Propagation of Uncertainty in Risk Assessments: The Need to Distinguish Between Uncertainty Due to Lack of Knowledge and Uncertainty Due to Variability

In quantitative uncertainty analysis, it is essential to define rigorously the endpoint or target of the assessment. Two distinctly different approaches using Monte Carlo methods are discussed: (1) the end point is a fixed but unknown value (e.g., the maximally exposed individual, the average individual, or a specific individual) or (2) the end point is an unknown distribution of values (e.g., the variability of exposures among unspecified individuals in the population). In the first case, values are sampled at random from distributions representing various "degrees of belief" about the unknown "fixed" values of the parameters to produce a distribution of model results. The distribution of model results represents a subjective confidence statement about the true but unknown assessment end point. The important input parameters are those that contribute most to the spread in the distribution of the model results. In the second case, Monte Carlo calculations are performed in two dimensions producing numerous alternative representations of the true but unknown distribution. These alternative distributions permit subject confidence statements to be made from two perspectives: (1) for the individual exposure occurring at a specified fractile of the distribution or (2) for the fractile of the distribution associated with a specified level of individual exposure. The relative importance of input parameters will depend on the fractile or exposure level of interest. The quantification of uncertainty for the simulation of a true but unknown distribution of values represents the state-of-the-art in assessment modeling.     

Editorial: The Urgent Need for Global Action to Combat Climate Change

Abstract

Within the study of global politics and global political economy there has been an increase in literature within the last few years on the growth of resistance movements geared toward challenging the hegemony of US-inspired neoliberalism. This article questions much of the normative literature that is emerging, particularly from international political economy, on the nature of resistance and the anti-globalization movement. Using the case of Britain as an example, it argues that it is necessary to assess the various parts of the movement before any claim to counter-hegemony or counter-movement can be made. By looking at the various fragmented anti-globalization strategies and struggles that have been articulated within Britain, we also warn that any potential progressive or emancipatory ‘counter’ project is likely to suffer both from potential reactionary forces and from the lack of a clear transformative agenda.     

Planning for Aging in Place: Incorporating the Voice of Elders to Promote Quality of Life

Abstract

Aging in place offers emotional and physical benefits; however, challenges associated with advanced age may make aging in place difficult. As communities across the country prepare for forecasted increases in the proportion of older residents, it is important to understand barriers that may prevent aging in place. Perceived barriers voiced by residents of a suburban county who completed an Aging in Place Needs Assessment Survey were categorized into four themes: need to downsize/home modification; need for assistance; family desire to reciprocate care; and isolation. A fifth group with no intent to relocate, but with concerns about having to, was also identified. Included among this group were persons with mental health or developmental disorders, such as anxiety and autism spectrum disorder. Results were examined through a person-centered lens to illustrate that aging in place may be the desired option even among residents who indicate that it is not. It is important that aging-in-place initiatives preserve identity by fostering a sense of autonomy, control, and well-being in older residents.     

A scientist's viewpoint on promoting effective use of experimental design: Ten things a scientist wants to know about experimental design

This paper tackles the practical application of statistical tools. Chemical development is a rich area for collaboration between statisticians and chemists, but most statisticians encounter difficulties in promoting the tools to this client group. This paper, presented from a chemist's perspective, is intended to help bridge the gap between the two professions. The paper explores differences in uptake and attitudes towards adopting these techniques and suggests what has hindered or helped the process of effective application of experimental design. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Geometric Ergodicity and Scanning Strategies for Two-Component Gibbs Samplers

In Markov chain Monte Carlo analysis, rapid convergence of the chain to its target distribution is crucial. A chain that converges geometrically quickly is geometrically ergodic. We explore geometric ergodicity for two-component Gibbs samplers (GS) that, under a chosen scanning strategy, evolve through one-at-a-time component-wise updates. We consider three such strategies: composition, random sequence, and random scans. We show that if any one of these scans produces a geometrically ergodic GS, so too do the others. Further, we provide a simple set of sufficient conditions for the geometric ergodicity of the GS. We illustrate our results using two examples.     

The new left,Jeremy Corbyn and the war of position: a new coherence or further fragmentation?

ABSTRACT

This article assesses the emergence of the new groups, organizations and protests that have emerged since the financial crisis and asks whether we can understand these as a fresh development where diverse movements fashioned through different ideological departure points have moved towards a form of convergence in which a wider hegemonic project can be fashioned, or whether in fact such proclamations are effectively another form of ‘wishing thinking’ in terms of left-wing renewal is concerned. In line with recently argued work, it suggests that for the left to look to overcome the ideological obstacles that plagued its twentieth century development, it needs to provide a wide/open set of principles that look to contest dominant norms of the neoliberal order that exist at the many levels of civil society. In this way a ‘war of position’ (to borrow from Gramsci) needs to be forged that looks to avoid charges of ‘elitism’ and ‘fragmentation’ that had seen the left to fail as a coherent alternative since the cold war. Whilst the new left has forged forms of contestation at the civil level (for example Occupy and the ESF) and more recently at the Political level (with Sanders, Corbyn and Syriza/Podermos), it has yet to form a consistent and coherent war of position to neoliberal capitalism.     

The Portable Community: Mobility and Modernization in Bluegrass Festival Life

Drawing from six years of ethnographic field research, I examine participants' involvement in bluegrass music and festival culture in the American West. Participants left their community‐starved home neighborhoods to cultivate what I refer to as “portable communities”: temporary forms of mobile gemeinschaft community that participants found in multiple settings. Festivalgoers articulated a consistent vocabulary of intimacy, inclusion, and simplicity when describing their continued involvement in this setting. They described their involvement as driven by a quest for intimate community, open and equal social relations, and simple living, elements they found in short supply in their daily lives. Whereas traditional community forms depend on residential stability, these participants intentionally cultivated and supported alternatives that emerged in response to participants' geographic mobility.     

The marketing approach to purchasing

The determination of supply and demand is a complex problem to which both sides of the equation must contribute. Although marketing departments have organized themselves to provide such a contribution to data, purchasing has done little to promote its contribution to demand forecasting. Until it does the equation will remain not merely complex but insoluble.A continuous inter-change between marketing and purchasing, supplier and customer, is essential for improving the accuracy of longer range forecasting and for logistical co-ordination of investment planning. The corporate plans of manufacturing organizations, at least, should reflect these considerations.     

Communication between Managers and Staff in the NHS: Trends and Prospects

The importance of the role of communication in the success of individual performance in social and business life is now widely recognized. Within organizations, effective internal communication between managers and staff is vital to organizational success. This is particularly so during periods of change, when staff uncertainty increases and there is an increased need for greater amounts of information and more frequent communication. Staff in the NHS have recently experienced some quite dramatic changes in their working practices. This paper therefore examines the current state of communication within the NHS and the implications which this poses for the overall functioning of the organization. In particular, the relationship between communication and the motivation of staff is described. The nature of communication audits, the main research approach used to assesses communication effectiveness, is then delineated, and areas of the NHS chosen for analysis by this means are proposed. The results of a series of audits are summarized. Problems in information flow, use of information sources and channels, the timeliness of information exchanged, the extent to which people send information to each other and the quality of working relationships are identified. The implications of these findings for the NHS and general views of management are considered.