DFID governance programming in Nigeria: What difference has thinking and working politically made in practice?

The UK Department for International Development's country office in Nigeria (DFID Nigeria) has gradually adopted a thinking and working politically (TWP) approach in its governance programming. The initial focus on strengthening analysis has progressively been linked to discussion about the country and programme strategy, as well as programme‐management practices. Important lessons can be learned from this experience on how the TWP approach can be applied in practice. The article addresses three research questions: (1) To what extent have DFID Nigeria and its governance programmes adopted a TWP approach? (2) How has the TWP approach influenced the design and delivery of programming? (3) Has the application of the TWP approach enhanced the results of the DFID governance programming? Using project documentation and wider theoretical literature, but mainly relying on extensive participant observation within DFID Nigeria programmes, the article uses a historical perspective to outline how the TWP approach has been applied in Nigeria over 15 years of programme design, delivery, lesson‐learning and refinement . Published evaluation reports are used to provide evidence of programme results. DFID Nigeria and its programmes have progressively adopted TWP principles. This has led to clear changes in country strategy and programme design, as well as programme‐management practices. There is some evidence that the adoption of these principles has enhanced the results of DFID Nigeria programmes. By focusing on experimentation and “small bets,” TWP has proven relatively successful in generating and supporting ‘islands of effectiveness,’ but has had more limited impact in terms of generating more systemic, transformational change. The results obtained in Nigeria using the TWP approach have depended not only on Nigeria's political economy but also on the political economy of the development agency and donor country. DFID Nigeria's ability to engage in critical self‐reflection and to create an authorizing environment for risk‐taking have been vital to create enabling conditions for the TWP approach. However, other aspects of DFID and the UK's political economy are creating constraints that limit the prospects to go further and to go deeper in adopting the principles of TWP.     

The practical utility of the Welch Emotional Connection Screen for rating parent–infant relational health

Emotional Connection (EC) measured by the Welch Emotional Connection Screen (WECS) was related to the Parent–Infant Interaction Rating System (PIIRS), a 5‐point adaptation of the rating system developed for the National Institute of Child Health and Human Development Study of Early Child Care and Youth Development (e.g., NICHD Early Child Care Research Network, 1999, Developmental Psychology, 35, 1399). Parent–infant dyads (n = 49 mothers; 43 fathers) were videotaped during face‐to‐face interaction at infant age 6 months; interactions were coded with both the WECS and PIIRS. At age 3, mothers completed the Child Behavior Checklist. WECS ratings of EC were associated with PIIRS rating items for both mother–infant and father–infant dyads. Mother–infant EC related positively to maternal sensitivity and positive regard for child, child positive mood and sustained attention, and dyadic mutuality, and negatively with maternal intrusiveness. Father–infant EC related positively to fathers' positive regard for child, child positive mood and sustained attention, and dyadic mutuality. Mother–infant EC predicted child behavior problems at age 3 better than mother–infant PIIRS ratings of dyadic mutuality. With fathers, neither EC nor dyadic mutuality ratings predicted mother‐reported child behavior problems. Findings highlight the practical utility of the WECS for identifying potentially at‐risk dyads and supporting early relational health.     

Survey of midwives’ perinatal mental health knowledge,confidence, attitudes and learning needs

Background

Midwives have a primary role in facilitating the first stage of perinatal mental health risk reduction through inquiring about perinatal mental health, identifying risk factors and current perinatal mental health problems, providing support or crisis intervention, referring for treatment and decreasing stigmatisation.

Elite players’ perceptions of football playing surfaces: a mixed effects ordinal logistic regression model of players’ perceptions

The aim of this study was to determine potential explanatory factors that may be associated with different attitudes amongst the global population of elite footballers to the use of different surfaces for football. A questionnaire was used to capture elite football players’ perceptions of playing surfaces and a mixed effects ordinal logistic regression model was used to explore potential explanatory factors of players’ perceptions. In total, responses from 1129 players from 44 different countries were analysed. The majority of players expressed a strong preference for the use of Natural Turf pitches over alternatives such as Artificial Turf. The regression model, with a players’ country as a random effect, indicated that players were less favourable towards either Natural Turf or Artificial Turf where there was perceived to be greater variability in surface qualities or the surface was perceived to have less desirable properties. Player’s surface experience was also linked to their overall attitudes, with a suggestion that the quality of the Natural Turf surface players experienced dictated players’ support for Artificial Turf.     

A table of normal integrals

Integrals of functions of the univariate, bivariate, trivariate and multivariate normal densities are given. Both indefinite and definite integrals are included.     

Underprotection of Unpredictable Statistical Lives Compared to Predictable Ones

Existing ethical discussion considers the differences in care for identified versus statistical lives. However, there has been little attention to the different degrees of care that are taken for different kinds of statistical lives. Here we argue that for a given number of statistical lives at stake, there will sometimes be different, and usually greater, care taken to protect predictable statistical lives, in which the number of lives that will be lost can be predicted fairly accurately, than for unpredictable statistical lives, where the lives are at stake because of a low‐probability event, such that most likely no one will be affected by the decision but with low probability some lives will be at stake. One reason for this difference is the statistical challenge of estimating low probabilities, and in particular the tendency of common approaches to underestimate these probabilities. Another is the existence of rational incentives to treat unpredictable risks as if the probabilities were lower than they are. Some of these factors apply outside the pure economic context, to institutions, individuals, and governments. We argue that there is no ethical reason to treat unpredictable statistical lives differently from predictable statistical lives. Moreover, lives that are unpredictable from the perspective of an individual agent may become predictable when aggregated to the level of a societal decision. Underprotection of unpredictable statistical lives is a form of market failure that may need to be corrected by altering regulation, introducing compulsory liability insurance, or other social policies.     

New representations of the noncentral chi-square density and cumulative

Representations of noncentral chi-square cumulative distribution function and probability density function are reviewed and new repre¬sentations are given. One representation of the cdf in terms of an integral is easily computed on any machine which has an accurate algorithm for computing the normal cdf.     

A likelihood ratio test for the equality of proportions of two normal populations

In sampling inspection by variables, an item is considered defective if its quality characteristic Y falls below some specification limit L₀. We consider switching to a new supplier if we can be sure that the proportion of defective items for the new supplier is smaller than the proportion defective for the present supplier.

Assume that Y has a normal distribution. A test for comparing these proportions is developed. A simulation study of the performance of the test is presented.     

Dependence in the 2001 one-number census project

Summary.  The one-number census approach was developed by the Office for National Statistics to adjust the counts from the 2001 census of England and Wales for underenumeration. The method is underpinned by an assumption of independence between the count of the population that was given by the 2001 census and the count that was given by the Census Coverage Survey. Some dependence was, however, detected, and the paper describes the strategy that was used to measure dependence and to adjust the 2001 census population estimates.     

Sample size calculations for clinical studies allowing for uncertainty about the variance

One of the most important steps in the design of a pharmaceutical clinical trial is the estimation of the sample size. For a superiority trial the sample size formula (to achieve a stated power) would be based on a given clinically meaningful difference and a value for the population variance. The formula is typically used as though this population variance is known whereas in reality it is unknown and is replaced by an estimate with its associated uncertainty. The variance estimate would be derived from an earlier similarly designed study (or an overall estimate from several previous studies) and its precision would depend on its degrees of freedom. This paper provides a solution for the calculation of sample sizes that allows for the imprecision in the estimate of the sample variance and shows how traditional formulae give sample sizes that are too small since they do not allow for this uncertainty with the deficiency being more acute with fewer degrees of freedom. It is recommended that the methodology described in this paper should be used when the sample variance has less than 200 degrees of freedom.