or other-race faces in color or with skin color cues minimized in grayscale images. Results for the color stimuli replicated previous findings that infants show an ORE in face recognition memory. Results for the grayscale stimuli showed that even when a salient perceptual cue to race, such as skin color information, is minimized, 6- to 9-month-olds, nonetheless, show an ORE in their face recognition memory. Infants' use of shape-based and configural cues for face recognition is discussed.     

Optimal Insurance With Divergent Beliefs About Insurer Total Default Risk

This paper extends the classic expected utility theory analysis of optimal insurance contracting to the case where the insurer has a positive probability of total default and the buyer and insurer have divergent beliefs about this probability. The optimal marginal indemnity above the deductible is smaller (greater) than one if the buyer's assessment of default risk is more pessimistic (optimistic) than the insurer's. As an application of the model, we consider the market for reinsurance against catastrophic property loss and propose an expected utility theory explanation for the increasing and concave marginal indemnity schedule observed in this market.     

Social support networks,instant messaging,and gender equity in refugee education

ABSTRACT

This paper addresses the role of instant messaging chat groups to support teacher training and gender equity initiatives in Kenyan refugee camps. Our findings are based on survey data with refugee teachers in Dadaab and Kakuma refugee camps (n?=?203), group interviews with refugee teachers in Kakuma (n?=?21), and interviews with international instructors of teacher training programs in Nairobi, Toronto, and Vancouver (n?=?14). In our analysis, we apply amplification theory, feminist science and technology studies paradigms, and considerations of transnational approaches to understand the use of instant messaging among refugee teacher communities. Our framework explores how social and cultural norms are amplified through transnational text and instant messaging related to teacher training and in support of gender equity. Peer-to-peer group chats draw on transnational learning opportunities and expand these engagements through group chats between men and women refugee teachers across camps as well as through community engagement about gender equity initiatives in education. International instructors identify both value and hesitation in navigating the quantity and content of these communications, such as learning more about refugee teachers’ daily lives in the camps and concern about following and managing the amount of communication that can ensue over chat groups. Our work has practical implications for transnational teacher training programs in refugee camps, illuminates how mobile technology and chat groups allow women and men in the community to engage and support girls’ education, and questions how text messaging affects the lived and day-to-day experiences of women refugee teachers.     

Self-organizing maps in population based metaheuristic to the dynamic vehicle routing problem

We consider the dynamic vehicle routing problem (dynamic VRP). In this problem, new customer demands are received along the day. Hence, they must be serviced at their locations by a set of vehicles in real time. The approach to address the problem is a hybrid method which manipulates the self-organizing map (SOM) neural network into a population based evolutionary algorithm. The method, called memetic SOM, illustrates how the concept of intermediate structure, also called elastic net or adaptive mesh concept, provided by the original SOM can naturally be applied into a dynamic setting. The experiments show that the heuristic outperforms the approaches that were applied to the Kilby et al. 22 problems with up to 385 customers. It performs better with respect to solution quality than the ant colony algorithm MACS-VRPTW, a genetic algorithm, and a multi-agent oriented approach, with a computation time used roughly 100 times lesser.     

Computer experiments with functional inputs and scalar outputs by a norm-based approach

A framework for designing and analyzing computer experiments is presented, which is constructed for dealing with functional and scalar inputs and scalar outputs. For designing experiments with both functional and scalar inputs, a two-stage approach is suggested. The first stage consists of constructing a candidate set for each functional input. During the second stage, an optimal combination of the found candidate sets and a Latin hypercube for the scalar inputs is sought. The resulting designs can be considered to be generalizations of Latin hypercubes. Gaussian process models are explored as metamodel. The functional inputs are incorporated into the Kriging model by applying norms in order to define distances between two functional inputs. We propose the use of B-splines to make the calculation of these norms computationally feasible.     

Work/life balance policy in Germany: Promoting equal partnership in families

Across the OECD, public policies seek to support parents in achieving their desired work/life balance. This article introduces the background to and issues at stake in promoting equal partnerships in families in Germany. Families in Germany face considerable challenges to spending more time together and achieving a more gender‐balanced reconciliation of work and family life, as paid work hours for fathers are long on full‐time jobs and many women are in part‐time jobs. Family policy can play an important role and Germany has made substantial progress in supporting families ahead of and after the birth of a child. Important in this regard are the parental leave reforms of 2007 and 2015 and the extension of childcare supports that better enable fathers and mothers to combine work and family commitments. The article assesses recent developments in family policies in Germany while also drawing from the experiences of countries with longstanding policies to support work/life balance and strengthen gender equality.     

Betting on Machina’s reflection example: an experiment on ambiguity

In a recent article, Machina (Am Econ Rev forthcoming, 2008) suggested choice problems in the spirit of Ellsberg (Q J Econ 75:643–669, 1961), which challenge tail-separability, an implication of Choquet expected utility (CEU), to a similar extent as the Ellsberg paradox challenged the sure-thing principle implied by subjective expected utility (SEU). We have tested choice behavior for bets on one of Machina’s choice problems, the reflection example. Our results indicate that tail-separability is violated by a large majority of subjects (over 70% of the sample). These empirical findings complement the theoretical analysis of Machina (Am Econ Rev forthcoming, 2008) and, together, they confirm the need for new approaches in the analysis of ambiguity for decision making.     

A proportional hazards regression model with change-points in the baseline function

In this article, we consider a new regression model for counting processes under a proportional hazards assumption. This model is motivated by the need of understanding the evolution of the booking process of a railway company. The main novelty of the approach consists in assuming that the baseline hazard function is piecewise constant, with unknown times of jump (these times of jump are estimated from the data as model parameters). Hence, the parameters of the model can be separated into two different types: parameters that measure the influence of the covariates, and parameters from a multiple change-point model for the baseline. Cox??s semiparametric regression can be seen as a limit case of our model. We develop an iterative procedure to estimate the different parameters, and a test procedure that allows to perform change-point detection in the baseline. Our technique is supported by simulation studies and a real data analysis, which show that our model can be a reasonable alternative to Cox??s regression model, particularly in the presence of tied event times.     

Confidence Intervals for the Scale Parameter of the Power-Law Process

The power-law process (PLP) is a two-parameter model widely used for modeling repairable system reliability. Results on exact point estimation for both parameters as well as exact interval estimation for the shape parameter are well known. In this paper, we investigate the interval estimation for the scale parameter. Asymptotic confidence intervals are derived using Fisher information matrix and theoretical results by Cocozza-Thivent (1997 Cocozza-Thivent , C. ( 1997 ). Processus Stochastiques et Fiabilité des Systèmes . Berlin : Springer-Verlag . [Google Scholar]). The accuracy of the interval estimation for finite samples is studied by simulation methods.